怒气轴
在第二次世界大战或冷战的时代背景中，我们看到了一种联盟模式的重现——几个力量集结起来，以强化彼此的军事实力，共同对抗美国的盟友，并间接威胁到美国自身。
这就是拜登政府对俄罗斯、中国、北朝鲜和伊朗的看法。随着这些国家的关系日益紧密，美官员通过公开演讲和全球范围内的闭门会议不断发出警报，最近期是联合国纽约总会议结束时的事情。
面对中东地区冲突的扩大，尤其是针对以色列行动的后续可能影响——如伊朗对海勒伯领导人的哈桑·纳斯拉拉夫遇袭及随后在黎巴嫩采取的攻击行动。美国官员感受到前所未有的紧迫性。
然而，在这种看似统一的联盟中，并不那么一帆风顺。美国官员坚信，仍有方法可以减缓这一趋势的发展。
国务卿安东尼·布林肯周二在一个安全理事会会议上的言论揭示了美国的目标：制止北朝鲜和伊朗向俄罗斯提供的军事援助——包括弹道导弹、无人机等装备。他同时也指出了中国向俄罗斯的国防工业输送设备的行为，并指出这是在普京总统入侵乌克兰期间，由中俄共同推动的一份五干字联合声明。
布林肯强调：“如果所有国家停止支持俄罗斯，普京的侵略行为很快就会结束。”
相反，俄罗斯正在帮助这些国家实现自己的野心，包括与伊朗分享核技术以及提供“太空信息”，而后者可能在未来允许伊朗发展具备远程打击能力的洲际弹道导弹。还有报道指出，俄罗斯考虑向由海勒伯支持的也门胡塞武装部队提供先进的反舰巡航导弹。
尽管有部分细节遭到了这些国家否认，并指称是美国正在全世界组建联盟来保持其主导地位。在上周的联合国会议上，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫提到：“美国人只是试图维持他们的霸权地位，以及统治一切。”
毫无疑问，旨在抗衡美国的这些国家军事、外交和经济合作正不断增强。
各国领导人对此表示担忧，并认为这种趋势构成全球挑战，当然包括美国在内的所有人。丹麦首相梅特·弗雷德里克斯就在与《纽约时报》的访谈中明确指出，“这是个全局性问题，因为朝鲜、伊朗和俄罗斯之间更为紧密的合作是对所有国家的考验。”
一些来自敌对国家的领导人会炫耀他们间的联盟，仿佛是在向美国人发起挑战。例如，在2022年2月俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰前两周，普京在平壤与朝鲜最高领导人金正恩重新激活了冷战时期的相互防御条约。
当前形势与过去的冷战类似，中心仍旧是针对美国的联合体。其中，俄罗斯正将自己置于欧洲盟友乌克兰的对立面，并试图将其消灭。俄方获得了来自北朝鲜、伊朗和中国的援助。
事实上，乌克兰已经成为了历史上常见的代理战场之一，在如朝鲜半岛和越南这样的地区发生过。而韩国与乌克兰之间通过美国的间接援助，似乎在模仿着“朝韩对峙”的历史。
尽管如此，联盟并非表面上看起来那么坚固，这是美国在过去世纪的大规模冲突中发现的道理——有时候需要较晚的时候才能领悟。而如今的联盟能否维持主要基于政治意识形态的一致性是一个谜团。
比如，伊朗作为神权统治者与俄国、中国以及北朝鲜（正式称为D.P.R.K.）等共产党背景国家的政治理念差异明显。
在这群对抗美国的力量中，中国是力量最强的一个，并且是对美国构成最大挑战的国家。尽管如此，它似乎并不倾向于基于宏伟的理想建立一个统一的联盟体系，就像苏联曾经所做的那样。
“中国的外交政策以美国为标准划定了界限。”史密森中心中国项目主任、柏林美国学院研究者尹松说，“这意味着在看待俄罗斯、D.P.R.K.和伊朗时，中国将其视为了反美的伙伴。”
尹松还补充道：“对于中国来说，它并不认为与这些国家形成了联盟或轴心关系，因为维系它们共同行动的关键是美国。但实际操作中，伙伴关系的动机远不如其实质重要，因此最终形成的关系可以被看作是一个轴心。当行为像鸭子，叫声也像鸭子时，那就真的是一个轴心。”
过去数月来，拜登政府一直在警告中国避免与俄罗斯之间的商业交易，这使得俄罗斯能够重建其国防工业体系，并施加制裁给超过300个中国企业实体。但美国官员还指出，中国并未直接向俄罗斯提供武器。
作为全球第二经济大国的中国拥有广泛的国际贸易往来，不仅包括与美国及其盟友，而且也涉及与其他国家的合作。美国官员认为，习近平的目标是保持中国在由美国主导几十年的全球经济和贸易网络中，而他认为美国正处于衰落阶段，其目标是在这个体系内部占据领导地位，而非建立另一个全球系统。
布林肯国务卿和国家安全顾问杰克·苏利文经常与中国的首席外交官王毅会面，并有时也见到习近平。他们的策略是通过提升高级别对话以及强化亚洲的美军力量来遏制中国可能对台湾或其他地区的侵略行为。他们于纽约会面前后，讨论了中美合作及关注领域。
布林肯强调：“我们无意将俄罗斯从中国分离出来。但当这种关系涉及到提供俄罗斯所需以持续战争的行为时，这本身就是问题，并且对美国和许多其他国家来说都是问题，特别是欧洲国家，因为目前俄罗斯是最大的威胁，不仅针对乌克兰安全，而且自冷战结束以来对欧洲安全也是一个巨大威胁。”
对于美及盟国官员而言，也正密切观察着伊朗是否有政治开放示范的可能性——可能通过未来的核谈判途径——以此尝试限制其与俄罗斯的合作。由于伊朗与美国和以色列之间有着长期的敌意历史，这种担忧不言而喻。
英国外交大臣大卫·拉姆今年在访问乌克兰时提到：“我们看到了一个新的轴心形成：俄罗斯、伊朗、北朝鲜；我们恳请中国不要加入这个由破坏者组成的团体，他们的行为最终导致了乌克兰的生命损失。”
美及盟国官员也正在小心翼翼地观察伊朗以寻找可能的政治窗口，或许是在未来的核谈判中，试图说服伊朗减少与俄罗斯的合作。他们对此持有谨慎态度，因伊朗有着长达数十年的反美历史。然而，分析人士指出，伊朗领导人正致力于获取美国及其同盟国解除对伊制裁的可能性。
在联合国的一场演讲中，伊朗新总统马苏德·佩谢希安使用了和解的语言：“我们寻求世界和平，并不希望与任何人开战。”
离开纽约后，他在社交媒体上写道，“我们的政府正在从西到东、从纽约到撒马尔罕寻求政治与经济外交。”
新闻来源：www.nytimes.com
原文地址：U.S. and Allies Sound Alarm Over Their Adversaries’ Military Ties
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
Call it the Axis of Anger. It is ripped from the pages of the World Wars or the Cold War: a coalition of powers working to strengthen one another’s militaries to defeat America’s partners and, by extension, the United States. That is how the Biden administration characterizes Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, as those nations align more closely. U.S. officials have been sounding the alarm in speeches and closed-door talks around the world, most recently at the United Nations General Assembly in New York that ended over the weekend. As the conflict in the Middle East widens — and as the world watches for whether Iran will retaliate against Israel for the killing on Friday of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and its strikes across Lebanon — U.S. officials feel an even greater sense of urgency. Yet the partnerships are not as unified as they might appear, and U.S. officials say they still see ways to slow that trend. At a Security Council meeting on Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the council’s priority should be stopping the stream of military aid — including ballistic missiles, drones and artillery shells — from North Korea and Iran to Russia. And he noted that China had sent machine tools, microelectronics and other supplies to Russia’s defense industry as President Vladimir V. Putin presses his invasion of Ukraine. “If countries stopped supporting Russia, Putin’s invasion would soon come to an end,” Mr. Blinken said. Russia, in turn, is helping those nations meet their ambitions, including by sharing nuclear technology and “space information” with Iran, Mr. Blinken said. Another senior U.S. official said that while the nuclear aid to Iran seemed to be for use in its civilian nuclear program for now, the space information was more alarming — it could eventually allow Iran to develop capable intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russia is also considering arming the Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles, U.S. officials say. Those nations have denied some of the specific American assertions. And they say it is the United States that is forming blocs around the world to maintain dominance. On Saturday at the United Nations, Sergey V. Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, said the Americans were “merely seeking to preserve their hegemony and to govern everything.” But there is no doubt those powerful countries seeking to counter the United States have grown their military, diplomatic and economic cooperation. Leaders of U.S. partner nations are quick to point out the growing threats. In an interview with The New York Times at the United Nations last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine denounced the shipments of arms to Russia from North Korea and Iran. Sitting next to him, the prime minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, said, “This is a global issue, because the closer cooperation between North Korea, Iran and Russia is a challenge for all of us, of course, including the U.S., and with China helping one way or the other.” Some of the leaders of the adversarial nations are making flashy displays of their alliances, as if throwing a gauntlet down at the Americans. In June, Mr. Putin revived a Cold War-era mutual defense pact with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, during a visit to Pyongyang, the capital. Those two nations are “all in” on anti-American cooperation, said the senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence. Two weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow and Beijing announced a “no limits” partnership in a 5,000-word joint statement when Mr. Putin visited President Xi Jinping in China. “The militarization of these relationships is very remarkable,” said Michael Kimmage, a former State Department official and a professor of Cold War history and U.S.-Russia relations who is a fellow at the American Academy in Berlin. “The overt part is the most worrying aspect for the U.S.” Mr. Kimmage cautioned that “it’s possible to over-interpret the degree of political alignment,” and that “what the U.S. got wrong during the Cold War is that they interpreted more homogeneity in this than was the actual reality.” In important ways, the current alignments are a continuation of the Cold War. Now, as then, the center of gravity of the anti-American partnerships is Russia. That nation has pitted itself against an American and European partner — Ukraine — and is trying to wipe it out that. Russia is attracting aid from North Korea, Iran and China. In fact, Ukraine has become the kind of proxy-war battlefield that was common during the Cold War, in places like the Korean Peninsula and Vietnam. The shadow of the Korean War, which never officially ended, is even at play here: While North Korea is giving weapons to Russia, South Korea has done the same with Ukraine, via the United States. But coalitions are not as hardened as they appear, which the United States discovered in the sprawling conflicts of the 20th century, sometimes belatedly. And today they are based not so much on a shared ideology — communism was a unifying factor for much of the Cold War — as on opposition to U.S. power rooted in each autocratic nation’s specific interests. Analysts say the partnerships now are marriages of convenience or pragmatism. For instance, the theocratic leaders of Iran obviously have a different ideological perspective than do the leaders of Russia, China or North Korea, known formally as the D.P.R.K., which all share a communist history. China, the most powerful of those nations and the greatest challenger to American power, does not seem intent on knitting together a cohesive coalition based on a grand ideology, the way the Soviet Union once tried to do. “China’s foreign policy is drawing the dividing line using the U.S. as the criteria,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “What it means is that when China looks at Russia, D.P.R.K. and Iran, it sees anti-U. S. partners.” “China believes it doesn’t have an alliance or axis with these countries, as the very thing that anchors their alignment is the U.S.,” she added. “But for the end result, the motivation matters much less than the substance, and the relationships come across as an axis. When it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.” For months, the Biden administration has warned China against commercial trade that allows Russia to rebuild its defense industry. The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on more than 300 Chinese entities. But U.S. officials also say China has not given direct weapons aid to Russia. China has the world’s second-largest economy and does robust trade with the United States and its allies. American officials note that Mr. Xi appears to want to keep China within the global network of institutions and commerce that the United States has dominated for decades. They say he believes that America is in terminal decline, and that his aim is to displace the United States within that network rather than build a rival global system. Mr. Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, often meet with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, and occasionally with Mr. Xi. Their idea is that keeping up high-level diplomacy, along with bolstering U.S. military power in Asia, will help deter China from invading Taiwan or making other aggressive moves. On Friday, Mr. Blinken and Mr. Wang met in New York and talked about areas of both cooperation and concern. “Our intent is not to decouple Russia from China,” Mr. Blinken told reporters afterward. “But insofar as that relationship involves providing Russia what it needs to continue this war, that’s a problem, and it’s a problem for us and it’s a problem for many other countries, notably in Europe, because right now Russia presents the greatest threat, not just to Ukrainian security, but to European security since the end of the Cold War.” U.S. and allied officials say the kind of Sino-Soviet split that began between the late 1950s and early 1960s is unlikely. But European officials are calling out China’s aid to Russia in the hopes that Chinese leaders will realize they are placing their economic ties with Europe in jeopardy. On a trip to Ukraine with Mr. Blinken this month, David Lammy, the foreign secretary of Britain, said, “We’re seeing this new axis — Russia, Iran, North Korea; we urge China not to throw their lot in with this group of renegades, renegades in the end that are costing lives here in Ukraine.” U.S. and allied officials are also carefully watching Iran to see whether there is a diplomatic opening, perhaps through future nuclear negotiations, to try to get it to limit its cooperation with Russia. They are wary, because Iran has a decades-long history of hostility with the United States and Israel. But analysts say Iranian leaders are intent on getting the United States and its allies to lift sanctions on Iran. In a speech on Tuesday at the United Nations, the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, used conciliatory language, saying, “We want peace for all and seek no war or quarrel with anyone.” After leaving New York, Mr. Pezeshkian wrote on social media that his government “is seeking political and economic diplomacy from west to east, from New York to Samarkand.”
