欢迎来到备受赞誉的通讯栏目，我是 [姓名] 。每日为您剖析市场与经济的头号新闻，并深入解读它们如何影响您的财富。
就在年初时，我预判中国将主导2024年的经济趋势。然而这次判断有些偏早或不准确——尽管开始展现出希望的迹象，但中国的主流股市 CSI 300 现在成为少数几个在全球市场中表现不佳的市场之一。今年，中国经济的表现远逊于预期，投资者对政府或中央银行采取行动的期望一直未获满足。
不过，在这一方面，当局似乎已不再等待观望。中国现在已经启动了其“货币核武器”。虽然详细列出所有涉及的术语可能会让人头痛不已，但我将精简概括如下：
中国央行采取了一系列包括降低关键利率、尤其是房贷利率的举措，并降低了中国银行需要保留的储备金比例，以便释放更多信贷资金流通。此外，他们还给出了未来的引导信息——即会有更多的减息动作。
为了特别支持股市，中国央行已经安排了支持措施，鼓励中国银行业帮助提振股票市场，同时提及“稳定基金”。中国政府亦增加了对地方政府购买未售出房屋的支持，并下调了购买第二套房产的存款要求。简言之，在中国的标准下，这是大规模货币政策宽松的一次集中行动。
经济学团队形容这种广度和深度前所未有的政策变动是“惊人的”，与2008年的情况类似。因此不难理解为何股市对此短期内表现出积极反应。它确实大动作，但是否足够？
问题的关键在于——这是否能够扭转乾坤？虽然存在质疑的声音，此次的举动在体量上确实是庞大的，但它无法从根本上解决中国面临的困境。这种由房地产泡沫引发的问题是所有经济挑战中最棘手的一种。泡沫渗透到经济的每个角落，而相比科技泡沫能带来全球电缆网络或数据中心这样的资产，房地产泡沫提供的只是遗留资产——这些资产将不幸运的所有者牢牢地锁在了某个地点。
更糟糕的是，与科技泡沫不同，房地产泡沫不会为社会提供有用的产出，反而造成闲置资源并限制了所有者的流动性。这种崩溃还损害消费者的资产负债表，使得消费者无法消费；同时，也损害银行的资产负债表，使银行难以放贷。如果杀死了两大经济增长来源——那么所剩不多。
总之，在解决经济困境方面，经济学家和央行确实应更多思考如何避免房地产泡沫的问题，并提出解决方案。至于对于您这样的投资者而言，投资中国意味着什么呢？
### 如何应对中国的复苏
请明确的是，直接投资中国的风险依然存在。我不建议将任何资金投入到有可能因政府不尊重财产权利而使所有者投资归零的风险中。
虽然市场估值较低，并且似乎出现了恢复的迹象，但这并不代表我会满意地进行此类投资。
但无论如何，市场确实是廉价的。Gavekal团队的Charles Gave在一段时间内一直在推动中国股票投资并建议投资者将其部分黄金收益投资于中国市场——1盎司黄金现在可以购买的中国股市份额比十年前多了两倍。
对于那些认为目前是中国股市转向时机合适的人来说，这个提议很有吸引力。而对于像我这样的谨慎人士来说，存在多种间接投资中国的方式，如果相信市场将有逆转，则应关注这些可能性。
### 其他潜在影响
中国的复苏可能引发通胀压力。在经济低迷期间，它作为一个通缩力量发挥作用；若中国重新崛起，全球经济增长与商品价格相应增长的情况下，很难不导致通胀现象。这将是另一个值得探讨的话题。
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### 市场概览
– **FTSE 100**：上涨 0.2%，约8,280点。
– **FTSE 250**：下跌 0.2%，约20,810点。
– **黄金**：每盎司下跌 0.1%，至2,625美元。
– **布伦特原油**：上涨约2.2% 至每桶75.50美元。
– **比特币**：上涨 0.3%，至每币63,500美元。
– **以太坊**：下跌 0.8%，至每币2,640美元。
– **英镑对美元**：上涨0.3%，约为1.338美元。
– **欧元对英镑**：保持不变，约€1.20。
欲获取即时市场动态和分析，请关注我们的Twitter账号：[链接]。若您尚未订阅Merryn Talks Money播客，强烈推荐您这样做——对于iOS用户而言，应用商店内的搜索即可；Android用户可选择Google Play或您的喜爱的播客应用程序进行订阅。在周三值得关注的主要新闻包括：
– 现今政治和政治干预对市场的影响远超前2008年全球化、共识与选民冷漠的时代。因此，请务必阅读同事Allegra Stratton的每日简报——以保持最新的跟踪。
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让我们共同关注市场动态，并期待每一天的财经故事！
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译文旨在忠实再现原文的核心内容和信息结构，力求表达流畅、准确地传达原作者的观点与论断。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：UK Investors: What Does China’s Bazooka Mean for Your Money?
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
Welcome to the award-winning newsletter. I’m . Every week day I look at the biggest stories in markets and economics, and explain what it all means for your money.At the start of this year I said that China was the for 2024. I was wrong (or perhaps early. Which is the same thing). It started off promisingly, but the main Chinese market — the CSI 300 — is now among the few global markets that’s actually down on the year. China’s economic performance has underperformed even low expectations this year, and investor hopes that the government or central bank would “do something” have thus far been persistently wide of the mark.On the latter front at least though, it appears the authorities are done waiting. China has now unleashed its monetary “bazooka.” A full list of the acronyms involved would be painful for me to write and for you to read. So I’ll .It’s easier to quote the Bloomberg Economics team, who described the Chinese central bank (the People’s Bank of China, or PBOC) stimulus package as “eye-popping,” being both larger and earlier than expected. “This will be a day to remember for China’s monetary policy,” according to Bloomberg’s chief Asia economist, Chang Shu.You’ve got cuts to key interest rates, including mortgage rates. You’ve got cuts to the amount of money that Chinese banks have to keep in reserve (so they can lend more), plus a bit of forward guidance to the effect that “more cuts are coming.”There’s also support for the stock market specifically, with the PBOC backing Chinese banks to prop up the equity market, and talk of a “stabilization fund.” The PBOC is also expanding its support for local governments to buy up unsold houses, and cutting deposit requirements on buying second homes.In all, by Chinese standards, it’s a big monetary policy loosening, and it’s all being done at once. As the economics team put it, “the simultaneous changes in such a broad array of PBOC policy levers is unprecedented.” This is the sort of thing they did when 2008 hit, for example. So it’s no wonder that stocks liked it, at least in the short term. It’s Big. But Is It Enough?The obvious question is: will this help to turn the leviathan around? There’s plenty of scepticism. This may be a big move, but China’s fundamental problem is that it’s in a balance sheet recession, of the sort that dogged Japan for literally decades.It’s been dragged down by a burst housing bubble. This is absolutely the worst sort of economic problem to deal with, because a property bubble seeps into every corner of the economy.Worse still, unlike a technology bubble, a housing bubble doesn’t give you anything useful, like a global cable network or a load of data centres (I’m jumping the gun here on the latter but – you know, come on).Instead you just get a load of stranded assets that tie their unlucky owners to one location. Not only that, but a collapsed housing bubble cripples consumer balance sheets, so consumers can’t spend, and also cripples bank balance sheets, so banks can’t lend. If you kill off both of those sources of growth – well, you’re not left with a lot.On reflection, economists and central banks really should spend a lot more time thinking about housing bubbles specifically, and how to avoid them. Anyway, all of that aside – what are the investment implications for the likes of you and I, if indeed there are any? How to Play a Chinese RecoveryTo be very clear, about investing directly in China have not gone away. I don’t like any investment where there’s a reasonable, if low probability case, of your investment going to zero because the people in charge are no longer willing to respect your property rights.So just because the market is cheap, and there are at least glimmers of a catalyst to turn things around, doesn’t mean I’d be happy to invest there.That said, there’s no doubt that the market is cheap. Charles Gave over at Gavekal, who has been banging the drum on Chinese stocks for a while, even suggests taking some profits on gold (which he has also been a fan of) and putting the money into Chinese shares – one ounce of gold will buy you more than twice as many Chinese equities as it did 10 years ago.So for those willing to take a shot on the time now being right for the Chinese stock market, I can see why you might be tempted. But for more cautious folk like me, there are a great many ways out there to invest indirectly in China, should you believe a turnaround is on the cards.I don’t pay a lot of attention to the luxury goods sector, but one of the reasons it’s been in trouble recently is because the Chinese consumer is an important customer and they’ve been missing in action.Maybe there are some opportunities there – perhaps particularly so in France, which is also being rejected by investors because of its domestic problems? Over on Bloomberg Opinion, Andrea Felsted .There might be a similar story here for Germany’s woe-stricken economy and its most China-sensitive manufacturing sectors. And in the UK’s own FTSE 100, mining stocks already rather like the idea of a Chinese stimulus. I’ll have to leave you to do your own specific research, but they’re all ideas that may well be worth further investigation.There are some other issues that could arise from a genuine Chinese comeback. China has been acting as a deflationary economic force during its slump. If China wakes up again, and has a corresponding impact on global economic activity and global commodity prices, it’s hard to see how that’s not inflationary. But that’s a topic for another day. Send any feedback, opinions or questions to and I’ll print the best. If you were forwarded this email by a friend or colleague, .Looking at wider markets — the FTSE 100 is up 0.2% at around 8,280. The FTSE 250 is down 0.2% at 20,810. Gold is down 0.1% at $2,625 an ounce, and oil (as measured by Brent crude) is up about 2.2% to $75.50 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 0.3% at $63,500 per coin, while Ethereum is down 0.8% at $2,640. The pound is up 0.3% against the US dollar at $1.338, and is flat against the euro at €1.20. Follow for up-to-the-minute news and analysis that move markets. If you haven’t yet subscribed to the Merryn Talks Money podcast, I highly recommend you do so. ; fellow Android users, you could go with , or just the podcast app of your choice. The main stories to watch out for on Wednesday include: We’re in a world where politics and political interventions matter far more to markets than they did in the pre-2008 era of consensus, globalisation, and voter apathy. So be sure to read my colleague Allegra Stratton’s daily newsletter, , to keep up. And if you want up-to-the-minute news commentary with the odd joke flung in, follow me on .
