香港恒生指数与追踪其期权成本的指标在过去六日持续同向变动。而前一次出现这种现象时，恒指随后上涨了约30%，在接下来两个月里激增。目前，中国市场是否还会继续攀升还难以预测，但不可否认，看涨情绪确实已经开始复苏。
恒生指数自周一以来已连续五天累计飙升16%，创下两年来最大涨幅；中国CSI 300指数的单日涨幅更是创下了2008年以来的新高，推动了市场进入牛市。在周二因假日休市的情况下，香港股市与波动性指标在周三再次上升。
中国宣布了一系列措施以提振经济：包括利率下调、降低银行存款准备金率等，并投入数百亿美元支持股票市场和放宽对购房者的政策。这一系列举措也波及期权市场，投资者竞相购入短期合约推高了价格。“中国政府正在实施它之前承诺不会执行的政策。”新加坡Global CIO Office公司的首席执行官如此评价道，“直升机撒钱与房地产行业援助措施正逆转其原本的财政节制和房地产市场的重新定位计划。目前看来，市场上涨中国股票市场进一步上涨可能不是坏事。”
9月23日后，恒生指数与波动率指标在接下来五天中同步攀升至高点，这是自2022年11月以来首次出现如此长时间的同向走势。该现象表明，香港和中国大陆的股市市场正处于低迷状态。
亚洲市场中，投资者通常倾向于通过购买看涨期权来追求上涨收益，导致“spot up, vol up”现象。当前情况下的大幅波动往往会在整体市场情绪低迷或被压抑时被放大，正如此时的香港和中国股市市场所发生的情况一样。
恒生指数与波动率指标今年将创下历史最高相关度，同向走势天数达到49%。而在美国，标普500指数与VIX在过去历史上有21%的时间同步变动过。
然而，根据瑞士银行UBS的估计，恒生指数仍有上升的空间。该银行已将其年底目标价上调至22,100点，较周一收盘价高出4.6%。全球资金，尤其是那些曾削减中国股市敞口的资金正在准备重返市场，Value Partners公司副首席投资官表示，“市场上将有一笔大量的资金需要分配到香港和中国大陆的股票上。”“我们预期中国股票市场将经历中期至长期的上涨行情。”
请注意，这些内容是对未来可能性的一种预测，并不能保证实际结果。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Options Scenario That’s Led to Hong Kong Stock Gains Is Back
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
For six straight days, Hong Kong’s benchmark stocks gauge and a measure tracking the cost of its options moved in the same direction. The last time that happened, the went on to surge 30% in about two months. Only time will tell whether Chinese and Hong Kong markets will climb further, but for now the bull spirits have definitely come out. The Hang Seng surged 16% in the five days through Monday, its biggest rally in more than two years, and China’s CSI 300 Index staged its best daily jump since 2008 to close in a bull market. The Hong Kong stocks gauge and volatility index both climbed again on Wednesday after a holiday on Tuesday. China’s market stayed closed for the holiday. Also read: With China’s stimulus spree, the stars may be finally aligning for market bulls. The nation announced a slew of measures to boost its economy — from interest rate cuts to lower bank reserve requirements, billions of dollars to support equities and relaxed rules for homebuyers. The stocks frenzy percolated through the options market, where investors chasing the rally the price of near-term contracts. “The Chinese authorities are doing everything that they said they wouldn’t do,” said , chief executive officer at Global CIO Office in Singapore. “The helicopter money and the support to the real estate sector reverse their previous plans of fiscal discipline and real estate sector reset. It’s probably best for the moment not to vote against further gains in the Chinese equity market.”After the Hang Seng and HSI Volatility Index both fell on Sept. 23, the two gauges climbed in unison for the five days through Monday, both ending at highs. They hadn’t moved together for so long since November 2022, shortly after the Hang Seng hit a 13-year low. The stocks gauge then rallied through an almost 11-month high in January 2023. Volatility indexes — like the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, in the US — are often viewed as fear gauges because they tend to rise with growing hedging demand when stocks slump. If both the equity and swings indexes move together, it can be a warning sign. But it’s a different story in Asian markets, according to , head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas.“Investors tend to chase upside exposure via call options buying, resulting in the ‘spot up, vol up’ phenomenon,” Lui said. “The jump in volatility tends to be amplified if the overall market sentiment is low or depressed as it is the case in the HK/China market this time.” The Hang Seng and its volatility measure are heading for a record correlation this year, moving in unison on 49% of the days. In the US, the S&P 500 Index and VIX have had similar gyrations 21% of the time historically. UBS Group AG estimates the Hang Seng has more room for gains. The Swiss bank increased its year-end target to 22,100, 4.6% above the Monday close. Global funds that had reduced their China exposure are poised to come back to the market, according to Value Partners. “There should be a significant amount of money that needs to be allocated to stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China,” said , the firm’s deputy chief investment officer for equities. “We anticipate that the China equity market could experience a mid to long-term rally.”
