（故事最初于2023年7月29日发布。在2024年9月，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布了一项史无前例的刺激计划，以支持经济增长。）
在他二十多岁时，他的雄心壮志就将他从中国东部一个农村小村庄推进到了北京一所声名显赫的大学学习，并且即便从未亲赴海外，他也翻译过英文书籍。中国人民大学教授刘新回忆说，在上世纪80年代，当他与未来的中央银行行长潘功胜一起学习时，“我们班上的同学都认为潘非常出色，因为他虽然没有顶尖的学历背景，但能使用英语翻译成书本，这对我们来说并非易事。”
潘功胜的职业生涯一直以超出期望而著称。在21世纪的第一个十年里，作为国营银行的高管，他两次主导了创下世界纪录的首次公开募股活动，提升了全球投资者对中国市场的信心，并因此获得了“股市魔术师”的美誉。他后来管理着价值3万亿美元的外汇储备，并帮助监督整顿负债累累的房地产企业——制定了引发开发商包括中国恒大集团等一连串金融困境的“三条红线”政策。
随后，他的职业生涯似乎走到了尽头。在去年的一次重要领导人大会上，作为技术专家的他被从中国共产党精英中央委员会中去除，这是一个至少自上世纪90年代起就包括每一位央行行长在内的内核网络。分析人士将其解读为一个信号——这位书虫一般的潘功胜，在国家主席习近平的重塑过程中受到了冷落，因为他几乎没有什么政治联系。
然而，在本月，他们被证明是错的。现在60岁的潘功胜被任命为中国人民银行的行长，并首次与党委书记角色并行——自2018年习书记同时担任这一职务以来，这是第一次。他肩负起引导全球第二大经济体通过增长放缓阶段以及保护价值60万亿美元的国内金融系统的重要任务——尽管他的中央委员会成员身份可能削弱其政治影响力。
潘功胜面临的挑战是，中国正面临其发展奇迹终结的担忧。国家处于通货紧缩的边缘，庞大的房地产市场正在萎缩，企业信心正在减弱。这一切发生在人口减少、与主要贸易伙伴之间的地缘政治紧张加剧的同时发生。
“三个月前，北京传言中的领头羊可能不是他，”一位与中国央行行长合作过，在上市活动中工作过的中国投资公司Primavera Capital的创始人说。“但最终，高层领导做出了正确的决定，选择了一位在这个国家处于关键时刻具有所有资格的人。”
他又补充道：“潘功胜拥有知识、专业技能、经验和证明的记录来完成这项工作。”
（更多关于潘功胜与中国人民银行的信息：）
潘功胜出生在安徽省的一个偏远小村庄，在中国东部。根据胡的说法，他在邻省浙江一所初级学院学习和教经济学后，于1987年进入中国人民大学就读，该校校友包括中国的前经济大师——曾担任中国经济发展顾问的人大校友以及目前驻美大使。
1993年以经济学博士学位毕业后的他，获得了一份在人民银行房地产信贷部门的工作。潘功胜还在同一年加入了另一个组织：中国民主联盟，这是八个与中国共产党并肩工作的非共党派政团之一，吸引的是知识分子，主要来自教育、文化和科学领域的人士。他的会员身份表明了他倾向于与志趣相投的学术界建立联系而不是在执政党中进行关系网络建设。
到1999年，这种情况似乎发生了转变。潘功胜加入了中国共产党，这是进入国家机构大事业的必要先决条件，并开始攀登职业生涯的阶梯。2006年，他扮演了重组大型国有银行、将其在香港和上海上市的重要角色，以近220亿美元的资金创下了世界纪录。根据胡的说法，前工商银行大中华区总裁在与潘合作时认为，“作为一个训练有素的经济学家，他每天记录投资银行家的工作时间，并对工商银行交易备忘录上的拼写错误深究不放。”
他的执着获得了回报：四年后，在帮助中国农业银行超过工商银行的上市，又创下了世界纪录。这些成功的IPO以及它们要求确保全球投资者信心的结构改革展示了潘在国际市场的斡旋能力。更重要的是，这些交易提升了全球对中国银行业的信心，协助其在全球竞争激烈的考验中站稳脚跟——尤其是中国2001年加入世贸组织之后。
随着中国的经济自由化和全球联系加深，潘扩阔了自己的视野。2011年，他到哈佛肯尼迪学院度过了一个学期，作为新世界学者项目的一部分，该项目旨在鼓励美中领导者之间的合作。“我担心的是，在潘功胜卸任后，PBOC将缺乏全球专业知识和对金融世界的了解，”哈佛大学国际事务教授斯齐安（Saich）说，“他的任命应该能够解决这一担忧。”
从美国归来之后带来了更多的成功。2012年，他加入了中国人民银行担任副行长，然后在2016年成为国家外汇管理局局长——这是管理中国外汇的监管机构。
但在这些角色中也伴随着一些中国最棘手的经济问题。他首次任内就遭遇了重大危机。中央银行2015年对人民币的意外贬值（由于汇率定价改革）引发了市场恐慌和大量资金外流，潘功胜采取资本管制措施回应，这一举动在过去的金融开放中造成了风险，并可能使国内经济孤立，但此后已被认为有助于稳定关键储备。
他的下一个重大挑战让人想起了他在工商银行早期的工作经历——他成为主导抑制负债累累的房地产开发商活动的关键人物。几十年来，中国开发商借债过度，在住房需求激增的情况下发展成为一个重要的支柱产业，导致投机和房价飙升至不可负担水平。潘再次推动了由高级官员设定的强硬立场，并于2020年根据知情人士的说法设计了所谓的“三条红线”政策。这些严格的开发商融资限制为包括中国恒大集团在内的企业违约以及房地产行业的持续低迷打下了基础——后者一直拖累着经济。
在情况愈发严重时，2022年潘功胜推广了一系列金融支持措施，显示出他能够灵活地执行由高层官员不断调整的政策方向。这些政策至今尚未扭转萎靡不振的市场局面。本月中国共产党政治局召开的经济政策会议暗示了更多果断的放宽措施即将来临，包括从中国人民银行发出。
在全球等待着看到如何重燃支撑全球市场的经济增长时，潘功胜现在将肩负起实施高级官员识别以解决关键问题的战略的任务。“选择潘功胜领导央行反映出他对最高领导人认可的问题的能力，同时不越权政治界限”，亚洲学会政策研究所中心对中国的分析副研究员李浩（音）说，“潘功胜是一个证明的解决问题专家，而习总书记越来越多地面临金融问题需要解决。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Central Bank Chief Is Task Master Xi Couldn’t Let Retire
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
(This story was originally published on July 29, 2023. In September 2024, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced an unprecedented stimulus blitz to support the economy.)By his early twenties, ambition had already propelled him from a farming village in eastern China to a prestigious Beijing graduate school, where he translated books from English — despite never having been abroad. “Among our classmates, we all thought Pan was impressive because he didn’t have a great college degree,” remembers Liu Xin, a Renmin University professor who studied with China’s new central banker in the 1980s. “But he had English skills outstanding enough to translate a book. We all thought it wasn’t an easy feat.” Pan has since made a career out of exceeding expectations. In the 21st century’s first decade, as a state bank executive he twice captained initial public offerings that set a world record, boosting global investor confidence in China and earning himself a reputation as a “.”He later managed the nation’s $3 trillion pile of foreign reserves and helped oversee efforts to rein in debt-laden property firms — designing the “three red lines” policy that fueled a wave of financial distress at developers including China Evergrande Group.Then his career seemed to near an end. At a major leadership congress last year the technocrat was removed from the Communist Party’s elite Central Committee, an inner web that’s included every central bank governor since at least the 1990s. Analysts took that as a sign the bookish Pan, who has few known political connections, had been sidelined during President ’s reshuffle. This month, he proved them wrong. Pan, now 60, was appointed governor of the People’s Bank of China, uniting that role with the party chief title for the first time since held both in 2018. He’s now firmly in charge of the institution tasked with steering the world’s second-largest economy through a growth slowdown and safeguarding the $60 trillion domestic financial system — although his lack of Central Committee membership could diminish his political sway. Pan’s mission comes as China confronts fears its growth miracle is ending. The nation is teetering on the brink of deflation, its vast property market is shrinking and business confidence is waning. All that’s happening as the population shrinks and geopolitical tensions with top trade partners sizzle. “Three or six months ago Beijing’s rumor mill would tell you maybe he was not the frontrunner,” said , founder of Chinese investment firm Primavera Capital, who worked with Pan during the IPOs. “But in the end, the top leadership made the right decision to pick a guy who clearly has all the qualifications at a critical juncture for our country.”He added: “Pan has the knowledge, expertise, skillset, experience, and proven track record to do that job.” Read more on Pan Gongsheng and the PBOC:Pan was born to farmers in a remote nook of Anhui province, in eastern China, according to Hu. After studying and teaching economics at a junior college in neighboring Zhejiang, in 1987 he enrolled at Renmin University, whose alumni include China’s former economic czar, , and current ambassador to the US, .After graduating in 1993 with a PhD in economics, he landed a job in the ’s real estate credit department. Pan also another organization that year: the China Democratic League, one of eight non-Communist political groups that work alongside the ruling party. Known for attracting intellectuals, mostly from the education, cultural and science sectors, Pan’s memberships suggests a desire to connect with like-minded academics over networking in the ruling party.By 1999, that had seemingly shifted. Pan signed up to the Communist Party, considered a prerequisite for any big career in the state sector, and began to climb the ladder. By 2006, he was playing a leading role in restructuring the state lender and taking it public in Hong Kong and Shanghai for nearly $22 billion — then a world record. During that period, Pan was a “task master,” says Hu, a former Greater China head of , who worked with him at ICBC. The trained economist took daily logs of investment bankers’ office hours and pored over the ICBC deal prospectus picking out spelling errors, according to media .His dedication paid off: Four years later, he helped the Agricultural Bank of China top ICBC’s offering, nudging it over the mark — another world record for a public offering. The successful IPOs, and the structural reforms they required to reassure global investors, showcased Pan’s flair for navigating international markets. More than that, the deals boosted global confidence in China’s banking sector, helping it stand up to global competition in the critical test years after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. As China’s economy liberalized and global connections deepened, Pan broadened his own horizons. In 2011, he spent a semester at the Harvard Kennedy School as a New World Fellow, a program designed to encourage collaboration between the US and Chinese leaders. , an international affairs professor at Harvard University who oversaw the fellowship during Pan’s time, said he was smart, engaged and “very interested in questions related to global affairs and finance.” “One thing I was concerned about with stepping down was there would be limited global expertise and knowledge of the financial world outside of China” in the PBOC, Saich said. “Pan’s appointment should address that concern.” Pan’s return from America brought more success. In 2012, he joined the PBOC as a deputy governor, and then in 2016 became head of the , the nation’s foreign exchange regulator. But those roles came with some of China’s thorniest economic issues.His first year at SAFE brought a major crisis. The central bank’s shock of the yuan in 2015, as a result of exchange rate fixing reform, had caused panic in the markets and heavy outflows. Pan responded by imposing capital controls, a move that China’s previous years of financial opening and risked isolating the domestic economy, but has since been credited with stabilizing crucial reserves. Pan’s next big challenge recalled his early years at ICBC, as he became a dominant player in the campaign to rein in highly indebted property developers. For decades, Chinese developers had borrowed aggressively as housing demand boomed, turning the sector into a major pillar of the economy, even though speculation surged and prices soared to unfordable levels. Once again, Pan pushed a tough stance set by senior officials, in 2020 designing the so-called “three red lines” policy, according to people familiar with the matter. Those stringent curbs on developers’ financing contributed to the default of firms including , and a persistent slump of the property industry that’s still weighing on the economy.During that period, Pan met Evergrande’s chairman at least twice, according to people familiar with the matter, as he tried to prevent the developer’s woes from bleeding across the financial system. As things became more critical in 2022, Pan promoted a of financial support measures, showing he’s flexible at executing a constantly shifting policy stance set by senior officials. Those policies have yet to turn around the weakening market. An economic policy meeting of Xi’s top decision-making Politburo this month suggests that more decisive easing measures are coming, including from the PBOC.With experiences contending with some of the toughest challenges in the economy under his belt, Pan will now be relied on to implement strategies identified by senior officials to address critical issues, as the world looks to China to reinvigorate the economic growth that powers global markets. “The choice of Pan to lead the PBOC reflects his ability to address problems identified by top leaders without overstepping political boundaries,” said , a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “Pan is a proven problem-solver and Xi has more and more financial problems that he needs to solve.”
