过去三个月内，亚洲资产市场经历了剧烈波动。这一系列的变动最终在中国推出大规模刺激政策的影响下达到高潮，并推动了该地区股市成为全球表现最为突出的板块。这一势头现在成为了全球投资者的关注焦点，尤其是他们在为美国降息和即将举行的总统大选可能带来的金融市场动荡做准备之时。
这期间的事件导致了股票、债券、信贷、货币和商品市场的动荡。其中包括日本央行意外加息引发的股市大幅下跌，美联储开始降息以及中国长期延迟后的经济刺激政策释放等重大事件。尽管最终数据显示亚洲大多数地区股市和外汇表现健康，新兴市场出现反弹，日圆“融资交易”受到重挫，但整个故事更为复杂。
全球投资者对于轻视中国资产的态度将需要重新评估。据香港Allianz Global Investors的基金经理表示，在北京推出促进银行放贷、降低借贷成本及放宽房地产限制等一系列措施后，中国股市9月尾部出现暴涨，为全球投资者带来了反思其对中国经济增长预期的机会。他说：“关键问题是要看到企业盈利前景的改善，我们预计这将随着时间推移而发生，尤其是在房地产业风头转向时。”
目前，中国市场的繁荣似乎尚未全面扩散到亚洲其他地区市场。然而，考虑到该地区的紧密交易联系，一旦投资者确信新一刺激政策的有效性，其他股市很可能会得到提振。
美联储9月18日宣布开始降息50个基点的决定助推了区域新兴市场的上涨，菲律宾和泰国的基准指数均在季度内录得超过10%的增长。日本的日经225指数却首次连续第二年出现季度亏损，原因是日本央行意外加息导致股价跌幅达到近35年来最大水平，并引发日圆升值与“融资交易”的解体。
对于股市暴跌的主要原因，东京Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management的首席市场策略师解释说：“美国经济不确定性、科技股估值调整以及日元走强等因素同时出现，引发了这场股市大跌。”
尽管日本股市的基础吸引力仍然存在，并有可能在西方主要经济体央行在控制通胀的同时避免陷入衰退的情况下进一步增强。他指出，投资者对于本周五即将上任的新首相石破茂的政策持不确定态度，这将为市场带来一些短期的不确定性。
美国与中国的紧张局势加剧可能在特朗普11月赢得美国总统大选后对亚洲地区产生额外波动。“如果唐纳德·特朗普赢得了这次选举，最直接的负面担忧将是60%关税对中国商品的影响及其对中国经济增长的冲击。”法国巴黎银行香港办公室的股票策略主管指出。
中国释放出的财政刺激对某些商品市场产生了巨大影响。9月30日，在三个大城市的购房限制放宽后，金价单日飙升11.4%，此前该金属全年一直是表现最差的主要商品之一。
综上所述，中国的支持措施不仅提升了亚洲风险资产和公司债的表现，而且在短期内稳定了中国风险市场的前景，并且需要时间来真正使市场信服。而近期的刺激政策也表明了全球宽松周期对印度、韩国等较晚跟进国家可能带来的相对高收益机会，高盛策略分析师在上周的研究报告中指出。
美联储降息支撑了收益率更高的债券市场。期间海外基金大量流入当地货币市场的印度和印尼债务，马来西亚林吉特则创造了历史季度最高涨幅（逾14%）。
亚洲尚未充分参与全球宽松周期的经济体如印度或韩国，在其央行转向鸽派政策时可能为投资者提供最佳相对回报。这一判断基于其在应对短期内可能出现的通胀压力的同时避免经济衰退的情况。
更重要的是，中国的新刺激措施还将支持风险资产，包括企业债务。中国的支撑将帮助近期的市场情况，并需要时间进一步影响市场的长期信心。亚洲资产当前的波动性预示着未来的不稳定性，为全球投资者重新考虑其亚洲市场配置提供了启示。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Suddenly Asia Is Place to Be as Stocks, Currencies Outperform
新闻日期：2024-10-01
原文摘要：
Asian assets swung violently over the past three months, rocked by a succession of epochal events that culminated in a giant stimulus boost for China and propelled the region’s equities to world beaters.Having gained momentum, they’re now a focal point for global investors preparing for lower US interest rates and a presidential election likely to further shake up financial markets.It all points to an extended period of volatility after stock, bond, credit, currency and commodity markets were roiled by Japan’s , the start of Federal Reserve easing and the unleashing of that long-delayed economic stimulus in China. The final results — healthy gains for most regional equities and foreign exchange, a bounceback in emerging markets, and the torpedoing of the yen carry trade — only tell part of the story.MSCI’s gauge of beat both its and in the same quarter for the first time since 2022. The regional index was powered by a late September surge in equities in China, where the benchmark rallied after the authorities to boost bank lending, lower borrowing costs and ease housing curbs.The measures from Beijing will compel global investors to rethink light China allocations, said , a fund manager at Allianz Global Investors in Hong Kong. “A key issue will be to see an improved outlook for corporate earnings. We expect this will happen over time, especially when headwinds from the property sector start to ease.”So far, there are few signs that the euphoria from China has spread to other Asian equity markets. Given the region’s close trading links, stocks elsewhere may get a boost once investors are convinced of the effectiveness of the latest stimulus.The Fed’s decision to start rate cuts with a 50 basis-point move on Sept. 18 helped power a rally in many of the region’s emerging markets. Benchmark gauges in the Philippines and Thailand both gained more than 10% over the quarter.Not all Asian stock markets prospered.Japan’s had its first quarterly loss in two years after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly hiked rates in July. The decision saw Japanese share prices plummet by the most since 1987. The rate increase boosted the yen and led to an unwinding of the yen carry trade — where investors had borrowed in the Japanese currency to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets elsewhere.“Uncertainty about the US economy, the adjustment of tech stocks, and the yen rally happened all at once, triggering the big drop in stocks,” said , chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management in Tokyo. Still, the underlying appeal for Japanese shares remains broadly intact, and would be bolstered further if developed-market central banks tame inflation without causing a recession, he said.Looking ahead, investors in Japan also face some uncertainty surrounding the likely policies of Shigeru Ishiba, who is set to be confirmed as the nation’s on Tuesday.The yen strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers over the quarter as it benefited from the narrowing interest-rate differentials between the US and Japan. Strategists see the currency holding onto those gains to around current levels at 142 per dollar.The Fed’s rate cut bolstered higher-yielding bonds. Overseas funds poured around $9 billion into local-currency Indian and Indonesian debt in the quarter. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s ringgit jumped by more than 14%, a record quarterly gain based on data compiled by Bloomberg.Economies in Asia that are late to the global easing cycle, such as India or South Korea, may offer some of the best relative returns in the near term as their central banks pivot to dovish policy settings, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including and wrote in a research note last week.The start of the Fed’s easing cycle also helped support appetite for Asia’s corporate debt.“You ease financial conditions further and it should extend the credit cycle,” said , a portfolio manager for Asia credit at T. Rowe Price Group in Hong Kong. “That should be constructive for emerging-markets credit spreads and Asia credit spreads.”Moreover, China’s support measures will help risk assets, including corporate debt, Chan said. “It does underpin Chinese risk assets in the near term,” but “will take time to really convince the market further out.”The stimulus announced by China also had an outsized impact on some commodity markets. more than 11% on Sept. 30 alone after three of the nation’s biggest cities eased curbs on home buying, bolstering the outlook for demand. Prior to that, the metal had been one of the year’s worst-performing major commodities. The prospect of heightened tensions between the US and China if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November may add further volatility to the region.“The most immediate concern on the negative side is going to be the case of a Trump victory, given the report of a likely 60% tariff on all the Chinese goods and its impact on China’s economic growth,” said , head of equity strategy at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
