伊朗的石油基础设施已成为中东紧张局势升级的核心，但以色列可能对伊朗能源设施发起的打击，也将直接影响到中国。
美国总统拜登在周四表示，美国正在与以色列就其可能对伊朗广阔的石油部门进行攻击的可能性进行讨论。
这番言论已经在全球市场引发了油价急剧上升。尽管大多数国家因对德黑兰实施国际制裁而避开了伊朗的石油供应，但中国的采购情况却是个例外。中国占用了伊朗90%以上的石油出口量。
值得注意的是，能源对于中国至关重要，中国从世界各地进口大约三分之二的原油。如果失去来自伊朗的供应，中国将不得不在更广泛的全球市场上寻求更多的能源需求满足。
对于伊朗来说，向中国出口石油是其收入的一个重要来源。伊朗每月向中国的销售约20亿美元的石油收益，这至少占到伊朗经济总产出的5%，为政府提供了资金，并提供了用于自身进口的资金来源。
伊朗大约有40%的原油产量出口，剩下的部分则满足国内需求。在未被中国购买的伊朗石油中，大部分作为经济援助或贸易补偿被输送到叙利亚和委内瑞拉这两个几乎破产的盟友手中。这两个国家因缺乏资金支付燃料而面临困境。
伊朗的石油便宜且比国际油价更低，在当前的制裁环境下买家有限。其中的俄罗斯、印度和一些发展中国家在尽管俄罗斯对乌克兰发动军事行动后，仍继续购买俄罗斯石油的情况下，几乎没有其他国家愿意购买伊朗石油。但对于维持中国的经济运行来说，这依然是一个关键需求来源。
据研究预测，大约有15%来自伊朗的原油被中国进口。奥地利维也纳专业追踪伊朗石油运输情况的Kpler公司高级精炼和石油产品分析师Andon Pavlov估计。其中俄罗斯是中国最大的单一原油供应商，但中国还从伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和安哥拉等国采购大量原油。
在石油输出国组织成员国（以沙特阿拉伯为首的卡特尔）每日总产量不足全产能五百万桶的情况下，如果中国无法购买通常的伊朗石油量-约每天一百万到150万桶-其他石油出口国，如伊朗的邻国，可能乐于增加供应给中国。
在提供持续的原油供应中断情况下，中国对伊朗经济的影响将是有限的。如果其他国家增加了供应，则油专家预测这样的情况对中国影响微乎其微。
“任何伊朗石油出口的中断很可能迅速被从其他供应来源中获取更多的增加量所取代。”新加坡国立大学能源专家Roger Fouquet说道。
过去几年，中国政府已逐步扩大了自身的原油储备。随着房地产市场的崩溃和建筑行业的放缓，许多原从事建筑业的工人都转向生产储油罐的工作。对于中国来说，石油储量是一个重要的缓冲。
分析师们长期以来猜测，这些增加的储备可能在应对可能与台湾发生冲突的情形下进行准备，这种情况可能导致整个大陆对中国海运进口的所有中断。但当前估计显示中国的库存相当于超过三个月总进口量和两年从伊朗进口量，因此在伊朗供应中断的情况下能提供一定程度的安全保障。
如果仅是短期的三十天危机，中国很可能轻松度过，就像一个缓冲区一样。”新加坡的期货分析师Alex Turnbull解释道。
专家们认为对于中国来说，并非以色列可能对伊朗石油设施发起打击本身会带来威胁，而是伊朗对此作出的反应才是真正的关键所在。全球超过20%的原油以及更大量的来自中国的进口油都经过霍尔木兹海峡，这一海峡连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海，是全球石油运输的主要航道。
大多数由石油输出国组织（OPEC）控制、总产能高达五百万桶的日余量位于伊朗海岸以外的海域出口点。如果以色列能够封锁伊朗的原油出口能力，伊朗的区域对手可以通过增加向中国的石油出口来获利。但反过来，如果伊朗使用导弹阻止霍尔木兹海峡的油轮通行，则可以遏制这些计划。
沙特阿拉伯已经尝试通过红海绕过霍尔木兹海峡，部分生产流程不再依赖于此通道。然而，由于受到来自受伊朗支持的也门胡塞叛军袭击的影响，这条航线目前也十分危险。
从中国角度看，“重点不是打击对原油的影响”，美国休斯敦贝克政策研究所（Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy）的中国能源研究专家Gabriel Collins说道。“而是伊朗对此作出的回应。”
澳大利亚经纪公司Pepperstone伦敦办公室的能源分析师Michael Brown补充道：“这才是全球层面所担忧的关键点。”
新闻来源：www.nytimes.com
原文地址：How an Israeli Strike on Iran’s Oil Sector Would Impact China
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
Iran’s oil infrastructure has been pushed to the center of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, but an Israeli strike on Iran’s energy facilities would also affect China directly. On Thursday, President Biden said the United States was “in discussion” about the possibility that Israel might strike Iran’s vast oil sector. His comments have already sent oil prices sharply higher in global markets, even though most countries shun Iran’s oil because of international sanctions on Tehran. China is the exception. It buys more than 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. China relies on imports from around the world for almost three-quarters of its oil consumption. The loss of supply from Iran would have China turning to global markets for even more of its energy needs. For Iran, exports to China are a vital source of funds. The country’s roughly $2 billion a month in oil sales to China represent at least 5 percent of Iran’s entire economic output. They bankroll the Iranian government and provide the cash that Iran needs to pay for its own imports. Iran exports nearly half of its oil production and uses the rest for its own domestic needs. The sliver of Iran’s oil exports that China does not purchase is shipped mainly as economic assistance or barter to two nearly bankrupt allies, Syria and Venezuela, that have little money to pay for fuel. Oil from Iran is cheap, and sold at sizable discounts to world prices because sanctions have left so few buyers. Oil from Iran sells for even less than oil from Russia. While China, India and some developing countries continue to buy Russian oil despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, practically no one except China is willing to purchase Iranian oil. China needs to buy a lot of energy to keep its economy going. It is the world’s biggest oil importer and the second-largest oil consumer behind the United States. Yet China has done much to limit its overall reliance on oil. While oil accounts for 40 percent of energy used in the United States, it is only about 20 percent of China’s overall energy supply, said Gabriel Collins, a China energy researcher at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. Slightly more than half the cars sold in China now are battery electric or plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid cars. China generates the energy to power those cars mainly by burning coal — China is the world’s dominant producer and consumer of coal — and with solar panels and wind turbines. Much of China’s oil imports is used for the country’s chemical industry, which is the world’s largest, or to refine the diesel that powers trucks. An estimated 15 percent of China’s oil imports comes from Iran, according to Andon Pavlov, senior refining and oil products analyst at Kpler, a firm in Vienna that specializes in tracking Iran’s oil shipments. Russia is China’s single largest supplier of oil, but China also buys a lot from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Angola. Members of the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries produce as much as five million barrels per day of oil less than their full capacity. The group, a cartel of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, churns out less than it could, so as to keep prices fairly high. If China were unable to buy its usual amount from Iran — about one million to 1.5 million barrels per day — it might find Iran’s neighbors happy to supply it instead. As a result, the damage to China’s economy from even a long-term interruption of oil from Iran would be minimal, provided that other countries stepped up their shipments, oil experts said. “Any interruptions to Iranian oil exports would probably be quickly replaced with increases in China’s other sources of supply,” said Roger Fouquet, an energy specialist at the National University of Singapore. China has been expanding its oil reserves over the past several years. As home building has slowed with the country’s housing market crash, many construction workers have been redeployed to making oil storage tanks. Analysts have long guessed that China is swiftly increasing reserves in preparation for a possible conflict with Taiwan, which could result in a disruption of all of mainland China’s seaborne imports. But China’s reserves, now estimated to equal more than three months of the country’s entire oil imports and two years of China’s imports from Iran, would provide a cushion in case of an interruption of Iran’s supplies. “If it’s 30 days of madness, China would glide over that like it’s a speed bump,” said Alex Turnbull, a commodities analyst in Singapore. The big question for China is not whether Israel might strike at Iran’s oil infrastructure, but how Iran would respond, according to experts. At least 20 percent of the world’s oil, and an even larger share of China’s oil imports, travels on ships past Iran’s shores through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Most of OPEC’s five million barrels a day of excess capacity lies in oil fields that need to export through the Strait of Hormuz. If Israel were to disable Iran’s ability to export oil, Iran’s rivals in the region could cash in by stepping up their exports to China. But Iran could stop them by using missiles to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has tried to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for part of its production by building pipelines to the Red Sea instead. But that waterway is now also dangerous because of attacks from Yemen by Houthi rebels backed by Iran. For China, “it’s not so much what the impact of the strike is,” Mr. Collins said, “but what is the impact of Iran’s response?” Michael Brown, a commodities specialist in the London office of Pepperstone, an Australian brokerage, added: “That’s the big concern from a global perspective.”
