某些事情不应被沉默，总统乔·拜登在最近一次四方峰会上的私下谈话可能揭示了他对这个由美国、日本、印度和澳大利亚组成的集团对中国政策的真实想法。然而，全世界听到的却是过于简略且没有力度的回答。
四国联盟需要更加大胆地指责中国在南海的不当行为，并借鉴拜登的直接性风格。否则，它可能面临无关紧要与无力的命运。
中国对四方会晤自然持负面态度，视其为遏制它的平台。华盛顿通过聚集盟友、形成制衡力量，使这个全球第二大经济体感到不安。当拜登说中国在“考验”美国及其印太伙伴时，这种观念可能会更强烈。北京回应称，美国需要放弃以维护霸权、遏制中国的心理，并认为这种看法与事实不符。
我们是否能确信总统故意如此表达他的想法？毕竟，他因对包括美国总统习近平在内的其他领导者发表的直言不讳言论而臭名昭著，在支持台湾自治及捍卫国际法的同时，持续与北京产生冲突。或许是对于会晤结果感到失望，拜登决定亲自采取行动。
四方会晤并不是以其立场坚定而闻名。在2004年亚洲海啸后的一次紧急救援工作中，澳大利亚、印度、日本和美国四国曾合作得相当紧密。但当时日本首相安倍晋三希望重建这样的合作关系，面对中国可能成为印太地区安全威胁的担忧时。其他成员国对中国的依赖程度不同：战略上或经济上的，导致想法并未得到一致支持。
这一构想似乎在历史中消失了，作为澳大利亚前总理兼长期研究中国的专家Kevin Rudd所指出。到2017年，局势已发生变化——中美关系因中国在菲律宾附近南海岛屿的建设活动而紧张。北京不仅忽视了一项争议水域的国际仲裁裁决，该裁决确认了其他国家的权利，而且还忽略了其对有争议水域的主张。
澳大利亚和印度对中国的态度也变得不悦，分别涉及与中国的贸易报复和领土争端。当今的情况更是严峻。中国不仅在南海继续威胁菲律宾，还几乎占领了位于马尼拉专属经济区内的沙宾礁。此外，中国人民解放军海军与俄罗斯海军本周在一个地区进行了联合军演，显示了“四国+1”或“四国+2”的格局，这一集团正扩大在印太地区的影响力。
四方会晤的平淡声明令人失望，尽管其表述略显进步但仍不充分，从未直接点名中国。这表明盟友们正在逐渐接受这种不良行为，并使其正常化。延迟指责中国，意味着不良行为可能会持续下去。
印度与中国的边境争端以及地图上对中国的领土主张继续存在，是另一个原因，这可能影响了新德里更坚定立场的意愿。中国还未同意在地图上作出修正以反映其对印度领土的所有权声明。
四方会晤的未来悬而未决。随着美国总统拜登和日本首相菅义伟离职后留下的领导真空，中美俄之间日益激烈的动作——包括俄罗斯军机进入日本领空及中国在东海的挑衅行为，围绕着钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿与日本行政管辖权对峙的行为——四方会晤面临着挑战。
虽然这次峰会带来了一些成果，但不足以解决核心问题。2025年在南海开展联合海岸警卫巡逻的计划是一个良好的开始，然而需要进一步加强四国之间的对话和合作。为表达对于新德里贡献的认可，明年该地区将由印度主办四方峰会。
增强四方会晤效率的一条途径可能是吸纳更多的成员国，例如英国、越南等。这不仅能够减少印度政府对参与的热情缺失问题，还能增加更多国家在共同目标下团结的意愿。韩国可能也是一个潜在的候选人，尽管其之前对加入有迟疑。
“五方会”这个名字听起来颇具吸引力。中国在南海和台湾海峡的行动只会加剧，莫斯科或许会在一定程度上提供帮助。四方会晤需要制定具体的行动计划，而不是空洞的言辞。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China: Quad Needs More of Biden’s Hot-Mic Moments
新闻日期：2024-09-25
原文摘要：
Some things aren’t better left unsaid. President Joe Biden’s hot-mic at the weekend Quad summit may have been an example of what he really wanted the four-nation grouping to say about China. Instead, the world got a perfunctory . The alliance of the US, Japan, India and Australia needs to be bolder in calling out Beijing’s infractions in the South China Sea, and borrow some of Biden’s candor. Otherwise, it risks irrelevance and impotency. There’s no secret that China dislikes the Quad. It sees the union as an anti-Beijing quartet; a way for Washington to bring friends together and contain the world’s second-largest economy. That perception was likely further cemented by Biden’s , when he said China is “testing” the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing has , saying the “US needs to get rid of its obsession with perpetuating its supremacy and containing China.” Whether the president, who is infamous for his , did this deliberately, we’ll never know. He has a history of saying things that upset the Chinese — from calling President Xi Jinping a , to consistently standing up for , the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own. Perhaps, disappointed by the weakness of the Quad statement, he decided to take matters into his own hands.The group is not known for the strength of its convictions. A of the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, it was in the aftermath of the 2004 Asian tsunami, when Australia, India, Japan, and the US worked together on disaster responses.Abe believed the unit could come together again to face a China, which Tokyo clocked as a potential challenge to Indo-Pacific security. But there was no buy-in from the others because they all needed Beijing, either strategically or economically. So the idea faded away, seemingly consigned to the dustbin of history, as Kevin Rudd, longtime China expert and former Australian prime minister, .By 2017, no one needed much convincing. US-China relations were heading to a new over Beijing’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea near the Philippines, a key US ally. China dismissed a 2016 international tribunal ruling on the contested waterway, which found its claims of ownership. It also ignored the rights of other stakeholders to the lucrative waters. Australia and India had their own reasons to be annoyed with Beijing — over retaliation and a dispute, respectively. The threat is even greater today. Not only does the world’s second-largest economy continue to intimidate the Philippines in the South China Sea, it has all but taken of the Sabina Shoal, which sits Manila’s exclusive economic zone. Adding to concerns, the People’s Liberation Army’s naval unit and the Russian navy up a joint exercise in the waters this week. This alliance of — a pithy term for the grouping of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — is growing stronger in the Indo-Pacific. Which is why the Quad’s lukewarm statement, even though it was than last year’s, is so disappointing. It never once called China out by name, , resident senior fellow at the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute, pointed out. “These autocracies are willing to engage in military exercises in our neighborhoods,” she told me. “And the Quad has difficulty naming China in a joint statement? We are essentially normalizing this bad behavior. The more we delay calling China out, the longer the bad behavior will continue.” That reluctance could be coming from . India is involved in a four-year-long along its Himalayan border with China that is continuing to sour relations. The Chinese have yet to back down, maps to reflect their ownership of Indian territory. That may be a one of the reasons behind India’s hesitation in taking a stronger stand. The Quad’s future is at stake. Both Biden and the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are stepping , leaving a leadership vacuum. China and Russia are getting bolder by the day, with into Japanese airspace and Beijing’s provocations in the East China Sea, over what are known as the islands in Japan, which administers them, and the Diaoyu in China. The summit did bring some successes, though not enough. The to conduct joint coast guard patrols in the South China Sea in 2025 is a good first step, but more discussion among the four countries about future collaborations is urgently required. In a further recognition of New Delhi’s , it will host the summit next year. One way to turbo-charge the group would be to add more members to it: a Quad + 1, or a Quad + 2. This would have the dual effect of blunting New Delhi’s lack of enthusiasm, and also broaden the number of countries united in a common goal. Some obvious candidates include the UK, Vietnam and , although the latter two depend on China for economic assistance. South Korea, which has with being a member, could also be a possibility. The Quintet has a nice ring to it. The intensity of China’s actions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait will only continue, possibly with more assistance from Moscow. The Quad needs a plan of action, not just words. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
