新闻来源：www.abcnews.go.com
原文地址：Stock market today: Dow flirts with record as most of Wall Street drifts in mixed trading
新闻日期：2024-09-16
美国股市今日：道琼斯工业平均指数接近纪录水平，但多数华尔街股票交易呈涨跌不一走势。
美联储会议即将举行，美国股市保持震荡状态。标普500指数在午后交易中下跌了0.1%，早间曾一度波动，目前仅比7月的最高点低0.8%。
道琼斯工业平均指数午时上涨134点，涨幅为0.3%；纳斯达克综合指数则下跌了0.9%。Oracle股价上涨6.2%，继续上周开始的强劲走势；Alcoa股价也上扬8%，原因是公司表示将以股票和现金形式向沙特阿拉伯矿业公司出售其在沙特的一家合资企业的股份，交易额为9.5亿美元加1.5亿美元。
但一些知名科技股表现不佳，苹果股价下跌3.1%，Nvidia股价则下降2.5%。美联储将在本周召开重要会议，预计将首次降低利率已有四年之久的主要联邦基金利率，以缓解经济压力。
目前市场预计，美联储将把降幅扩大至半个百分点，可能性达到59%；这一比例在过去周末为50%，一周前只有30%。
一个半个百分点的降息与四分之一个百分点的降息听起来可能并无太大区别，但实际上对经济会产生广泛影响。降低利率可以减轻经济压力，但也会使通胀更具活力。
美联储已将主要联邦基金利率维持在20多年的高位，希望减缓经济增长速度以应对高通胀。由于通胀已在夏季达到顶峰后有所下降，美联储表示现在可以把更多精力放在支撑缓慢的就业市场和整体经济增长上。一些批评人士认为，这可能来的稍晚了些，增加了经济衰退的风险。
如果美联储决定降低利率半个百分点，摩根士丹利的战略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，短期内股市将看到正面消息；但前提是美联储能让投资者相信它不是因为担心经济衰退才做出这一决定。
至于接下来三个月到六个月的股市走势，威尔逊认为关键在于就业市场的表现。如果就业市场减弱，不论美联储降低利率是半个百分点还是四分之一个百分点，股市都有可能下跌。
在债券市场上，十年期国债收益率从周五晚间的3.66%下降至3.63%，同期限的联邦基金利率期货收益率也从3.59%降至3.55%。
尽管早晨发布的一项报告显示，纽约州制造业九月份重返增长，但这一消息令经济学家感到意外。由于高利率对这一地区经济造成了较大影响，他们原本预期该地在九月会继续出现萎缩。
华尔街方面，卡尔·伊坎的企业集团Icahn Enterprises股价上涨8.5%，公司表示美国法官已驳回了一起针对其的集体诉讼案。
化肥生产商美盛公司股价下跌4.9%，原因是该公司称矿山电气设备故障和飓风弗兰西丝的影响将在当前季度降低其钾肥和磷肥产量。
而在国际市场方面，欧洲和亚洲多数股市表现平稳，香港恒生指数上涨0.3%。上周末发布的数据显示，中国8月份的经济增速进一步放缓。
日本、中国大陆和韩国的市场因假期休市。
原文摘要：
U.S. stock indexes are drifting near their records Monday as Wall Street gears up for the most anticipated meeting of the Federal Reserve in years.
The S&P 500 was 0.1% lower in afternoon trading after flitting between gains and losses earlier in the morning. It’s sitting just 0.8% below its all-time high set in July.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 134 points, or 0.3%, as of 12:51 p.m. Eastern time, after climbing above its record closing high earlier in the day. The Nasdaq composite was down 0.9%.
Oracle rose 6.2% to help lead the market, continuing a strong run that began last week with a better-than-expected profit report. Alcoa also jumped 8% after saying it would sell its ownership stake in a Saudi Arabian joint venture to Saudi Arabian Mining Co. for $950 million in stock and $150 million in cash. But drops for some influential Big Tech stocks dragged on indexes, including declines of 3.1% for Apple and 2.5% for Nvidia.
Treasury yields eased in the bond market ahead of what’s expected to be the week’s main event. On Wednesday, the widespread expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut its main interest rate for the first time in more than four years to deliver some relief to the economy.
The only question is by how much the Fed will cut. Traders are shifting more bets toward a larger-than-usual move of half a percentage point, according to data from CME Group. They’re anticipating a 59% chance the Fed will go beyond the more traditional cut of a quarter of a percentage point. That’s up from 50% on Friday and just 30% a week ago.
The difference between a half-point cut and a quarter may sound academic, but it can have far-ranging effects. While lowering rates relieves pressure on the economy, it can also give inflation more fuel.
The Federal Reserve has been keeping its main interest rate at a two-decade high in hopes of slowing the economy enough to stifle high inflation. With inflation having eased substantially from its peak two summers ago, the Fed has said it can turn more focus to bolstering the slowing job market and economy. Some critics say it may be moving too late, increasing the risk of a possible recession.
A Fed cut of half a percentage point would likely be the best case for the stock market in the very short term, according to Michael Wilson and other strategists at Morgan Stanley. But that’s only if the Fed can convince investors it’s not getting forced into a bigger-than-usual cut because of worries about a recession, among other factors.
Still, the more important thing for where stocks are heading over the next three to six months will be how well the job market holds up, according to Wilson. If employment weakens, stocks could fall regardless of whether the Fed cuts by half or a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 3.63% from 3.66% late Friday. The two-year yield, which moves more closely with expectations for the Fed, eased to 3.55% from 3.59%.
That was despite a report in the morning showing manufacturing in New York state returned to growth in September. That surprised economists, who were expecting another month of contraction for an area of the economy that’s been hit hard by high interest rates.
On Wall Street, Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises rose 8.5% after it said a U.S. judge dismissed a proposed class-action lawsuit against the company, one based on allegations by a research firm that looks for financial irregularities and tries to profit when the stock prices fall.
Fertilizer producer Mosaic fell 4.9% after it said electrical equipment failures at mines and Hurricane Francine will reduce its production of potash and phosphate in the current quarter.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed amid mostly modest movements across Europe and Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.3% after data released over the weekend showed China’s economy slowed further in August.
Markets in Japan, mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays.
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AP Writers Matt Ott and Zimo Zhong contributed.
