中国近日在太平洋海域试射了洲际弹道导弹，这一罕见之举引发了地区紧张局势升级，涉及多国间存在的重叠领土声索以及中美两国竞相展示影响力的态势。
中国人民解放军火箭部队执行常规军事训练时实施了此次发射行动，并明确指出该活动未针对任何特定国家或目标。国防部的声明强调，所试射的洲际弹道导弹携带了模拟核武头，并最终落入预定海区，但具体位置并未予以披露。
历史上，中国在公海进行洲际导弹试射的情况并不多见，上一次类似行动可追溯至1980年5月，当时发射了一枚DF-5型洲际导弹进入南太平洋。通常情况下，解放军会选择在新疆等内陆地区或渤海进行此类弹道导弹的试验发射。
专家分析称，中国选择太平洋作为试射地点，不仅彰显了其核力量的增长，同时也向美国及其该地区的盟友发出了警告信号。“只有中美对抗，没有其他潜在观众。”伦敦SOAS中国研究所所长史唐教授如此评价。
本次试射前数周内，预计中美元首将进行通话，而这一事件则进一步提升了与日本、菲律宾等国的安全紧张气氛，并继续着与自辖台湾之间的摩擦——后者在大陆官方视角下被视为其固有领土。台防部已表示关注导弹发射及其周边军事演习。
新加坡拉扎南国际研究学校高级研究员德鲁·斯汤认为，本次试射是对当前国际秩序的直接示威。“中国强调了自身的忍耐度有限，并且准备利用包括核武器在内的最强大武力来威慑或惩罚潜在对手。”他指出。
值得注意的是，在过去一年内爆发的一系列腐败案件中，多名火箭部队高官因涉嫌违规被拘留。这一行动可能意在在国内方面巩固信心、稳定局势的同时，向外界表明问题已被解决，并加强了对国内民众的安抚与国际社会的信息传递。
中国拥有全球最大规模的现役武装力量和最庞大的海军实力，其军事预算仅次于美国，位居世界第二。根据美方数据，中国也拥有印太地区最大的空军，在其战斗机中超过一半属于第四代或第五代型号。此外，中国还积累了大量的导弹库存、隐形战机、具备投射核武器能力的轰炸机、先进的水面舰艇以及核动力潜艇。
在习近平领导下的数年中，作为中央军事委员会主席，他积极推进军队现代化进程，投资于包括隐形战斗机、航空母舰在内的高科技军事技术，并不断扩大其核武库。
中国国防预算自2015年以来翻番有余，尽管国内经济增长速度明显放缓。美国国防部去年的报告指出，中国正加强中国人民解放军在对抗强敌时“能战善胜”的能力。
该报告还估计，截至今年5月，中国已拥有超过500枚可操作核弹头，并有望在未来十年内增加至逾千枚可操作核弹头。
至于中国具体的核武库规模，则未有公开数据。相比之下，俄罗斯据称拥有超过5580枚战术核弹头——包括为现役部队储备的4380枚核弹头和另外1200枚退役弹头等待拆解。
同样地，美国的核弹头数量则被评估在5044枚左右。
除中国外，具备洲际导弹的国家寥寥可数，而此类试射通常限于各自领土范围内。北韩自2017年以来已进行多次洲际导弹发射试验，包括去年12月试射一款固体燃料型洲际弹道导弹，最终在朝鲜半岛与日本之间海域坠落。
美国近期也从加州试射了两枚无武装的洲际导弹，并将其导向马绍尔群岛的一个测试区域。
此外，中国洲际弹道导弹试射事件凸显了其在全球范围内的核力量及军事能力的发展趋势。这不仅引起了国际社会的关注，也是对中国外交政策和地缘政治意图的一次明确表态。在未来，中国在维护国家安全、领土完整与推动全球治理方面将持续展现出更加坚定的决心与实力。
通过上述分析可见，中国洲际弹道导弹试射事件是多层面复杂因素相互作用的产物，不仅反映了其军事现代化进程的实质进展，还涉及战略意图展示、地区安全形势演变及国际关系动态等多个维度。在未来，这将进一步影响全球政治格局和军事平衡，并成为关注中国军力发展的重要议题。
新闻来源：www.abcnews.go.com
原文地址：What’s behind China’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday in a rare occurrence, adding to tensions in the region where multiple countries have overlapping territorial claims and both Beijing and Washington seek to project their influence. The launch was part of routine training by the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, which is in charge of conventional and nuclear missile operations, and was not aimed at any country or target, the Defense Ministry said in a statement. The ICBM, carrying a dummy warhead, landed in a designated area in the sea, the ministry said, without specifying where exactly. China rarely tests ICBMs out in international waters, with some experts tracing the last such deployment back to May 1980, when Beijing launched a DF-5 missile into the South Pacific. Usually, the PLA test-fires ballistic missiles in China’s remote Xinjiang region or in the Bohai Sea. China choosing the Pacific Ocean as the location for test-firing its missile comes across as both a display of its increased nuclear capabilities and as a warning to the United States and its allies in the region, experts say. “There is no other potential audience, as China does not expect to have to confront the EU or the U.K. militarily,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London. The test also comes weeks ahead of an expected call between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. It marks an increase in regional security tensions with U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, and a continuation of frictions with the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday it was monitoring the missile launch, along with other military exercises by China in the region. The launch, coinciding with the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, "is a pretty blunt signal” to the international order, said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and a former U.S. defense official. “China is signaling that its forbearance has limits, that it is prepared to use its most powerful weapons to deter adversaries or punish them if needed, if deterrence fails,” he said. Wednesday's launch also follows a series of corruption arrests this year that ensnared several leading officers in its rocket corps on allegations of misconduct. Its aim could be to both provide assurances at home and signal to the world that the issues have been resolved. China boasts the world’s largest standing army and the biggest navy. Its military budget is the second highest in the world, after that of the U.S. According to the U.S., China also has the largest air force in the Indo-Pacific, with more than half of its fighter planes consisting of fourth or fifth generation models. China also boasts a massive stockpile of missiles, along with stealth aircraft, bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons, advanced surface ships and nuclear-powered submarines. In his more than a decade in power, Xi, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, has spearheaded the armed forces’ modernization, with investments in high-tech military technologies from stealth fighters to aircraft carriers and a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons. China’s defense budget has more than doubled since 2015, even as the country’s economic growth rate has slowed considerably. A U.S. Department of Defense report last year said China has continued to strengthen the PLA’s ability to “fight and win wars against a strong enemy.” The U.S. report also estimated China had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023 and was on track to accumulate more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. China has not revealed the size of its nuclear arsenal. In comparison, Russia is believed to have a total inventory of more than 5,580 warheads — including 4,380 stockpiled warheads for operational forces, as well as an additional 1,200 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement — according to a report this year by the Federation of American Scientists. The same report put the U.S. nuclear warheads at 5,044. Few countries have ICBMs in their arsenal, and testing is usually restricted to their own territory. North Korea has carried out multiple ICBM tests since 2017, including firing a developmental solid-fueled missile in December that came down in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. The U.S. earlier this year fired two unarmed ICBMs equipped with reentry vehicles from California and brought them down on an American test site in the Marshall Islands. ___ Associated Press journalists Emily Wang Fujiyama in Beijing and David Rising in Bangkok contributed to this report.
