豆类期货在本周面临自一年多来最大的涨幅，这是在全球粮食价格普遍上涨的背景下产生的。这些涨幅与主要进口国中国推出的经济刺激措施以及主产区不利天气条件直接相关。
随着中国公布了大规模的购入大豆计划，作为全球最大大豆买家的地位得到强化。而热带风暴海伦袭击佛罗里达州时被升级为飓风，其强风预计将影响玉米带的部分地区，并可能推迟田间工作。石克斯公司首席商品经济学家指出：“海伦带来的大风问题依然存在，整个东部中部地区今晚都有大风警报，可能看到高达70英里的阵风涌入印第安纳州中央。”
豆粕期货在周五飙升了5.8%，自2023年6月以来的最高涨幅。这主要源于投机者的疯狂交易，以及对海湾和沿海设施基础设施受损的担忧。Marex集团首席农业策略师表示：“周五豆粕市场出现狂热，主要是由于短空仓位回补和对设施损坏的关注。”
作物期货在近期从中国缓慢的需求中反弹后，现在正在恢复生机，因美国的收获有可能受到影响。如今，在中国的经济获得刺激、美国收成可能受干扰的情况下，便宜的商品正吸引更多的购买兴趣。Nesvick Trading Group在纳什维尔的粮食分析师指出：“商品被认为比股市更实惠，这激发了对商品市场的新兴趣。”
同时，美元近期贬值也支持了需求。豆类期货中，11月交货价格周五最高上涨2.7%，推动本周涨幅有望超过5%，为自去年6月以来的最大单周涨幅。而12月交割的玉米期货则上涨1.6%，这标志着本周的反弹几乎达到4%。
全球各地天气问题成为市场关注焦点。据咨询公司Sovecon报道，由于恶劣天气影响，俄罗斯冬季谷物种植已处于近11年来的最低水平。在澳大利亚，小麦产量受到该国西部干燥条件和南部地区严寒霜冻的影响而受阻。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Soybean Futures Poised for Biggest Weekly Gain in Over a Year
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
Soybean futures headed for the biggest weekly gain in more than a year amid a broader grains rally driven by economic stimulus in top importer China and adverse weather in major growing regions.The rally comes as China, the world’s biggest buyer of soy, unveiled a broad package of . Meanwhile, tropical storm Helene, which into Florida as a hurricane, will bring strong winds to parts of the Corn Belt, potentially delaying fieldwork.“Helene’s high winds continue to be a problem as well, with high-wind warnings out for much of the eastern Midwest into tonight, where we could see 70 mph gusts into central Indiana,” StoneX chief commodities economist said in a note.Soymeal futures soared as much as 5.8% on Friday, the most since June last year. Short covering and concerns over infrastructure damage for Gulf and other seaboard facilities “created a speculator frenzy” in soymeal trading on Friday, said , senior agricultural strategist at Marex Group Plc.Row crop futures are rebounding after slow demand from China and the prospect of bumper harvests in the US sent prices to four-year lows in August. Now, with China’s economy receiving stimulus and the US harvest potentially disrupted, cheap commodities are seeing more purchasing interest, said , grains analyst for Nesvick Trading Group in Nashville.“Commodities are viewed as cheap relative to equities, which has spurred renewed interest in the commodity markets,” said Basse. “We’ve also seen the dollar decline in recent weeks, which could support demand.”Soybean futures for November delivery gained as much as 2.7% on Friday, sending prices toward a weekly gain of more than 5% for the week — the most since June 2023. Corn futures for December delivery rose as much as 1.6%, bringing the week’s rally to almost 4%. Traders are keeping an eye on weather problems throughout the world. Arid conditions are set to persist in northern and central Brazil, lifting corn futures. Wheat is up about 2% this week, with winter grains planting in Russia at an 11-year due to bad weather, according to consultant SovEcon. In Australia, wheat production is being by dry conditions in the country’s west and severe frosts in the southern regions.
