在仅仅一周的时间里，中国政府为提振经济所付出的努力取得了关键性的成果——使全国关注点转向了习近平主席。以往，美联储一直是市场情绪与预测的核心力量，但现在情况发生了变化。这是一个重大的转变。
若要让这一成就持续下去，北京需要不仅仅落实已经宣布的措施，包括坚决的货币政策放宽、财政政策的扩大、支持购房者的全新举措、向金融机构注入资本以及建立稳定市场的基金等。更重要的是，需要明确并实际可执行的目标来支撑这种乐观情绪，比如实现经济的具体增长目标和这些成功的持久性如何。
当前，确实存在着大量的热情与期待。不仅中国的股市显著上涨，所有与中国市场相关的商品和服务价格也随之上升，如铁矿石、菲律宾比索等。一种“除中国之外皆不关注”的消极言论已经被改变为“全然投资于中国”，Gavekal研究院的研究员Louis-Vincent Gave在其周二的报告中如此写道。
北京方面的行动似乎已着手进行，并被赞誉为与2012年欧债危机时期，欧洲央行前任总裁Mario Draghi所说的那句著名的”我们能够做到”类似。那时，Draghi向外界保证欧元区，尽管面临多场债务危机的冲击，仍将存活下来（当然，“我相信这将足够”是其后一句被广泛引用的话）。相比当时的挑战，Draghi的任务非常明确、且具有高度目标性。欧元依然活力满满，并且有越来越多国家使用这一货币。
中国政府现在是否也有一个同样清晰并高尚的目标呢？9月24日首次提出的政策，旨在确保约5%的增长率，这在一定程度上反映了中国面临的任务。这个增长目标虽有所挑战但也不至于危急到无法实现的境地。相比之下，Draghi面临的挑战更具高度与宏伟性——欧元象征着欧洲国家半个世纪以来日益深入的经济一体化。
那么，中国的明确且崇高的目标是什么？若当前的目标仅为防止房地产市场持续下滑，则是否意味着一个月、一年甚至永久呢？同时，这如何被度量并评估成功与否？
在经历了过去一段时间内的不确定性后，“恢复中国”成为人们关注的焦点。但是，这种激增式的增长难以重现。中国人民银行行长潘功胜并未像Draghi那样明确承诺其政策举措是足够的。这样的谨慎是非常明智的。尽管当时的欧元区仍然面临诸多挑战，在2012年；但当前已知的是中国政府对于改善其国内经济状况显示出足够重视，并准备了全面的应对策略。
未来，中国仍需努力完成多项任务与目标，同时要对部分概念进行深化与明确化。尽管新的举措充满积极意义，但这也将伴随着一段艰辛之路。只有持续努力和具体的成果，才能让人们对中国经济复苏的信心进一步提升。
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新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China's Stimulus Is Good, But Beijing Still Faces a Hard Slog
新闻日期：2024-10-02
原文摘要：
In little more than a week, China's efforts to crank up its economy have achieved something important: President Xi Jinping changed the conversation about global prospects. The Federal Reserve, usually the principal force driving market sentiment and forecasting, has company. That's a big shift. For Beijing's stardom to last, it needs to not only deliver what's been flagged: forceful monetary easing, fiscal expansion, new measures to help homebuyers, capital injections into lenders, and the creation of a market-stabilization fund. Officials also now need to offer some meaty goals that justify the euphoria. What does a win look like, and would such a victory be temporary or have staying power?There's certainly plenty of excitement. Not only did Chinese stocks surge, but everything linked to the country, from iron ore to the Philippine peso, was propelled higher. An “anything but China” mantra has been supplanted by “all-in, buy China,” Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research wrote in a note on Tuesday. Beijing appears to have into action. The pivot has been likened to “,” the phrase immortalized by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in 2012. He that the euro zone, rocked by a series of debt fiascos, would survive. (Few people cite the words that followed: “Believe me, it will be enough.”) Draghi's task was clear — and quantifiable. The euro is still very much alive; more nations use it than ever. Draghi's challenge had the benefit of being lofty. The euro symbolized a half-century of ever-deeper integration. Does China have such a defined and noble objective? When the first steps were rolled out on Sept. 24 , they were interpreted as an attempt to secure Xi’s of around 5%. That clip was in some jeopardy, but a dramatic undershoot was unlikely. These stakes seem small compared with the task that confronted Draghi, or for that matter, US policymakers in late 2008 in the depths of the global financial tumult.They were challenges born of emergency. China's performance has been underwhelming, but it’s a stretch to call it a crisis.Juicing the economy in a meaningful way can have many worthy outcomes. The Chinese wrapped up last week by pledging action to make the real estate market “stop declining.” Did the highest decision-making body mean for a month, for a year, or forever? And how will that be measured? We may have to settle for recognizing success if, and when, we see it. The specter of has followed China for a while, so lifting overall demand can't hurt on that score. But without an inflation target, it's hard to exactly know the destination. Beijing hasn't declared a 2% goal like the Fed or ECB, but a former governor of the People's Bank of China has spoken of the of such a pace.Also important to remember is that targets can be changed. Boosting gross domestic product by around 5% in 2024 doesn’t guarantee future success. When that number was unveiled earlier this year, it was described as . When a similar task was set 12 months earlier, it was criticized as too . The reality is that China was in a long-term slowdown well before the pandemic, a trend that will continue. The bigger an economy gets, the harder it is to keep growing at anything like the pace China did in the 1990s and during the first decades of this century. Part of the excitement the past few days is for a China that is somehow back. But that type of turbo-charged expansion won’t return. PBOC chief Pan Gongsheng hasn't assured, as Draghi did, that his steps will be enough. That's wise. The euro region still had some difficult times ahead of it in 2012. We now know that China cares enough about what ails its economy to mount a policy offensive. There's still a lot of work to be done — and some concepts to be solidified. As positive as the new initiatives are, China faces a slog. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
