摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）指出，在中国人民银行释放广泛货币刺激措施后，可能有短期套利行为推高了香港股市于周二的涨幅。
据该行策略师透露，香港的短卖比率在周二下降至13.6%，相较前一周的15%到22%，表明许多空头仓位已被回补。这使得比率降至自2016年以来平均水平的一标准差以下，暗示大量空头已实现平仓。
中国内地股票在香港市场表现强劲，创下了逾一年来最大的单日涨幅。北京最新的政策举措旨在提振银行放贷、降低现有房贷利率，并允许资金管理公司和券商利用央行资金购买股份。此外，政府还在考虑设立股市稳定基金作为支持措施。
港股恒生指数及A股沪深300指数均表现出强劲增长势头。
不过，摩根大通的策略师警告称，受刺激驱动的市场反弹可能难以持续稳定。鉴于此前中国市场的涨幅最终都未能持久，他们预计大规模投资将会相对谨慎，特别是考虑到美国总统选举的因素。
据摩根大通预期，年底前MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数的目标水平分别为60和3500点，这意味着如果以周二收盘价计算，沪综指的上涨空间约为4.4%。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Hong Kong Stock Rally Likely Driven by Short Covering, JPMorgan Says
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Short covering may have driven outsized gains in Hong Kong stocks on Tuesday after China’s central bank unveiled a broad package of monetary stimulus measures, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.The city’s short sales ratio as a percentage of total market turnover dipped to 13.6% on Tuesday from 15% to 22% last week, strategists including wrote in a note. That brings the ratio to one standard deviation below the average since 2016, indicating that many shorts have already been covered.A of Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong capped its best day in over a year on Tuesday after Beijing’s latest lifted the country’s beleaguered equity market. The steps announced include moves to boost bank lending, reduce borrowing costs on existing mortgages and allow funds and brokers to tap the central bank’s funding to purchase shares. Authorities are also weighing a stock stabilization fund.The Hang Seng and the onshore also surged.But that the stimulus-driven rally may not be sustainable. Given that previous stock rallies in China had fizzled, “sizable allocations will likely be cautious, particularly ahead of the US presidential election,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote.The bank has a base-case target for the MSCI China and CSI 300 Index of 60 and 3,500, respectively, by the end of the year. This implies an upside of 4.4% for the onshore benchmark from Tuesday’s close.
