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中国政府提出的‘巨额刺激计划’引发了一定程度的怀疑和谨慎。这里的“令人安慰”在于这样的做法可能预示着转机出现的可能性。如果每个人都高呼“这就是最终答案！”，那很可能就不会有效果。相反，大家普遍认为，“或许能提供短期提振效果”，这种期待感源自于香港及其他地区的直观反应。尽管如此，这些措施仍然不足以解决中国的深层结构性问题。
关键是，同时存在两种事实的正确性。也许这项举措确实不够强大。“在房地产泡沫破裂后的经济复苏”总是困难重重，尤其是在中国能够实际执行政策的背景下，这与中国所能调动资源的优势相辅相成。然而，即使中国经济未能实现根本性的转变或需要更长时间去解决这些问题，政策基调的变化本身仍具有重要意义。它至少表明了中国的决心在持续探索解决方案。
值得一提的是，中国政府已经开始实施“直升机式货币政策”的一部分策略，在即将到来的国家假期前分发“消费券”。这并非首次这样做，而是显示了一种努力的迹象。此外，全球最大的经济体——美国已展现出削减利率和宽松货币政策的意愿。无论谁在11月后掌舵白宫，都不再是紧缩政策的支持者。同时，世界上第二大经济体——中国也决定强调，虽然财富增长不再被视为荣耀，但更广泛的人口也不希望回溯至封建社会的生活状态。
这表明，在中国的背景下，也有更多的财政宽松迹象出现。资产价格通常喜欢看到“流动性”，即资金在市场中自由流动以寻找最佳投资机会。全球市场对此反应明显——黄金创下新的记录高位，首次以英镑计价超过2000英镑/盎司；白银也呈现出自2012年以来的最高水平。
值得注意的是，这种趋势从单纯的黄金价格上涨扩散到了与其紧密相关的“高风险”领域。尽管银有贵金属属性，但也受到其工业用途的影响。当白银价格上涨时，“背后原因”更多是由于黄金价格的上涨而不是货币贬值的担忧。
甚至在经历历史上最惨淡业绩的黄金矿业股也在开始复苏。我以前多次指出过，金融市场可能面临的下一个重大问题很可能是由通胀驱动而非通缩。美联储通过大幅降息消除了“左尾风险”，这意味着向市场传递了防止出现通缩危机的信息，并非意味着一切都会平稳无波折，未来也可能遇到问题，但这次与2008年的金融危机有所不同。
根据我的同事Allegra Stratton的观点，“现在并非悲观的时机。”关注我们Twitter账户上的实时新闻和分析，这能够帮助您紧跟政治干预对市场的影响变化。
以下是今日的市场概况：
富时100指数上涨0.1%，至约8280点；富时250指数上涨1.1%，至20990点；黄金价格上涨0.7%，每盎司2675美元；布伦特原油价格下跌约2.8%，至每桶71.40美元；比特币上涨1.6%，每个代币64480美元，以太坊上涨1.9%，每个代币2630美元。英镑兑美元升值0.4%，至每英镑1.338美元；欧元下跌0.2%，汇率为每欧元1.198美元。
如需了解更多关于公司破产、不良债务和转型故事的独家洞察，请订阅我们的每周二与五发布的“破产追踪”。
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新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stimulus: Stock Markets, Gold and Silver Keep Climbing
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
Welcome to the award-winning newsletter. I’m . Every week day I look at the biggest stories in markets and economics, and explain what it all means for your money.China’s Great Wall (of stimulus) has been greeted with a reassuring level of scepticism. I say “reassuring” because it means that this really might represent a bit of a turning point. If everyone was claiming “this is it!”, then it probably wouldn’t work. Instead, everyone is saying “yeah, maybe we get a sugar rush” (and they’re only saying that because it’s blatantly visible in the way Hong Kong and ) but overall it’s not enough. China’s problems are deep and structural, and it’ll take more to fix them.The thing is, two things can be true. It may well not be enough. “Fixing” an economy after a burst property bubble is hard, even when you have the advantage that China does of actually being able to get stuff done when it wants to (here in Britain, we’ve effectively banned that, ). However, even if China doesn’t get “fixed,” or it takes a long time to get there, the change of tone may still help. If nothing else, it’ll keep trying. Note that China is even throwing in a dash of “helicopter money” — handing out “consumption vouchers” — ahead of an upcoming national holiday (not the first time it’s done this, to be clear). More to the point, it can still be bullish for assets more broadly even if your average Chinese homeowner still has no idea what to do with their deep-in-negative-equity home. Why? Well, the world’s biggest economy — the US — is now keen to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy. Neither of the people who may run it after November are “austerity” presidents. And now, the world’s second-biggest economy — China — has decided that while it’s no longer necessarily glorious to get rich, the wider population doesn’t much relish the idea of heading back down the road to serfdom either. That change of attitude points to looser policy there too. What do asset prices (mostly) like? Money. Money just flowing around hunting for a home. Gold Hits a Fresh RecordYou can see it across the market, but most obviously, gold hit another new record today. It’s up in US dollars, but it also hit a big round milestone in sterling — it’s worth £2,000 an ounce now, for the first time ever.More intriguingly, that disreputable scamp silver finally seems to be waking up too — it’s at its highest level since 2012.This is striking because the gold bull market had previously been pretty much confined to the precious metal itself. I suspect that was due to the underlying nature of the buying, which was very much focused within central banks, who genuinely do buy gold as a “safe haven” — an asset whose value does not depend on the credit of another nation or company.(By contrast, I think it’s a mistake for individual investors to think of gold as a “safe haven,” because it can lose a lot of its nominal value in a short period of time, which means that in fact it’s rather risky, in financial market terms. But I digress.)Anyway, my point is that the rise in gold is spreading to its “higher-beta” plays. Silver has a reputation as a bit of monetary metal but it’s heavily influenced by its industrial uses too. So when it’s going up, the underlying reason is more “it’s because gold is going up” than “it’s because I’m scared of currency devaluation.”Even the gold miners — definite contenders for the most disappointing individual stock market sector in history — seem to be picking up the pace somewhat. I’ve said before, on many, many occasions, that I think the next big problem for financial markets (whatever it ends up being) will be one driven by inflation rather than deflation.Edward Harrison, who writes the excellent , pointed out the other day that with its jumbo rate cut, the Fed has “eliminated the left tail,” which is a grown-up finance-y way of saying that the US central bank is reassuring markets that a deflationary crash is off the menu. It doesn’t mean that everything is hunky-dory and it doesn’t mean we won’t run into trouble in the longer run. But when we do, it will look different to the last big crash in 2008. And in the meantime, as Harrison puts it, “it’s not time to be bearish.” Send any feedback, opinions or questions to and I’ll print the best. If you were forwarded this email by a friend or colleague, .Looking at wider markets — the FTSE 100 is up 0.1% at around 8,280. The FTSE 250 is up 1.1% at 20,990. Gold is up 0.7% at $2,675 an ounce, and oil (as measured by Brent crude) is down about 2.8% to $71.40 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 1.6% at $64,480 per coin, while Ethereum is up 1.9% at $2,630. The pound is up 0.4% against the US dollar at $1.338, and is down 0.2% against the euro at €1.198. Follow for up-to-the-minute news and analysis that move markets. We’re in a world where politics and political interventions matter far more to markets than they did in the pre-2008 era of consensus, globalisation, and voter apathy. So be sure to read my colleague Allegra Stratton’s daily newsletter, , to keep up. The main stories to watch out for on Friday include: , our newsletter chronicling corporate bankruptcies, distressed debt, and turnaround stories, delivered Tuesdays and Fridays. And if you want up-to-the-minute news commentary with the odd joke flung in, follow me on .
