新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Bond Flows Signal Stealth Currency Intervention Is Fading
新闻日期：2024-09-19
中国银行债券的外资购买突然放缓，因为人民币升值和可能减少的外汇干预使其吸引力下降。
根据周三发布的数据，外国机构在8月份仅买入了28亿元（约合4亿美元）的银行债券，这一数额仅为上个月的四分之一，也是自去年10月以来的最低值。
此前，中国央行提供有吸引力的回报率，以吸引外国投资者用美元换取人民币。虽然目前尚不清楚其中有多少通过美元兑人民币的swap交易完成，但据 Bloomberg 早些时候报道，中国银行在过去一年已积累了超过1000亿美元的swap头寸。
中国银行的外汇仓位帮助稳定了人民币，尤其是在今年年初对美元贬值时。然而，这个季度中美元几乎全面上涨，因为投资者预期美联储将降低利率。这减少了需要进行人民币兑美元的swap交易。
澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团有限公司的高级中国策略师表示：“随着人民币贬值压力减小，NCD 的套利机会也随之减少。预计外国机构对NCD 的持仓将进一步下降，因为这笔交易即将到期。”
在中国境内市场中，一名持有美元的投资者可以通过购买一年期 NCD 获得约4.7%的回报，而三个月前的同期回报率为6%，Bloomberg 的计算结果显示。
相比之下，美国公债一年期的收益率仅为1.6%。8月份人民币兑美元升值近2%，为九个月来表现最佳，因为投资者加速押注美联储将降低利率。美联储周三宣布降息0.5个百分点，并暗示未来几个月还将继续降息。
原文摘要：
Global funds’ purchases of Chinese bank notes suddenly slowed in August as a strengthening yuan and a likely pullback in currency intervention made a popular less appealing. Foreign institutions bought a net of just 28 billion yuan ($4 billion) of issued by Chinese banks in August, according to data released Wednesday. That’s barely a quarter of the purchases in the prior month, and the least since October 2023. The short-term notes had become popular with foreign traders looking to park their yuan, after Chinese state banks offered enticing returns to swap for their dollars. While it’s unclear how much of the NCD purchases were by dollar-yuan swaps, Chinese lenders had built swap positions exceeding $100 billion since last year, Bloomberg reported earlier this month.The foreign-exchange positions built by Chinese banks helped support the yuan when it was weakening earlier in the year against the dollar. However, the greenback has against just about every Asian currency this quarter as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. That eroded the need for the Chinese swap trades. Read more: Easing yuan depreciation pressure has shrunk the arbitrage opportunity in NCDs, said , a senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. He expects foreigners’ position in the securities to further decline as the trades mature. A trader who exchanges dollars for the yuan in China’s onshore swap market and invests in one-year NCDs can obtain a return of about 4.7%, compared with 6% three month ago, according to calculations by Bloomberg. The returns are still higher than the one-year US Treasury yield. The yuan appreciated nearly 2% against the greenback in August, its best month in nine months, as traders ramped up bets on the Fed’s easing. The Fed cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday and signaled further reductions in the months ahead.
