长久期盼的中国经济复苏迹象终于出现。在近期政局稳定之后，中国的高层领导层承诺将增加财政支持，并稳定房地产行业，以提振经济增长。周三（周四对应当地时间），CSI 300指数出现了近十年来最大单周涨幅达4.2%，其中消费品股票领涨，这次大幅度上涨有望终结长达三年的连续下跌记录。同时，美国上市的中国公司组成的金龙指数也升幅高达11%。
在经历了多月的低迷后，政治局的这一声明与近期采取的一系列大胆举措共同作用下，或能助力中国经济摆脱衰退困境。这是一个重要的里程碑：随着全球对新兴市场资金的显著关注和华尔街顶级银行如摩根士丹利及高盛对于转机故事的日益谨慎，中国正成为焦点。
“这表明北京当局重视经济状况。” RBC资产管理公司的一位投资组合经理表示，“尽管我们还需要看到这些措施是否有效，但承认经济面临问题并需要解决是迈出的重要一步。”
在周四的政治局会议中，官方也呼吁要坚决落实下调利率和降低银行准备金比率等宽松政策，并强调将支持资本市场，指引长期资金流入股市。这样的措辞表明了决策者对经济复苏的迫切感。
随着政府宣布向极度贫困人群发放一次性补助，消费类股票在内地指数上表现优异；金融股的表现则反映了有关当局正在考虑向最大国有银行注入1万亿元人民币（约1420亿美元）资本的消息。
这种乐观情绪已超越了股市范围。香港和中国境内的股票市场在周四开盘后立即上涨，显示出投资者不愿错失参与中国经济复苏的机会。在此背景下，股票普遍处于多年低点，而中国政府宣布的数年最大规模刺激计划也提振了市场情绪。
然而，尽管多数市场观察者对调整多项政策杠杆表示欢迎，但也有人警告称此次反弹可能只是战术上的短期回暖，并质疑这些措施能否真正解决中国长期面临的问题，如消费疲软、价格下滑和房地产市场僵局。
“如果不见到实质性的结构性变革，在我看来市场将出现类似日本的情形，即会有积极的公告、剧烈的上涨后缺乏持续跟进，接着一段时间的平静，然后再次出现正面消息但同样无果而终的局面。” 瑞士宝盛亚洲区首席投资官如此评论。
但就目前而言，市场普遍对这一复苏信号抱有极高的期望，并认为这可能是北京为扭转局势所采取的最佳举措之一。“香港和中国内地股市在周四政治局发布会公布后立即上涨，显示出投资者不希望错过参与中国经济复苏的机会。此时的股票价格正处于多年低点，且伴随着近年来规模最大的刺激政策发布。” 金斯顿证券公司研究主管这样说道。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stocks Jump as Politburo Vows Fiscal Support to Hit Goals
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
The long-awaited recovery in Chinese may finally be here.The CSI 300 is headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost a decade after China’s top leaders delivered a pledge to increase fiscal support and stabilize the property sector to revive growth. The gauge’s 4.2% jump on Thursday was led by consumer stocks and the rally put the benchmark on course to halt an unprecedented three-year losing streak. Meanwhile, the Golden Dragon index of US-listed Chinese stocks also rallied 11%. The Politburo’s vow comes on the heels of one of China’s most daring in decades and taken together, they may finally help haul Asia’s biggest economy out of a slump. There’s a lot at stake: China is being increasingly of emerging-market equity fund launches and top Wall Street banks such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have grown ever more skeptical about the turnaround story.“It shows Beijing cares,” said , portfolio manager at RBC Asset Management, referring to the latest policy announcement. “Whether these measures will be effective, that’s another topic, but admitting there’s an issue with the economy that needs to be addressed is the first step.”READ: Officials also called on the forceful implementation of cuts to interest rates and a reserve requirement ratio for banks, easing measures announced by the People’s Bank of China this week. They would strive to boost the capital market and “greatly guide” mid-to-long term funds into the stock market, according to the readout for the meeting. The language showed renewed urgency from the policymakers.Consumer shares led gains on the onshore gauge following the government’s of one-off cash handouts to people in extreme poverty. A sub-gauge of financial stocks was among the best performers after it was reported that authorities are considering up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks. The optimism spread beyond mainland shares, with the rallying 4.8% to reach the highest level since February 2023.Turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen topped 1 trillion yuan for a second day, the first time since May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The heightened activity is commonly construed as a bullish sign.Moves were more muted in the currency and bond markets, with the yuan holding onto a modest gain and yields edging higher.While most market watchers that the simultaneous changes to multiple policy levers were encouraging, some cautioned that the rally may only be a tactical rebound. Doubt persists that the measures can fix China’s long-standing problems including weak consumption, falling prices and an entrenched property crisis.“Unless there is meaningful structural change, my sense is we’re going to have a situation in markets akin to Japan where we would have positive announcements, sharp rally, then a lack of follow through, then a period of quiet, then positive news, lack of follow through,” said , chief investment officer for Asia at Lombard Odier.Read more: But for now, optimism is running high that this may be Beijing’s best shot yet to turn things around.“Hong Kong and Chinese onshore stocks shot up immediately after the Politburo readout, showing that investors don’t want to miss the chance to chase the China rally with the stocks trading at multi-year low levels and you have the biggest stimulus package announced in years,” said , executive director of research at Kingston Securities Ltd.
