联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)已成为广为人知的名字。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)也因其非凡的影响力而闻名。然而，在中国这个重要国家中央银行负责人，即使面临众多挑战，也很少能获得哪怕较小程度的认可和知名度。
事情正在发生变化。中国人民银行宣布了一系列政策措施，其中包括下调关键利率和降低储备金要求比例的决策，这种增长刺激行动在过去几年一直相对温和。这些缓解措施早已过时，并且经济学家之前就预计在未来几个月会有进展。然而，在国务院副行长潘功胜举行的罕见新闻发布会上，这次举措的呈现方式增加了其活力与吸引力。紧接着中国在一次更低调的会议上所宣布的有限步骤。
是否中国人民银行的活动将从过去被人们认为是沉闷而充满官僚术语的事情转化为像鲍威尔、拉加德以及其他货币领袖主持的重要事件？现在下结论还为时过早，但情况正在朝着积极的方向发展。通过组合措施并有力地展示出来确实具有吸引力。例如前美联储主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）就意识到了决策本身并不是唯一关键因素，公众如何看待这些决定同样至关重要。在任期内他设定了美联储透明度的路径，并从记者处定期举行会议约每季度一次。离任后，Bernanke认为成功政策是2%的实际行动与98%的言辞相辅相成。
当然，行动本身仍然是基础。潘功胜在周一公布了措施之后必须确保它们得到实施。如果只是一味讨论而没有实质内容，那意义就大打折扣了。他并没有让人失望，除了降低关键利率和减少储备金要求之外，还向市场释放了一些前瞻性指导，表示今年可能还会再次调整准备金要求比例，并允许基金和经纪人从中央银行借款购买股票等措施。
此举被视为“重炮”（bazooka），表明中国人民银行正在采取重要的举措。然而，是否这些政策足以改变经济长期放缓的基础状态仍需观察。在新冠疫情期间之前中国经济就已经陷入长期疲软的状态，这种变化能否开启新的增长动力阶段还有待验证。
值得一提的是，潘功胜与前任的差异。在他上任时中国正处于严重的通缩期，在全球主要经济体中通胀因疫情缓解而大幅上升之时，中国的消费者价格却下降了几个月，并在之后的几个月内保持低位。他在任命时面临很大的期望，但他采取行动以证明自己无愧于这一期待。
央行行长往往有自己的理念和偏好，但环境同样至关重要。令人惊讶的是，在2006年鲍威尔被任命为主席时也被视为鹰派，但在离开办公室时他主导了被认为是只有日本能做到的宽松政策时期。对于中国应如何进一步行动的意见不一，而潘功胜为改变现状的努力确实正在正确的方向上推进。
中国政府和中国人民银行与独立决策的情况不同。在中国系统中并不具备这种情况。虽然外界可能希望看到更多力度或更勇敢的步伐，但可以理解的是政策已经在积极变化的路径上。
目前关注点放在了是否能最终带来新阶段的增长动力，以及是否存在后续跟进措施以进一步推动经济增长。在过去的几年里，对中国经济讨论中的悲观情绪持续存在，这需要进一步观察此次举措的实际效果来判断。总体而言，中国人民银行或许正朝着更和谐的政策决策体系迈进。
中国央行行长潘功胜是否希望成为如同《The Maestro》一书中描绘的传奇美联储主席Alan Greenspan那样充满影响力的角色还有待时间验证。重要的是，北京的“乐团”似乎开始找到了调音的方式，并在正确的方向上前进着。
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新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Adds a Touch of Showbiz to Its Stimulus
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is almost a household name. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, possesses an undeniable star power. The man who runs China’s central bank struggles to achieve even a small measure of that fame, despite the heft of the country — and the extent of the challenges confronting him. That’s changing.The People’s Bank of China unveiled a on Tuesday, including cuts in a key interest rate and the amount of money banks must set aside for reserves. Efforts to juice growth have, until now, been incremental. Further easing was overdue and economists had been anticipating progress in the coming months. But the manner of delivery, during a rare press conference by Governor Pan Gongsheng, added a dynamic flavor and . It followed a more modest step by Beijing announced during a briefing in .Could PBOC events, which have long endured a reputation for being staid affairs draped in technocratic language, become must-watch events like those presided over by Powell, Lagarde, and scores of other monetary chiefs? That’s a bit premature, but developments are very encouraging.There’s a lot to be said for packaging steps together and presenting them forcefully. One of Powell’s predecessors, Ben Bernanke, recognized that what you do is only part of the game. How decisions are perceived, which is almost always about language, is critical. He set the Fed on a path to greater transparency and, in 2011, began from journalists every few months. After leaving office, Bernanke that successful policy is 2% action, 98% talk. Powell agreed: He now holds forth after every Federal Open Market Committee meeting. His spin on the statement is at least as significant as whether rates are raised, trimmed or kept unchanged.Of course, substance still matters. Having on Monday, Pan had to deliver on substance. No point in talking if you don’t have anything to say. He didn’t disappoint. In addition to the reductions, Pan dabbled in forward guidance, saying that reserve requirements may be pared again this year. Funds and brokers will be allowed to borrow from the monetary authority to buy stocks, while China is also studying a market stabilization . The word “bazooka” has been bandied around to describe the initiatives. While they are certainly noteworthy, it remains seen whether they alter the underlying course of the economy, which was in a long-term slowdown well before the Covid-19 pandemic. Shifts in policy, especially if unveiled with bells and whistles, tend to be greeted as breakthroughs. If what transpired on Tuesday kicks off a new phase in efforts to boost growth, well and good. Should there be little follow through, then the pessimism that has characterized discussions of China’s economy in recent years will persist.It’s worth considering how Pan’s performance compares with the reputation that preceded him. When he arrived in the governor’s office in July last year, China was on the cusp of a nasty run of very . Unlike the other major economies, where inflation rose sharply as the pandemic abated, China experienced the opposite: Consumer prices declined for several months and the pace of increases seven months later now hovers worryingly close to zero. Pan was at the time of his appointment. He’s done nothing to justify that early branding.Central bankers certainly come to their gigs with philosophies and preferences, but circumstances matter greatly. It might surprise many to know that when Bernanke was installed as chair in 2006, he, too, was considered a hawk. By the time he left in 2014, he had presided over a period of easing once thought to be only possible in Japan. It’s fine to argue that China should have done much more before this week — and should be still bolder going forward. In Pan’s defense, policy is evolving in the right direction. And unlike many of his counterparts, the PBOC doesn’t make decisions independently; China’s system isn’t set up that way.Pan can’t aspire to be Maestro, the title of a on Alan Greenspan by Bob Woodward that was published 2000 when the legendary Fed boss was at the zenith of his power. The good news is that the orchestra in Beijing may finally be getting in tune. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
