新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Stealthy Yuan Support Ebbs, Denting Hedge Fund Trade
新闻日期：2024-09-16
数据显示，这项贸易在8月开始减弱，分析人士表示这是由于外汇回流需求下降。
原来的策略是海外投资者将美元作为担保物，换取人民币，并用所得资金购买短期债券。但随着中国央行对美元的需求减少，人民币已稳定，这种支持方式不再必要。
结果，对冲基金将面临新的投资挑战。这些基金一直以来都热衷于购买中国短期债券，即便其他类型的政府和半官方债券在市场上无人问津。现在，外汇资金流入速度放缓，可能导致外国投资者对中国资产的负面情绪恶化。
分析人士表示，从长期来看，这种策略变化意味着对冲基金在2025年第一季度和第二季度面临更大的挑战。如果这些交易变得不再可靠，在到期时将不会被继续投入。
数据显示，一年期美元-人民币交叉汇率从8月份开始快速上涨，并保持较高水平。这表明海外投资者对为一元换取美元的期限贷款需求下降了。中国外汇市场的交易员表示，过去几个月，国有银行从净借入变为净还款美元。他们要求不透露姓名，因为信息私人。
原文摘要：
A lucrative trade that offered hedge funds a way to ratchet up profits on Chinese debt instruments is starting to lose its charm.Data due this week may show a popular strategy — which had resulted in a fourfold increase in foreigners’ holdings of Chinese bank notes over the past year — has lost momentum in August, analysts said. The trade involves overseas investors lending out their dollars in return for the yuan and using the proceeds to buy short-term bonds. on the strategy have dwindled due to a lower demand for foreign-exchange in the swaps market.The development is significant because it’s partly due to easing dollar borrowing by Chinese state banks, which had been using foreign-exchange obtained in the swaps market to support the yuan in spot trading. Now with the Chinese currency stabilizing, the need for such a tacit way of intervention has moderated. Read more: But that’s bad news for hedge funds. China’s short-term bank debt had been a favorite for them — the securities attracted for a record-smashing 11 straight months — even when government and quasi-sovereign notes were losing buyers. It’s likely to narrow investment options for global investors in China as a sluggish and hurt sentiment in yuan assets. “Foreign inflows should have slowed a lot,” said , head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. “The bigger risk is the fourth quarter and the first half of 2025. If the trade becomes less attractive when those previous trades mature, the portion being rolled over is likely to be smaller.”One-year dollar-yuan swap points surged the most since 2008 in August and stayed elevated since then, suggesting returns from lending the greenback in return for the Chinese currency have slumped. Last month, overseas investors lent out $1 billion of foreign-exchange with one-year swaps, significantly lower than the amount seen previously, according to two traders. State banks shifted from being net borrowers to lenders of dollars, they added. The traders asked not to be identified as the information was private. On top of fading intervention by state banks, bets that the Federal Reserve will start slashing interest rate as soon as have also contributed to the shift.Before the such a move, Fed’s rate hikes and Chinese state banks’ efforts to bolster the yuan sent one-year swap points to the lowest since the global financial crisis.In July, overseas investors bought a net 118 billion yuan ($16.6 billion) of NCDs, or negotiable certificates of deposit, boosting their holdings of the debt to a record 1.1 trillion yuan, according to the latest data from the Shanghai Clearing House.The one-year on AAA rated bank bonds climbed to a two-month high at the end of August before easing. The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.10 on Monday.
