中国政府近期采取的刺激措施已显著提振了股市，引发了强劲的市场反弹——沪深300指数本周涨幅达到15.7%，创近16年来单周最大增幅。
周五，沪深300指数攀升至4.5%，使得这一指数自2008年11月全球金融危机爆发时中国股票价格剧烈波动以来表现最为强劲。香港的恒生指数（涵盖港中两地业务的公司）本周也上涨了12.8%。
上述涨幅使中国大陆沪深300指数转为年度正收益，并促使港股在2024年飙升21%，与过去一年来亚洲其他地区和美国股市的表现形成鲜明对比。强劲的增长势头对正在面临通缩压力、零售销售疲软及房地产市场崩盘的中国宏观经济来说，具有积极的影响。
近期中国政府推出了一系列举措：包括下调利率、降低首套房贷款首付比例等；其中部分措施自周五起生效，如允许商业银行以更大资产规模放贷。监管机构于周二召开发布会指出，金融机构应大力鼓励中期和长期资金进入市场，并打通社保基金、保险资本及财富管理等领域资金入市的瓶颈。
同时，针对低收入群体，地方政府计划在即将到来的国庆节前提供一次性补贴，显示出政府进一步向贫困人群直接提供援助的决心。具体数额尚不明确，但这一举措标志着中国政府对缓解极度贫困更为开放的态度。
中国政治局于本周四进行了会商，强调了采取更多措施推动经济恢复的重要性，尽管会议具体内容较为模糊，但也表明中国决策层倾向于通过财政手段稳定金融市场和经济增长，并提出了提升资本市场、引导中长期资金入市、解决社保基金、保险资本及财富管理等领域进入市场的瓶颈问题。同时，强调了房地产市场稳定。
当前，经济学界对中国是否将此次对低收入群体的援助举措视为更大规模社会安全网扩展以及增加消费者支出在经济中的作用开始的一种尝试存在分歧；中国政府领导人习近平多年来对此持有谨慎态度，并曾警告防止过度依赖社会保障可能带来的“福利主义陷阱”。
综上所述，中国政府近期的政策行动旨在稳定宏观经济、提振股市并支持低收入人群，以期在面对通缩压力、零售业疲软及房地产市场挑战时提供短期正面影响。然而，对于更广泛的社会安全网扩展和经济增长模式的深度改革，经济学者与政府高层间的讨论仍在持续之中，未来措施将对中国经济产生长远影响。
新闻来源：www.nytimes.com
原文地址：China Stocks Soar in Biggest Single-Week Jump Since 2008
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
An abrupt move by China’s leaders to prime the economy with stimulus has produced a powerful rally in the country’s stocks, which have posted their biggest single-week gain in nearly 16 years. On Friday, the CSI 300 index of big Chinese companies traded in Shanghai or Shenzhen rose 4.5 percent and was up 15.7 percent this week. The gain was the largest in a single week for the index since November 2008, when share prices were gyrating violently with the onset of the global financial crisis. The volatile Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, which includes a range of companies with activities in Hong Kong and in mainland China, was also up 12.8 percent this week. The increases pulled the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index into positive territory for the year and have sent Hong Kong stocks rocketing 21 percent higher in 2024. Those are big turnarounds for markets that have been lagging those in other parts of Asia and the United States for well over a year. Sharp gains in China could shore up public confidence, at least temporarily, as the Chinese economy faces broadly falling prices, weak retail sales and a housing meltdown. The government has been trying to rebuild confidence to persuade consumers and home buyers to start spending money. On Tuesday, China’s top financial regulators announced a package of measures, including interest rate cuts and requiring smaller mortgage down payments. One of the changes took effect on Friday: allowing commercial banks to lend a larger proportion of their assets. Shares got a particular boost on Tuesday when regulators said at a news conference that banks would be allowed to lend heavily to companies to repurchase their shares, as well as to major shareholders to buy larger stakes in companies. Both moves could provide stronger financial support for stock purchases and help elevate share prices. The next day, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance announced that local governments would be expected to make one-time payments to the needy before the start of a weeklong national holiday on Tuesday. “While the exact size and scope of the handout are still unknown, it marks a new willingness by the government to provide direct relief to the very poor,” said Xinran Andy Chen, an economics consultant in Beijing. China’s Politburo, the two dozen men who lead the ruling Communist Party, met on Thursday and called for further action to help the economy, without providing much detail. Steps mandated in the Politburo statement were vaguely phrased, but appeared to signal a further inclination to use government money to stabilize financial markets and the economy. “We must work hard to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market, and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, wealth management and other funds to enter the market,” said the statement, which also called for stabilizing the real estate market. Economists are divided on whether China will use the planned distribution of money to the poor as the starting point for a broader program to expand the social safety net and increase the role of consumer spending in the Chinese economy. Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, has expressed considerable wariness over the years about greater government support payments to the poor. He warned three years ago that China “must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism.”
