投资者应继续推进近期由中国刺激措施带来的股市与人民币增值，以及债券市值下降的趋势，这是Eurizon SLJ Capital首席执行官詹伦在其对客户的报告中提出的观点。“全球投资者对中国投资组合配置严重不足，而中国股票和货币被过度低估，一场显著的反弹完全有可能发生。”詹伦在周五的一份报告中指出。
詹伦进一步表示，鉴于美国可能减息导致中国企业或受激励出售1万亿美元美元计价资产的可能性，这一论断是其见解的一部分。他的看法得到了包括亿万富翁巴菲特在内的投资人的支持，在中国宣布大规模刺激政策之后对中国的态度转为积极。
最新的一轮政策宽松措施使得上周末股市指数实现了自2008年以来的最大单周涨幅，然而根据美国银行9月对全球基金经理的调查数据，有19%的受访者表示“做空中国股票”是最受欢迎的投资策略之一。与此同时，中国加大了刺激力度与美联储减息相呼应，并且石油价格持续低迷，风险资产预期将表现良好。
詹伦创立了“美元微笑理论”，该理论认为，在美国经济处于高速扩张或深度衰退阶段时，美元会相应升值。他对货币的看法是，考虑到美国通胀将逐步接近零的态势，以及全球最大的经济体实现“软着陆”的情况，预计美元将相对欧元、日元和人民币贬值。
综上所述，在美国大选后，詹伦预期全球股市将于年底前展现出强劲势头。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：‘Serious Rally’ in Chinese Stocks Possible, Says Eurizon’s Jen
新闻日期：2024-09-29
原文摘要：
Investors should extend the recent stimulus-fuelled gains in Chinese equities and the yuan as well as the decline in the country’s bonds, according to of Eurizon SLJ Capital.“Investors are so underweight everything Chinese, and are extremely undervalued that a serious rally is entirely possible,” Jen, Eurizon SLJ’s London-based chief executive officer, said in a report to clients on Friday.Jen, who said that Chinese companies may be enticed to sell a $1 trillion pile of dollar-denominated assets as the US cuts interest rates, follows investors including billionaire in expressing on China after its government introduced sweeping stimulus measures.The policy-easing blitz lifted the index last week to its biggest gain since 2008, yet 19% of respondents to Bank of America Corp.’s September survey of global fund managers said “shorting Chinese stocks” was one of the most popular trades.With China stepping up at the same time as the is cutting interest rates, and with oil prices remaining low, risk assets “ought to do very well,” Jen said.“After the US election, I expect global equities to rally powerfully into year-end,” he added.Jen, the creator of the “dollar smile” theory which posits that the greenback rises when the US economy is either booming or in a deep slump, expects the currency to trade lower against the euro, yen and yuan, as US inflation slows toward zero and the world’s biggest economy “soft lands.”
