在谈及中国的股市时，乐观情绪正在占据主导地位。上周政府宣布的大规模刺激计划推高了香港交易的中国股票指数，使其录得近13年来最佳周涨幅之一，预示2024年可能成为全球表现最好的市场之一。市场参与者追逐这股上涨行情的同时，一个月后的股市波动性对冲成本升至近两年高位，相对六月期合约激增，反映出对未来中期的强劲信心。
在短短几天内，中国政府采取了一系列举措，旨在刺激消费、房地产市场以及本地股市，使自本月开始疲软的中国股市出现反弹。此前几周，因一系列令人失望的经济数据导致投资者担忧中国未能达到5%的年度增长目标，情况似乎有所好转。而本月早些时候，China Enterprises指数的估值接近7倍于下一年度12个月预期盈利——这远低于五年平均水平中的8倍。
但这一切在上周发生逆转。中国政府下调了利率、提高了银行储备比例，并减少了借贷成本；承诺投入数十亿美元提振股市；宣布一系列措施刺激消费者消费；甚至向地方企业提供了支持。随着股价上涨，防止中国企业的指数下跌的成本达到了2015年新低，当时该指数创下多年高位。同时，看涨合约数量创下了六月以来的最高水平与看跌合约相对比。
在美国市场，包括亿万富翁在内的投资者对香港及中国的证券交易产生了兴趣。追踪亚洲国家股市的交易所交易基金（ETF）期权交易量激增，其中多头押注占主导地位，一些早先买入看涨期权的投资人在本周开始获利了结，而其他人通过调整为看涨价差等策略继续持有。
与此同时，针对短期中国的美国存托凭证（American Depositary Receipts, ADRs）期权交易量同样激增。在波动性突然上升的情况下，如果上涨趋势出现疲软，专家警告投资者需要谨慎对待买入保护性期权的策略，“当价格下跌而隐含波动率也同时下降时，长期看跌期权持有者可能会面临严重的回报限制，即使股价实际下滑。”投资策略师补充道。
Manulife Investment Management资产管理部高级组合经理指出，在短期内期待香港和中国股市出现有力反弹是合理的，尤其是鉴于投资者过度谨慎导致的潜在反转效应，“我们预计香港和中国股市会因这种非常保守的投资配置而经历有意义的短期上涨，这为快速覆盖空头头寸提供了机会。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Hedging Goes Out the Door With Burst of China Stocks Euphoria
新闻日期：2024-09-29
原文摘要：
When it comes to Chinese equities, the dominant feeling has turned to optimism. The nation’s bazooka stimulus announced last week has pushed a gauge of Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong to its best weekly surge in almost 13 years, putting it on track to become one of the world’s for 2024. What’s more, market participants chasing the rally have sent the cost of volatility hedges over the next month spiking to a two-year high relative to six-month contracts, indicating confidence for the medium term. In just a few days, China boosted measures to spur everything from consumer spending to the housing market and local equities. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which earlier this month was barely up for the year, rebounded more than 22% in 11 consecutive days, its longest streak of gains since its glory days of 2018. “It seems like this time the Chinese government feels the urgency to change,” said , a San Francisco-based portfolio manager at Matthews Asia. “The rally can continue if investors are convinced that the Chinese government will continue to support the market. The Chinese market was just too cheap.”Also read: Shares of the nation had been struggling as a slew of disappointing economic data had made investors it would meet its annual expansion target of 5%. Earlier this month, the China Enterprises index’s valuation came close to 7 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months — compared with more than 8 times for the five-year average. But everything changed last week. China cut interest rates, the banks’ reserve ratio and borrowing costs; pledged billions of dollars to boost equities; announced handouts to spur consumer spending; and even rolled out support to local . As stocks rallied, protecting against declines in the China Enterprises gauge became the cheapest since 2015 — the year the gauge reached a multiyear high. At the same time, the number of bullish contracts outstanding hit its highest level since June relative to bearish ones. In the US, where investors including billionaire were among those Chinese securities, trading of options on exchange-traded funds tracking the Asian nation’s stocks surged. Bullish bets dominated, with some early call buyers taking profits later in the week and others rolling positions through call spreads. Trading of short-term contracts on American depositary receipts of Chinese companies . Also read: The sudden spike in volatility could reverse if the rally peters out, warned , co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.“Investors looking to hedge the move via buying puts should be very careful of a situation where prices pull back but implied volatility levels also drop, severely limiting gains on long puts even if the underlying drops,” he said. Buying put spreads, protective collars or overwriting to reduce exposure makes more sense, he added. , senior portfolio manager for asset allocation at Manulife Investment Management, says that even though concerns remain over the mainland’s economy in the longer term, now optimism prevails. “We expect a meaningful short-term rally in Hong Kong and China stocks markets owing to the very cautious investor positioning, which creates the potential for a sharp short-covering led bounce,” Franklin said.
