首先是茶，他用来平复心情。紧接着，中国的中央银行行长，一个大胆政策行动发起人，为正处于通缩螺旋边缘的经济注入了数十年来最激进的一系列政策措施。在本周二于北京召开的一个罕见高调新闻发布会上，多位高级金融官员公开宣布了一系列市场参与者渴望已久的措施。
这包括利率下调、增加银行资金支持以及更大力度的住房购买激励等举措。中国股市大盘和香港股市都出现了显著上涨，以300指数为代表的内地股市录得了自2020年7月以来的最大涨幅。美国股市期货亦获得提振，欧洲主要行业如汽车制造商与高端消费品公司股价上扬。
市场的反应表明，这位曾在美国哈佛和剑桥学院学习过、行事风格稳健的技术官僚为中国争取到了宝贵的时间。但经济学家认为这只是暂时的缓解，并担心如果要将接近18万亿美元（即大约$18万亿）的中国经济从深度衰退中拉出，仅靠此举还远远不够。
“我认为这不足以解决推动中国进入通缩螺旋的根本问题。”麦基尔（Michael McCarthy），一家宏观经济学研究机构Pantheon Macroeconomics的中国首席经济学家说。“现在真正需要的是对经济的根本性改革、一套能激发消费增长的全面政策组合。”
据悉，这次紧急召开的新闻发布会是在上周决策层在极度焦虑中作出的决定。习近平政府中的高级官员们已举行多次非正式会议来讨论经济状况，而今年的增长目标看起来愈发难以达成。
特别令人担忧的是来自一个对经济增长贡献显著的沿海大省的部分警告。有消息人士透露，这个省份的领导认为，它们可能无法实现规定的国内生产总值（GDP）增长目标。
决策层迅速作出了回应，令许多人感到意外，因为他们之前一直在等待数月之久来获得对恢复经济活动政策提案的反馈。上周，他们突然收到了需要提供更多细节的要求，在周二的新闻发布会上前不得不加班准备。
最终，他们的努力似乎得到了回报。在这场新闻会上，潘和其他官员扭转了外界对中国经济的看法。这是个重大转变：过去几周中，从高盛到瑞银等华尔街大行曾下调了对中国经济增长的预期，因为大量负面数据暗示价格下跌趋势。
许多经济学家现在估计政府今年GDP增速目标约为“大约5%”，并认为这还不够。避免落入像日本那样的长期通缩状态是中国面临的紧迫问题。但关键是能否有效刺激中国14亿人口消费的增长，“许多中国的经济挑战都是需求或信心驱动的。”一位Timefolio资产管理公司的投资组合经理这样说道。
他继续表示，尽管此次推出的措施可能有助于短期内提振市场情绪，但考虑到中国经济问题的复杂性，并不存在一蹴而就的解决办法。市场的焦点现在转向了财政部，未来几天内可能会有更多的财政刺激政策出台，作为中共将在周二开始为期一周全国休假之前召开的政治局会议的一部分内容。
同时，中国内部正兴起一种争论，讨论是否应当突破多年来维持财政赤字占GDP比重不超过3%以及主权债务与GDP比率低于60%的不成文规定。社科院世界经济与政治研究所的副所长建议政府加大教育、医疗和社会保障领域的财政支出，并认为“在刺激政策可能会带来副作用的情况下，中国不应受制于美国和欧洲过时的财政准则。” 他的这一想法得到了中国政府内部智库的支持。
中央政府希望采取的财政措施能够提振私营部门的信心。但近来几年中，习近平政府采取的一系列举措恰恰相反——对科技巨头如阿里巴巴进行了严厉监管，并批判金融行业从业者享乐主义的生活方式。一些顶级投资银行家、证券公司员工及阿斯利康公司的前高管近期被捕或调查。
对外投资者正因高管安全问题、中美关系紧张以及房地产行业面临困难导致的经济形势而犹豫不决。“我们感觉距离真正在中国房地产市场进行投资还有一段距离，”美国黑石集团亚太地区房地产部门主管在接受采访时说，“我希望看到国际资本和国内资本都投入其中。”
新闻发布会中，潘和其他官员强调了货币政策的作用。他们并未提及“通缩”，一个中国政府试图封锁的术语。
然而值得注意的是，这场由央行行长亲自举办的电视直播会议旨在宣布重大政策调整、提供前瞻指引并接受媒体提问，标志着中国运作方式的巨大变化。过去在行长的领导下，通常在网站上发布声明公布重大货币政策决策时，有时会附带背景信息，来自匿名“相关官员”。
一些投资者认为周二的透明度表明了北京急于遏制股市下跌的局面，自2021年的峰值以来，这一态势导致超过6万亿美元的中国和香港股票市值蒸发。市场意外的是从央行获得明确支持，确保市场流动性充裕以支撑股市。
一位在香港投资公司Un Union Bancaire Privee负责北亚股权咨询业务的高管表示：“市场的惊喜在于央行清晰的市场定位与资金注入承诺。”“可以预见，在此政策影响下，中国资本市场将享受一段充满流动性的蜜月期。”她补充道，“中国现在正争取时间以解决更深层次的增长问题。”
这些举措能否真正扭转局面、推动中国经济增长并提振投资者信心还有待观察。在经历了数年的严厉监管措施后，包括对互联网巨头的打压和对金融业人员奢华生活方式的批判——市场仍在评估它们的影响。
然而，这场突如其来的政策转变确实为中国经济提供了一个暂时的缓冲，让外界重新审视中国的经济增长前景。中国正在通过货币政策的调整为其经济争取宝贵的时间来解决结构性问题，并希望未来出台更多财政刺激措施能够进一步提振信心与需求。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Sweeping Stimulus Package Buys Economy Time, But Won’t End Slump
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
First he took a sip of tea to gather his composure. Then Chinese central banker unleashed one of the country’s most daring policy campaigns in decades.In what amounts to a massive adrenaline shot for an economy on the cusp of a deflationary spiral, the governor of the People’s Bank of China and other top financial officials unveiled a series of that market watchers had wanted for weeks at a rare, high-level press conference on Tuesday in Beijing. They include interest rate cuts, more cash for banks, bigger incentives to buy homes and plans to consider a stock stabilization fund.Markets on the mainland and in Hong Kong soared, with the CSI 300 Index — a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks — posting its biggest gain since July 2020. US equity futures advanced and European stocks climbed on the back of sectors with heavy exposure to China, including manufacturers of automobiles and luxury goods.The market reaction to the policy blitz suggests that Pan, a technocrat who spent time at Harvard and Cambridge, has bought the Chinese economy some precious time. Yet economists believe this is just a down payment if President is going to pull the roughly $18 trillion economy out of a protracted slump marked by a blowout, consumer price weakness and rising global trade tensions.“I don’t think it’s enough to address the underlying issues behind China’s movement towards the deflationary spiral,” said , chief China economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics. What China needs, he added, is “a package of reforms to fundamentally reconfigure the economy and unleash consumption growth.”Tuesday’s briefing, hastily arranged only 48 hours earlier, came after weeks of growing anxiety among top leaders in Xi’s government, according to people familiar with the situation. Senior policy makers held several unscheduled closed-door meetings to discuss the economy, as it became increasingly clear that this year’s growth target was slipping out of reach, the people added.Of particular concern were warnings from officials in at least one major coastal province, an important contributor to growth, that it would struggle to hit the gross domestic product target, one of the people said.The swift turnaround from top Communist Party leaders came as a surprise to many officials, who had waited for months to hear any feedback on policy proposals they had drawn up to revive the economy. Last week they suddenly received requests for more information, forcing some to pull all-nighters ahead of Tuesday’s briefing, according to regulatory officials who asked not to be identified discussing private matters.The work appeared to pay off. Pan and other officials have changed the narrative around China’s economy for the moment. That’s a big shift: In recent weeks, banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Group AG for China’s economic growth following a slew of bad data that about falling prices.Bloomberg Economics and others the government to hit Xi’s goal of expanding GDP by “around 5%” this year. But most economists also agree that more is needed to avoid entrenched Japan-style . The big missing piece remains a coherent strategy to get China’s 1.4 billion people to ramp up spending. “A lot of China’s issues are demand- or confidence-driven,” said , a portfolio manager at Timefolio Asset Management Co. “Overall, I don’t think the measures can move the needle as China’s problems are complex. And there’s no silver bullet.”With the central bank surprising the market by doing more than expected, the spotlight now is on the Ministry of Finance. More fiscal measures could come in the next few days as Xi’s 24-member Politburo is set to meet ahead of a weeklong annual holiday starting Tuesday. The event will mark the 75th anniversary since the Communist Party founded the People’s Republic of China.Despite facing pressure from the US and elsewhere to stimulate consumption and rebalance the economy away from manufacturing, leaders in Beijing would prefer to avoid giving cash payments to people. Handouts are a common policy prescription to boost demand in various countries, but China worries about creating a welfare state it can’t afford — and in a nation with one of the world’s highest savings rates, officials doubt that most people would spend the money in any case.That has the market pinning hopes on more funding to buy up unsold homes, greater spending on social welfare and further moves to help consumers trade in old appliances. The Finance Ministry can also push local governments to sell more bonds to ramp up spending on infrastructure.A is also emerging within China about whether to break away from unwritten rules to keep its fiscal deficit at about or less than 3% of GDP and maintain its sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%. The government should “significantly boost” fiscal spending to pay for education, medical care and social security, according to , deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The think tank is affiliated with the State Council, China’s equivalent of the US cabinet.“While expansionary policies come with side effects, a lesson we should learn from Japan is the side effects would be even worse if expansionary policies are not taken or delayed,” Xu said. “China should not be bound by outdated fiscal doctrines in the US and Europe.”Officials in Beijing want any fiscal measures to spur more confidence in the private sector. But Xi’s government has taken a host of steps over the past several years that have done exactly the opposite, including on tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and denouncing the “hedonistic” lifestyles of finance workers.Read more: At least three top investment bankers from different securities firms have been in recent months, along with five current and former employees of AstraZeneca Plc. Concerns over the safety of executives, increased US-China tensions and an economy hampered by its troubled property sector are keeping foreign investors away.“It feels like we are a long way away from actually investing” in China’s property market, said , head and chief investment officer of Asia-Pacific real estate at BlackRock Inc., when asked about the impact of the stimulus. “I want to see offshore capital focusing on it, and I want to see domestic capital also buying,” he said. “At the moment there’s not a lot of buyers in either of those two categories.”At Tuesday’s briefing, Pan and other officials stuck firmly to monetary policy. And there was no mention of “deflation,” a term that Chinese authorities have sought to censor. Still, the fact that the PBOC governor held a live televised briefing to announce big monetary policy moves, provide some forward guidance and take questions from reporters represents a sea change in how China operates.Under past governors, the PBOC typically announced major monetary policy decisions in statements published on its website. Sometimes an accompanying release would give some background information, attributed to an unnamed “relevant official.”To some investors, the transparency shown on Tuesday indicated Beijing’s urgency to stem a rout that has more than $6 trillion from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since their 2021 peak.“What surprised the market is the clear direction and funding from the PBOC in being a firm liquidity resort to prop up the stock market,” said , head of equity advisory for North Asia at Union Bancaire Privee in Hong Kong. “Chinese capital markets should enjoy a sweet liquidity honeymoon period,” she added. “China is buying time to fix more deep-seated growth problems.”
