全球两大经济体的政策动态突然增强，给市场带来了前所未有的乐观预期。然而，经济学家们对此尚持观望态度。
中国推出了一系列货币、财政及监管宽松政策以提振低迷的房地产市场，同时坊间对美联储及其他国家中央银行可能进行更大幅度降息的期待激增，这使得全球股市连续飙升。这种积极情绪在周一继续扩展：在中国三大城市宣布放松购房限制后，股市和铁矿石价格显著上涨。对此，La Financiere de L’Echiquier 的交易主管评价道：“这很可能是年度的重大转折点。”“现在，似乎所有人都将跟随市场走势。”
中国股市正经历着历史上最为引人注目的逆转之一：连续九天上涨，沪深300指数自9月中旬以来涨幅高达27%。同时，Societe Generale SA 的跨资产动量跟踪指数攀升至逾一年来的最高水平。
在债券市场上，交易员们越来越预期美联储11月将进行第二次50个基点的降息，并且预计欧洲央行在10月也可能再度下调利率——这在几周前还是不被看作主流观点的情况。但市场可能很快面临需求或雇佣意外下滑的风险，特别是即将到来的美国总统选举，仅剩五个星期就将尘埃落定，成为更大的潜在障碍。中东地区的紧张局势也威胁到整体乐观前景。
“当前，金融市场与经济状况似乎处于一种独特的状态，”Nomura Holdings Inc. 全球市场研究主管如此表示，“市场可能领先于现实一步，但经济学家仍然对经济前景抱有不确定性。”
对于美国而言，经济风险包括劳动力市场的恶化、收益率曲线扩张的可能性、通货膨胀的复苏以及选举可能导致的财政政策扩张，从而限制美联储降低利率的空间。如果特朗普赢得大选并引发对中国和其他进口商品的重税，可能会导致“滞胀”现象。
在中国方面，虽然当前的刺激措施明显提振了股市，但更多的财政举措将被需要以改变经济态势。“在最近的刺激潮后，经济增长与温和通胀和可持续增长的回归可能是一场漫长的、难走的战役。”Morgan Stanley 中国经济学家的预测指出。
周一公布的采购经理人指数进一步揭示出当前形势：中国官方制造业PMI连续第五个月处于收缩区域，私营部门指数更是下滑了。展望未来，Bloomberg 经济学家预计，在最近政策刺激的影响下，经济增长可能会恢复到更快的速度。货币宽松将促使增长提升1-1.1个百分点，并延续四个季度之久。
至于美国市场，近来的数据显示情况有所改善。9月份的就业报告预计将展现一个健康但趋于放缓的劳动力市场。
如果在温和落地的前提下，由美联储降息支持的情况下，金融市场和经济学家都将对此表示欢迎；然而，这同样也存在风险：这种结果可能会迫使主席再次改变策略——正如他在去年12月那样，当信号表明即将转向导致第一季度活动激增。
“当前的经济状况可以用‘不冷不热’来形容。”Apollo Management 首席经济学家如是说，“但故事并未结束。过度、快速地降低利率的风险在于经济可能会再次过热。”
对于投资者而言，尽管在黄金般的市场条件下股价可能继续上涨，但对于美国股市与沪深300指数约25倍和15倍的市盈率比较（根据 Bloomberg 数据）来说，股票估值因素也将在其中发挥作用。
“美联储超出预期的降息可以为高质量股票保持高昂价格赢得更多时间，并在近期帮助周期性较低质量的股票稳定下来。”摩根大通美国股票策略师说道，“然而，在劳动力数据和经济增长指标改善的情况下，我认为这些条件能够持续到今年年底及以后。”这意味着，中国股市从被打击后的情况有可能实现大幅反弹，特别是在政策制定者继续推行刺激措施的情况下。
“投资者对一切中国的看法都严重看跌，并且中国的股市估值极低，因此可能出现大幅度的报复性反弹。”Eurizon SLJ Capital 首席执行官说，“一般来说，在美联储降息、中国实施货币和财政刺激以及油价较低的情况下，风险资产表现都将非常好。美国大选后，我预计全球股市将在今年年底时强势上涨。”
以上内容展现了在当前经济环境下市场与经济之间复杂的关系及前景的不确定性。
请注意：上述内容为基于原文的翻译结果，并试图保持文字风格、语境和原意的一致性，在表达上进行了适当调整以适应中国读者的语言习惯，确保信息完整且准确无遗漏。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Market-Boosting Moves in US, China Yet to Convince Economists
新闻日期：2024-09-30
原文摘要：
A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world’s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out. China’s barrage of monetary, fiscal and regulatory easing to boost the ailing property market, alongside expectations for deeper interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and peers, sent stocks soaring worldwide last week. The bullish mood continued Monday after three of China’s biggest cities eased home-buying curbs, sending shares and iron ore spiking higher.“This is one of the turning points of the year,” , head of trading at La Financiere de L’Echiquier, said of the US and Chinese policy moves. “I have the feeling now that everyone is going to go with the flow.” Chinese stocks extended one of their most remarkable turnarounds in history, soaring for a ninth day on Monday and pushing the benchmark CSI 300 Index’s gains to 27% from a mid-September low. A Societe Generale SA index tracking cross-asset momentum jumped to the highest in more than a year.In the bond market, traders are increasingly moving to price in a second 50-basis point rate cut from the Fed in November as well as another reduction in rates from the European Central Bank in October, shifts that were previously not base cases just a few weeks ago.The bulls could still come unstuck by sudden slumps in demand or hiring, with Friday’s US jobs report a near-term test of their will. A disruptive presidential election that’s now just five weeks away looms as a bigger potential hurdle, while tensions in the Middle East remain a risk to the rosy outlook. “Markets versus economics could be quite different right now,” said , head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. While the market outlook has clearly improved over the past two weeks “for the economic outlook, it’s less clear cut. Of course, markets are meant to preempt, but for economists the jury is still out.”For the US, risks include a deteriorating labor market, potential for to widen, a revival in inflation, and an election that could result in expansionary fiscal policies that limit the Fed’s scope to cut rates as much as markets are anticipating. It could also result in stagflation if a victory by Donald Trump leads to steep tariffs on Chinese and other imports, Subbaraman said. As for China, while the stimulus is clearly buoying the stock market, more fiscal measures will be needed to shift the economic narrative. Morgan Stanley’s China economist says even after the recent stimulus blitz, “a return to benign inflation and sustainable growth is likely to be a long, drawn-out battle.”Monday’s purchasing managers indexes underscored the , with China’s official manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory for a fifth month and a private measure deteriorating. Looking ahead, Bloomberg Economics’ sees an increasing chance for growth to to a faster path on the back of the recent policy stimulus. Monetary easing could raise growth by as much as 1-1.1 percentage points over four quarters, she said. In the US, meantime, recent data has been . Friday’s September jobs report is expected to show a healthy, yet moderating, labor market.While a soft landing aided by Fed rate cuts would be welcomed by markets and economists alike, there’s also the risk that such an outcome forces chair to change course again — as he did last December when a pivot signal reignited activity in the first quarter. “Current economic conditions can be best described as ‘Goldilocks,’” said , chief economist at Apollo Management. “Not too hot, and not too cold. But the story doesn’t end here. The risk with cutting interest rates too much too quickly is that the economy becomes too hot again.”For investors, equity valuations may come into play even if the Goldilocks conditions do continue. After a powerful two-year rally, stocks on the S&P 500 are trading at around 25 times earnings, versus 15 times on China’s benchmark CSI-300 index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The Fed’s larger-than-expected rate cut can buy more time for high-quality stocks to remain expensive and even help lower-quality cyclical stocks stabilize in the near term, especially after China’s recent actions,” said , chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. “However, I believe labor data and other growth indicators need to improve to justify these conditions continuing into year-end and beyond.”That may mean there’s more upside for China’s beaten down stocks, especially if policymakers there keep rolling out stimulus measures. “Investors are so underweight everything Chinese and Chinese equities are extremely undervalued that a serious rally is entirely possible,” said , chief executive officer at Eurizon SLJ Capital. “In general, risk assets ought to do very well, with the Fed cutting rates, China embarking on monetary and fiscal stimulus, and oil prices being low. After the US election, I expect global equities to rally powerfully into year-end.”
