斯里兰卡新领导人迪萨那亚凯面临的关键挑战，在于如何在与国家两大关键伙伴印度与中国的关系上保持平衡，尤其是在吸引外资、推动经济复苏之际。在周末选举中作为非传统马克思主义政党人民解放前线（也称为JVP）的候选人，55岁的迪萨那亚凯出人意料地战胜了政治老将们，后者被公众视为导致国家遭遇史上最严重的经济危机的原因。
在内政上，他需要履行承诺改善民众生活、加强政府透明度并缓解国际贷款机构施加的紧缩措施。与此同时，他也需要平衡与印度和中国的关系。斯里兰卡地处全球最繁忙的海运线附近，并一直受到这两个地区性强国的关注。两国都曾经影响着该国2,200万居民的政治格局。
分析人士指出，迪萨那亚凯可能会尝试在印度与中国之间保持等距，但平衡这两大强权的能力将在未来几周接受考验。“这只是一条钢丝绳的行走”，政治分析师维拉加蒂·塔纳巴辛汉姆表示。
印度总理莫迪和中国国家主席习近平都在迪萨那亚凯当选后立即向他表示了祝贺。
在选举中胜出的是由迪萨那亚凯领导的人民解放前线党与民族人民力量联合政府，其自认为是马克思主义者，但现支持自由市场经济。过去，该党和迪萨那亚凯被视为更倾向于与中国合作。
分析家认为这可能会促进更多的中国投资，因为在中国对斯里兰卡贷款导致国家债务增加并引发经济崩溃之后，两国之间的资金流动有所放缓。而印度则通过大规模的资金援助和物资供应获得了对该邻国的影响力增长。
当选后不久，北京表示希望与迪萨那亚凯政府合作推动经济发展，并在共建“一带一路”倡议中加强建设。在迪萨那亚凯领导下，“更多的中国资金可能流入斯里兰卡”，新德里战略防御研究理事会创始人哈皮蒙·乔贝说，同时这也让印度担忧。
对于邻国而言，印度稳定、国家利益和国家安全是决策时需要考虑的重要因素，迪萨那亚凯对《联合新闻》表示，在过去几周选举前的采访中。 “我们主要的目标是区域安全，不会允许任何一方利用我们的陆地、海洋和空域来制造不稳定。”
以往，中国研究船停靠斯里兰卡港口已引起新德里的担忧，担心北京在印度洋影响力的增强。尽管迪萨那亚凯的政治联盟已经转变为倾向于实际合作的自由民主政体，以方便与各种国家进行交流，但他仍然是一个马克思主义政党领导人，并表示支持自由市场经济。
国内部分选民支持他，其中包括对印度持亲反感态度的一群国民，这可能给其进一步拉近与中国关系带来压力。
“他可能会在内部公众面前抬高中国形象来提升个人信誉，甚至以此为与印度谈判获得最大的讨价还价权”，资深研究员孔斯坦蒂诺·克里斯托弗表示。
迪萨那亚凯的当选标志着尼泊尔、马尔代夫等国家近来转向中国方向的趋势，后者现在拥有更多亲华领导人的现象。同时，孟加拉国上月排除了与印度合作的关系也可能考验新德里的地区影响力。
但过去四年中向南亚输出的中国援助和信贷增速放缓。这使得区域内国家意识到他们需要重新审视与印度的关系，孔斯坦蒂诺·克里斯托弗指出。
同样地，在面对印度时迪萨那亚凯也展现出务实的态度，而新德里也渴望加强联系。
2月前选举宣布后数个月内，他被邀请访问印度，并会见了国家外长。在结果公布后不久，印度驻科伦坡大使成为首个与迪萨那亚凯会面的人。
作为邻国，“我们需要关注印度的稳定、国家利益和国家安全，在做出决策时”，他说。“我们的主要目标是区域安全，我们不会允许任何一方利用我们的陆地、海洋和空域来制造不稳定。”
过去，中国研究船在斯里兰卡港口停靠曾引发新德里的担忧，因为北京在这个地区影响力的增强让印度对海上安全感到关注。
科伦坡基于的分析人士维拉加蒂·塔纳巴辛汉姆指出，尽管迪萨那亚凯的政治联盟已经成为追求多边合作并实现与国际伙伴的平衡的实际民主政党。尽管他领导着一个马克思主义党派，但现在他主张支持自由市场经济。然而，国内反印选民的支持可能为迪萨那亚凯更多接近中国施加压力。
“他最初可能会通过强调与中国的关系来吸引国内的支持者，以此作为谈判与印度更强议价能力的手段。”孔斯坦蒂诺·克里斯托弗解释道。
新闻来源：www.abcnews.go.com
原文地址：Sri Lanka’s new leader must balance ties between regional powerhouses India and China
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
The Marxist lawmaker who won Sri Lanka’s presidency faces a key challenge in how to balance ties with his country’s two most crucial partners, India and China, as he seeks to draw foreign investment and pull the economy out of the doldrums. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 55, won the weekend election in an extraordinary political upset against an old political guard that voters blame for tipping the country into its worst economic crisis two years ago. Dissanayake must now deliver on promises to improve Sri Lankans’ lives, clean up government and ease austerity measures imposed by international lenders. But looking beyond Sri Lanka's borders, he also must navigate the rivalry between regional powerhouses India, the country's next-door neighbor, and China, which Dissanayake's party traditionally has leaned toward. Located on one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, Sri Lanka has long been eyed by the two regional rivals. Sri Lanka governments have swung between the two camps, and New Delhi and Beijing have intensely jockeyed for influence in the island nation of 22 million. “Dissanayake will try to keep both India and China at an equal distance” but his ability to balance them is likely to be tested in the coming weeks, said Veeragathy Thanabalasingham, a Colombo-based political analyst. “It’s going to be a tightrope walk,” he added. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping both congratulated Dissanayake soon after he won. The victory was by the National People's Power coalition led by Dissanayake's People's Liberation Front — also known as Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or JVP — which considers itself Marxist, though it now expresses support for a free market economy. Dissanayake and his party have in the past been seen as more ideologically aligned with China. Analysts say that could mean drawing more Chinese investment, which slowed after the Sri Lankan government was blamed for taking on too many Chinese loans that added to the country’s debt as its economy collapsed in 2022. Chinese money quickly became a cautionary tale in the country, while the economic crisis allowed India to gain some sway as it stepped in with massive financial and material assistance to its neighbor. Just after Dissanayake was sworn in, Beijing said it wants to work with the new government on boosting development and cooperation in building China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Under Dissanayake, “there’s a possibility of more Chinese money coming into Sri Lanka,” said Happymon Jacob, founder of the New Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defense Research, adding that this could concern India. For New Delhi, Dissanayake and his JVP party could throw up fresh challenges. The party has previously criticized what it called “Indian expansionism” in the region, and Dissanayake has rejected devolving more power to Sri Lanka’s north and east, where most of the country’s Tamil minority lives - an issue close to India, given the community’s cultural links to the country’s Tamil Nadu state. While campaigning, Dissanayake also said he would shut down a wind power project funded by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani who is seen to be close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling it a “corrupt deal." Indian analysts say that Dissanayake's victory comes as a number of neighboring countries have recently drifted towards Beijing, including Nepal and the Maldives, which now have more pro-China leaders, and Bangladesh, where the ouster of a pro-India leader last month is also testing New Delhi’s regional power. But Chinese grants and lines of credit into South Asia overall have slowed down in the past four years, said Constantino Xavier, senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress. This has made countries in the region “realize that they have to reset their relations with India,” he added. Similarly, Dissanayake has been pragmatic in his approach towards India so far, with New Delhi also keen to engage. In February, months before the election was announced, the leader was invited to India where he met with the country’s foreign minister. And the Indian envoy in Colombo was the first to meet Dissanayake after the results were announced. As a neighboring country, “we need to be concerned over India’s stability, national interests and national security when taking decisions,” Dissanayake told The Associated Press in an interview a few weeks before the election. “Our main objective is the safety of the region and we will not allow any party to use our land, sea and air to create instability,” he added. In the past, Chinese research ships docked at Sri Lankan ports have stoked security concerns in New Delhi over Beijing’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean. Thanabalasingham, the Colombo-based analyst, said Dissanayake’s party has largely transformed into a liberal democratic party for practical purposes so that it is easier to deal with a range of countries and partners. Although he remains head of a Marxist party, he now says he supports a free market economy. But Dissanayake may need to woo domestic voters who backed him, including a nationalist segment of the population that is anti-India, which could add pressure to court China more. “He is likely to initially play up China to polish his credentials at home - even if only to extract maximum bargaining power with India,” said Xavier. ——- Pathi reported from New Delhi.
