欢迎收看本刊关于驱动全球经济运行的能源与商品市场的指南。今日，资深记者阿尔弗雷德·坎格（Alfred Cang）聚焦了中国对蒙古煤炭的强劲采购动向，尤其是这些煤炭供应给全球最大的钢铁行业。
近年来，随着中国钢铁厂大量购买来自蒙古的煤炭，澳大利亚在中国的煤炭进口国排名中失去了榜首地位，这是由更便宜的价格以及地理便利性带来的结果，这在某种程度上为乌兰巴托带来了经济增长。同时，这也再次凸显了北京工业面临的一系列挑战。
始于2020年中澳外交冲突期间，出口蒙古煤的数量开始激增。在全球第二经济体试图从疫情中复苏之际，这一趋势进一步上升，以至于在去年，蒙古国煤炭占到了中国邻国钢铁生产用煤进口的50%以上。尽管与堪培拉的关系有所回暖，但印度等市场的需求使得澳大利亚的价格保持高位，从而减少了对中国的出口量。
然而，今年中国经济面临的是不改的低迷前景，即使是最剧烈的刺激措施也无法彻底解决持续困扰工业领域的危机。房地产市场的状况依然萎靡不振。因此，蒙古国开放型煤矿生产的低硫、低灰分煤炭，通过卡车或公路运输至中国北部边境成为了有吸引力的选择。
这种煤不仅物美价廉，甚至在物流效率上也优于俄罗斯的煤炭，后者需走较长的运输路线。这对蒙古来说，意味着急需的增长动力。亚洲开发银行预测2024年和2025年该国经济增速分别达到5.5%和6%，部分原因受益于矿业活动。而今年蒙古国预期出口煤炭7800万吨，预计2025年这个数字将达到8300万吨。
然而，产量的提升并非唯一故事。只要煤炭继续存在于燃料组合中，碳排放就将持续增加。进入2025年，在中国及其钢铁行业前景不变的情况下，煤价肯定会出现下跌趋势。
全球可再生能源投资总额于去年达到了6230亿美元水平，为了实现到2050年前净零目标，并且在2030年前将可再生能源产能提高至三倍，BloombergNEF指出，未来十年内平均每年的投资额需要达到一个特定数字。
金融服务公司Clear Street LLC计划加入国际清算集团（ICL），此举有望提振“圆周”这一标志性金融基础设施的活力，近来它经历了交易量下降和人员离职潮的影响。
铁矿石价格正呈强劲反弹之势，连续两天上涨，这背后是对中国巨大刺激政策能提振需求的市场预期。飓风海伦（Helen）正在逼近墨西哥湾，导致佛罗里达州西部沿海地区实施疏散行动。
澳大利亚铁矿石生产商福特斯库矿业有限公司（Fortescue）计划斥资280亿美元，将西澳大利亚三分之二的采矿设备更换为电动版本，旨在追求更加雄心勃勃的减排目标。
OPEC+国家受限生产的总产出今年已经超过60万桶/天。Bloomberg Opinion作者Javier Blas指出，这是这些OPEC+国家无法推卸的责任，其不遵守协议的原因只能归咎于它们自身。
请注意：以上内容为机器翻译，旨在保持原文信息的准确传达，并力求符合中文阅读习惯，但在表述和表达上可能略有调整以求通顺。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Economy: Beijing's Cheap Coal Imports Lay Bare Steelmakers’ Pain
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Welcome to our guide to the energy and commodities markets powering the global economy. Today, senior reporter Alfred Cang looks at China’s surging purchases of Mongolian coal to feed the world’s largest steel industry. To get this newsletter in your inbox, you can sign up .Chinese steel mills are snapping up so much coal from Mongolia that the country has unseated Australia as their top supplier.That’s a result of cheaper prices and geographical convenience, and is a boon for Ulaanbaatar. It’s also yet another reminder of the depths of Beijing’s industrial woes.The export surge began during a diplomatic spat between China and Australia in 2020. And as the world’s No. 2 economy struggled to recover from the pandemic, volumes rose further, to the point where Mongolia accounted for more than half of its neighbor’s steelmaking-coal imports last year.Even as relations with Canberra , demand from markets such as India helped keep Australian prices high and Chinese steelmakers away.This year, China’s grim economic picture is showing scant sign of improvement. Even shock-and-awe — as seen this week — will struggle to resolve a lingering industrial crisis. The property market, meanwhile, remains stubbornly stuck in the doldrums.Hence the attraction of less-expensive metallurgical coal produced in Mongolia’s open-pit mines and delivered by truck or to China’s northern border.The supply is low-sulfur, low-ash. It’s even close to the delivery standard demanded by the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contracts, and so it can be used by traders to offset short positions.The fuel is logistically superior even to Russian coal, which takes a longer route.For Mongolia, this translates into much-needed growth. The Asian Development Bank the economy will grow 5.5% in 2024 and 6% next year, thanks in part to mining.The country’s coal-export forecast has increased to 78 million tons this year. For 2025, it’s estimated at 83 million.But rising volume is only part of the story. Emissions will keep climbing as long as coal remains in the mix, of course.And heading into 2025, absent a change to China’s outlook and that of its steelmakers, prices are certain to head the other way. --Alfred Cang, Bloomberg NewsGlobal investment in renewables totaled $623 billion last year. To be on track for net zero by midcentury and reach the COP28 goal of tripling renewables capacity by 2030, it needs to average from now to the end of the decade, BloombergNEF says.Financial services firm Clear Street LLC is looking to join the , a move that would bolster the prospects of the iconic “Ring” after a decline in volumes and a slew of departures in recent years.Iron ore is heading back toward , rallying strongly for a second day on speculation that China’s mammoth stimulus package can bolster demand.Tropical Storm Helene as it moved toward the Gulf of Mexico, prompting evacuations along Florida’s west coast.Iron ore miner Fortescue Ltd. will pay $2.8 billion to replace two-thirds of its fleet of in Western Australia with electric versions as it chases ambitious emission-reduction targets.OPEC+ countries subject to output caps have together pumped more than 600,000 barrels a day this year. The group can’t blame anyone but itself for noncompliance, Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas writes.
