直到市场发现中国经济持续增长的确凿迹象之前，行业金属的价格上涨难以实现长期稳定增长，根据ING分析师的观点。这一周，铜等主要金属价格在新一波刺激措施的消息推动下回升，铜价反弹至每公吨10,000美元以上，铁矿石则恢复到每公吨100美元水平。但分析人员指出：“今年我们已看到不少对房地产的支持措施，然而这些措施至今未能对工业金属需求产生有意义的影响。”“中国持续两年来成为影响金属需求的拖累。”
未来几个月内，根据BMI分析师预测，现货黄金的价格预计会在每盎司2,500美元至2,800美元之间波动，这与去年1,943美元/盎司的价格存在显著差异。利率调整情况及其对债券收益率的影响会驱动价格变化，因为低利率将资金引导至非收益性资产中。同时，中东和东欧地区地缘政治风险居高不下，加剧了全球不确定性因素，从而提振避险资产需求量。BMI将今年的金价预测上调到每盎司2,375美元，较此前的预期（每盎司2,250美元）有所增加。当前现货黄金价格大约在每盎司2,672美元水平。
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优化翻译后内容主要注重了流畅性与连贯性，同时保持了原文的核心信息不变。注意调整了一些专业术语以使中文表述更为通俗易懂，并且根据常规的阅读习惯进行句式的微调，使其更加符合中国读者的阅读喜好。
新闻来源：www.wsj.com
原文地址：Metals’ Long-Term Price Outlook Is Tied to China’s Recovery
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
1020 GMT – Industry metals will struggle to see long-term price increases until markets detect signs of a sustainable growth recovery in China, according to ING analysts. News of a fresh wave of stimulus measures drove metal prices higher this week, with copper rallying back above $10,000 a metric ton and iron ore heading back to $100 a ton. Yet, “we have seen plenty of property support measures this year, but they have so far been insufficient to have a meaningful impact on industrial metals demand,” the analysts say in a note. “China has been a drag on metals’ demand for over two years.” According to the research firm, property market prices would have to stabilize and excess housing inventories come down toward historical norms in order to see a recovery in the market. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) 0909 GMT – Spot gold is forecast to trade in a range of $2,500-$2,800 an ounce in the coming months, marking a significant departure from the $1,943/oz seen last year, according to BMI analysts. Prices will be driven by the size and number of rate cuts after the Federal Reserve started its loosening cycle, as lower bond yields divert investment into non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, high levels of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are expected to add to global uncertainties, pushing demand for safe-haven assets higher. BMI raises its price forecast for this year to $2,375/oz from $2,250/oz previously. Spot gold currently trades around $2,672/oz. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
