深圳上周末发生的一起致命刺杀事件令人震惊且非同寻常，但这并非出乎意料，而是近期一系列中国行动累积的结果，使得双边关系降至新低点。在这一背景下，中国政府领导人应为损害与中国这个最重要外交关系之一的重大影响而负有主要责任，并有责任减轻紧张局势，同时还有动机。
自现代以来两国复杂的历史关系一直构成了维持友好的合作关系的挑战。20世纪80年代的黄金时期曾见证了改革派中国的领袖们寻求日本投资和促进中日关系改善。邓小平明智地选择了搁置对Senkaku（在日称冲绳岛）群岛和Diaoyu（中国称呼）争议，同时胡耀邦作为开明的共产党总书记，不遗余力地与日本领导人建立友好关系并推动了民间交流。
这段亲密时期在1989年6月天安门事件后终结。1990年代初期，中国政府开始推广一种激进的民族主义运动以巩固政权合法性，并将其核心部分之一是针对性的对日宣传行动。同一时期，中国军事现代化进程全面加速，加剧了东京的安全忧虑。
关系在2012年后彻底破裂始于中国的过度反应——即对日本计划国有化Senkaku/Diaoyu群岛的响应（而不是让一名右翼政治家购得）。中国政府纵容暴力事件的发生，在这些事件中，日本企业及财产遭受攻击。反而加剧了矛盾而非缓和了关系。
自那之后，中国军队频繁派遣舰船进入争议海域以宣示主权，从而创建了一种危险的新常态。自那时以来，两国关系便持续下行。2023年初，中国政府更进一步派出大量海警船在该区域巡逻。同年6月，一名持刀男子在中国苏州袭击了一名日本家庭成员。
8月底时，一艘中国军舰侵犯了日本领空，导致东京强烈抗议。上周，一艘中国的航空母舰首次通过了日本的连续区（可延伸至离岸24英里的水域）。造成如此紧张局势的两大因素影响了北京的外交策略：
首先，日本经济影响力持续减弱。在2010年超过中国后，日本已不再是世界第二大经济体，而中国GDP却是其数倍之多。经济优势使中国政府变得傲慢和冷漠，更甚的是，开始采取措施迫使日本屈服。
其次，是中日与美国的加深安全合作。拜登总统上台后，强化美日同盟作为印太战略的一部分成为首要任务。两国已宣布在日本设立一个新基地，并批准了大幅增加军事支出计划及加速研发远程巡航导弹以能攻击中国境内目标。
错误地将日本的重要性仅仅视作与中国对抗美国的一部分考量。习近平采取的策略是惩罚美在地区的盟友，如日本和菲律宾，因为中国无法对美国施加成本。因此，两国间存在与俄罗斯在宗谷海峡联合军演的情况。2021年至2023年期间，中国官方船只平均每年进入争议岛屿的连续区达多次。
结果就是，日本与美及其他亚洲盟友的关系升级至前所未有的水平。甚至考虑在日本部队与中国美军并肩作战以保卫台湾都变得不再不可能。
中国改变策略是符合自身利益的。解决日方的忧虑和恐惧来源的策略应有助于恢复双方关系的正常化。最容易也是最快的一步举措就是减少反日宣传，并对凶杀案嫌疑人进行公开、透明的司法程序，让日本外交官能够参与其中。在象征意义上，在此之外，北京明智地暂停争议岛屿周边的入侵活动。
只要日本仍觉直接且持续来自中国的大国安全威胁，它将寻求与美国及地区其他盟友的安全合作加深。上周无辜日本少年丧命的悲剧令人悲痛。唯有终止无谓且反生产的挑衅行为，才是中国防止未来更严重危机发生的唯一途径。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Bears the Blame for Breakup With Japan
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
The stabbing death of a in Shenzhen last week was shocking but also, sadly, not surprising. It is the culmination of a series of recent Chinese actions that have brought bilateral ties to a new low.As China’s leaders bear most of the blame for damaging one of the country’s most important diplomatic relationships, they have a responsibility to reduce tensions. They also have an incentive.Maintaining a friendly and cooperative relationship has always been challenging given the two nations’ complicated modern history. Yet ties enjoyed a golden era in the 1980s when reformist Chinese leaders sought Japanese investment.Former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping wisely decided to a territorial dispute over a set of islands known as the Senkakus in Japan, which administers them, and the Diaoyu in China. Hu Yaobang, China’s liberal party chief, worked tirelessly to cultivate with Japanese leaders and to bolster people-to-people exchanges.This rapprochement ended after the Tiananmen crackdown in June 1989. In the 1990s, Chinese leaders began to promote an aggressive program of nationalism to bolster regime legitimacy. One of its core components was a concerted anti-Japanese propaganda campaign. The decade also saw the beginning of China’s full-scale military modernization, which fueled deepening insecurity in Tokyo.The bottom really fell out in 2012 after China overreacted to Tokyo’s well-intentioned move to nationalize the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands rather than letting a far-right politician purchase them. The Chinese government condoned violent , during which mobs attacked Japanese-owned businesses and property.Instead of repairing the damage, China has since regularly into the waters near the disputed islands to assert sovereignty, creating a dangerous new status quo.Relations have been on a downward spiral ever since. In early June, China crossed another line by dispatching Chinese coast guard vessels to patrol the area. That same month, a Japanese mother and child were attacked in Suzhou by a knife-wielding assailant.At the end of August, a Chinese intruded into Japanese airspace, provoking strong protests from Tokyo. Last week, a Chinese aircraft carrier through Japan’s contiguous zone, which reaches up to 24 miles offshore, for the first time.Two factors have influenced Beijing’s more aggressive posture since the rise of President Xi Jinping in late 2012.The first is Japan’s declining economic clout. In 2010 China its neighbor as the world’s second-largest economy in dollar terms. Today, Chinese GDP is more than .A sense of economic superiority has made China arrogant and insensitive. Even worse, it has begun to resort to to put Japan in its place.The second factor is Japan’s deepening security cooperation with the US. After coming to office in January 2021, US President Joseph Biden prioritized strengthening the US-Japan alliance as part of his Indo-Pacific strategy.The two countries have announced the establishment of a in Japan. Tokyo has approved a dramatic increase in military spending and accelerated the of long-range cruise missiles capable of striking targets inside China.Foolishly, instead of setting a policy based solely on Japan’s importance to China, Beijing views the Sino-Japanese relationship almost exclusively through the lens of its rivalry with Washington. Xi has adopted a strategy of punishing America’s regional allies, such as Japan and the Philippines, mostly because China has no means of imposing costs on the US.Thus China has conducted with Russia over the Sea of Japan. Between 2021 and 2023, Chinese official vessels carried out an average of each year into the contiguous zone of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.The result? Japan has upgraded its security ties with the US to previously unimaginable levels. Even the idea of Japanese forces fighting alongside the American military to defend Taiwan is no longer unthinkable.It would clearly be in China’s self-interest to change course. A more promising strategy must address the sources of Japanese frustrations and fears.The easiest and quickest step would be to tone down anti-Japanese propaganda, which is widely blamed for last week’s despicable attack. To underscore its good faith, China should make the criminal proceedings against the murder suspect transparent and accessible to Japanese diplomats.Beyond symbolism, China would be wise to suspend its incursions around the disputed islands. As long as Japan feels a direct and constant security threat from its bigger neighbor, it will continue to seek closer military ties with the US and Washington’s other allies in the region.The death of an innocent Japanese boy is a heartbreaking tragedy. The only way for China to prevent a worse catastrophe in the future is to reverse its pointless and counterproductive provocations. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
