自中国人民银行行长和其他高层官员周二宣布一系列全面刺激计划以来，中国政府已承诺投入高达约3,400亿美元来提振其萎靡不振的股市，此举引起了对国内及日本以往举措的回顾，这些举措在初见成效后大多未能有效推动经济复苏。作为这一广泛刺激措施的一部分，央行正试图逆转家庭财富流失现象，并激发饱受数年房产危机、通缩以及需求疲软之苦的经济活力。
然而，根据在日本的经验判断——其中央银行购买交易型开放式指数基金（ETFs）对于提振经济收效甚微——这次努力将面临艰巨挑战。“中国的宽松举措可能在短期内有影响，但只能延缓时间”，Oxford Economics副首席研究员、前日本银行国际部主管Nagai如此评价，“日本央行的ETF购买对应对短期市场冲击有效，但长时间追求通货膨胀并不能持续”。
根据Nagai的观点，起初8000亿元（相当于约1,140亿美元）的第一笔融资总额或许会有一定影响，但这一数额仅是今年A股日均交易量的一小部分。中国政府已着手的投入中还包括了诸如主权财富基金中央汇金投资有限责任公司等政府实体持续购买股票ETF的行动；截至当前年份，中央汇金已购入超过900亿美元的ETF，并预计将全年再购入1,100多亿美元的ETF。
HSBC Holdings Plc的分析师们将这一举措称作“游戏规则改变者”，并认为前所未有的市场流动性注入有助于市场触底，支持年末市场反弹。然而，第一轮宣布的8000亿元仅仅略高于今年A股平均每日交易量的一小部分。中央汇金的股票ETF购买额在今年已有逾900亿美元，并有望全年再购入超1,100亿美元的ETF。
不过，在中国基准指数——沪深300指数周四开盘时仅略有波动，较前一天的部分涨幅收窄后小幅稳定。“这些措施旨在提升投资者信心和市场流动性，并在短期内促使国内外市场积极响应”，摩根士丹利大中华区首席股票策略师指出，“然而，反弹的规模及其持久性取决于成功摆脱通缩以及企业盈利触底并复苏”。
最新的一轮努力继承了中国深入资本市场干预的传统。尽管中国人民银行在这类行动中的角色并不明确，在2005年的股市崩盘后尝试拯救市场主要由证券监督管理委员会主导；10年后，央行试图贬值人民币时导致货币暴跌、资本外流及股市进一步下跌，中央政府也在此前采取了行动。
在这一过程中，中国政府证券融资公司和被外界称为“国家队”的其他国有机构共同投入数万亿元资金。部分来自包括中国财政部在内的来源的资金也被用于购买股票ETF，而央行则被认为提供了支持性资金，但具体数额并未公开。
Barclays Plc的研究员Kaanhari Singh团队在报告中写到，“从信号层面看，这是重要的进展，意味着中国人民银行的资产负债表提供充足的力量。但在短期内缓解恐慌抛售的同时，确保企业盈利和家庭投资趋势对市场驱动至关重要。市场主要由零售投资者推动。”
回顾日本长达10年的央行购入股票举措同样对中国有重要启示；自2020年起，日本央行累计投入约2,580亿美元购买了大量股票基金，并在3月正式退出购买行动后，特别意识到其在市场中的过强干预。根据摩根士丹利分析师团队的报告，“短期市场的上涨未能形成持久影响”，他们强调“正如我们从日本经验中得出的结论，资产市场持续反弹以及规模恢复的关键在于成功摆脱通缩并实现企业盈利触底及复苏”。
此外，中国政府的更积极的政策可能会在短期内缓冲股市恐慌性抛售。但市场的长期趋势最终取决于企业的盈利增长与家庭投资趋势。
尽管中国过往努力未能取得显著成果，上证综指和深圳成指自2015年高峰点下跌了近30%；然而，在这之后的一系列行动可能帮助市场在短期内找到底部并提振信心。
值得注意的是，相较于日本长达十年的股市购入行为及最终导致的有限长期效果，中国需要借鉴经验。只有在成功打破通缩、实现企业盈利增长触底且持续恢复的情况下，资产市场的反弹才能获得持久性和规模上的支持。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Stocks Intervention Faces Long Odds Once Euphoria Fades
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
China’s pledge of up to $340 billion to boost its ailing equities is invoking parallels with past efforts at home and in Japan that largely faltered in lifting the economy after an initial burst of enthusiasm.The massive support is part of a broader stimulus package unveiled by People’s Bank of China Governor and other top officials Tuesday. The goal is to reverse a drain on household wealth and prime an economy suffering a years-long housing crisis and mired in deflation and weak demand.Going by the experience in Japan, where the central bank’s purchases of exchange-traded funds did little to help the reflation of the economy, that will be a tall order.“China’s easing steps may have some short-term impact, but they’ll only help buy time,” said , head of Japan research at Oxford Economics and former chief of the Bank of Japan’s international department. “The BOJ’s ETF buying was effective at addressing short-term market shocks but it’s not something to keep doing for a long time in pursuit of stirring inflation,” Nagai said.The first round of financing made available by the PBOC will be worth a total of 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) and could be doubled or even tripled depending on how much demand there is for the money, according to Pan, who said the central bank is also considering a “stabilization fund.”Investors initially cheered the rollout, sending onshore stocks up 6% since the announcement. Analysts at HSBC Holdings Plc described it as a “game changer”These “unprecedented measures to channel liquidity to the stock market” could help the market find a bottom and support a rebound towards the end of the year, said HSBC analysts led by .But the initial promised amount of 800 billion yuan is barely more than the average daily turnover of Class A shares so far this year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The new commitment would come on top of the ongoing purchases by government entities such as sovereign wealth fund Central Huijin Investment Ltd., which has has been stock ETFs since October. So far this year, Huijin has purchased more than $90 billion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, which estimates it will buy more than $110 billion worth of ETFs for the whole year. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index opened mostly flat on Thursday after paring much of its gains the previous day.“These measures should help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and push both onshore and offshore markets to react positively in the near term,” said , Morgan Stanley’s chief China equity strategist. However, “the scale of the rebound and its sustainability hinge on a successful breakout from deflation and corporate earnings growth bottoming out.”The latest push builds on a long history of China’s wading into its capital market, though the role of the PBOC in such interventions hasn’t been clear. The rescue attempt following 2005’s stock crash was largely led by China Securities Regulatory Commission. Another effort followed a decade later when the central bank tried to devalue the yuan, unleashing a currency slump, capital flight, and further declines in stocks. At that time, the central government also . China Securities Finance Corp., alongside other state-backed institutions in the so-called ‘National Team’ spent trillions of yuan, with some of that from sources including the and commercial lenders. The PBOC was said to have provided funding but the exact number was never made public.“In terms of the signal, this is a meaningful development and reminiscent of the 2015 playbook as using the PBOC’s balance sheet implies ample firepower,” Barclays Plc analysts led by Kaanhari Singh wrote in a report. “But a sustainable stock-market rebound is going to rely on households directing their deposits back towards equities.”China has little to show for its past efforts, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index down almost 30% from the mid-2015 peak. While a more activist state policy may serve to buffer panic selling in the short term, it’s corporate earnings and household investment trends that play the biggest role in a market that is still driven mostly by retail investors. More than a decade of equities purchases by Japan’s central bank also hold lessons for China. The BOJ around $258 billion of stock funds until it formally phased out its purchases in March. The central bank bank became particularly aware of its overreach in the market when it became the nation’s largest holder of equities in 2020.The effort led to “short-term market gains but had a limited long-term impact,” according to a report from Morgan Stanley analysts led by on Tuesday. “As we have seen from Japan’s experience, the key takeaway is that the sustainability and scale of the rebound in asset markets will have to hinge on a successful breakout from deflation and corporate earnings growth bottoming out and recovering,” they said.
