基于研究院（Foundation for Defense of Democracies）的一份报告揭露了潜在的情境——北京可能采取非军事手段对抗台湾，其中包括经济与网络战争。该报告强调，中国或许会运用金融和科技工具来施加压力，并且通过影响基础设施、开展信息战等方法实现目标，而无需直接动用军事力量。这一看似被忽视的场景对美国构成了挑战，特别是考虑到台湾是美国最大的盟友之一。
该研究报告指出，在全球化时代下，经济关系更加紧密，这为中国的强制性目标提供了一个利用平台，特别是在技术的持续创新推动了更多数字连接的情况下。这些技术进步不仅扩展了中国在实施强制手段时的选择范围，例如通过打击关键基础设施或发动网络攻击来实现其目的。
报告提醒，台湾与大陆之间的紧张关系已经持续多年，并且自2016年起北京开始增加对台湾的政治和军事压力，这一态势促使美国加强了对台政策的介入。美国根据法律义务为台湾提供足够的防御装备以保障自身安全。美国一直致力于维护台湾海峡地区的和平稳定，并支持基于规则的世界秩序，与包括台湾在内的民主国家站在一起。
尽管中国方面坚持要求美国退出台湾事务，称其为纯内政问题，但这份报告进一步凸显了非军事策略在对台施压中扮演的角色。美国政府目前尚未制定出针对非军事手段的应对计划，这给予北京一定的灵活性，在不直接触发美国军事干预的情况下通过经济战、断绝贸易、实施网络攻击等方式削弱台湾。
台湾方面的官员对此未立即发表评论。而根据估计约有100万台湾人在大陆工作和生活，这种紧密的经济联系使得非军事威胁变得更加严重。这份报告呼吁台湾需要采取多元化能源进口策略、调整产业布局、拓展新市场以及加强与盟友的合作等方式来提升自身的抵抗能力。
此外，研究人员还指出，北京已经加大力度采用非军事手段对台湾施压，并预期这一趋势在未来几个月乃至几年内将进一步增强。针对这种情况，美国和台湾应当携手与其他盟友共同提升整体的抗压韧性，以应对中国可能利用经济相互依赖进行武器化的战略。
华盛顿全球台湾研究院（Global Taiwan Institute）的执行董事拉塞尔·萧（Russell Hsiao）指出，北京在近期内已经在增加对台湾的非军事施压力度，并且这种做法预期将持续升温。他表示，“美国和台湾应携手与其伙伴加强合作，以增强我们共同抵抗中国可能利用经济依存关系进行武器化的策略能力。”
此报告和相关分析强调了应对非军事威胁的战略准备对于维持地区稳定和促进国际合作的重要性，凸显了当前国际形势下确保台湾安全的挑战性。
新闻来源：www.abcnews.go.com
原文地址：China could wage economic war on Taiwan to force surrender, report says
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
U.S. military officials and analysts have for years warned of possible armed attacks or blockades by China on Taiwan, but a report released Friday has raised a red flag about possible non-military tactics that could be used effectively against the self-governed island. Beijing could wage an economic and cyber war to force a surrender from Taiwan without direct use of military power, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, said in the report. Such a likely but overlooked scenario, it said, poses a challenge for the U.S., the island's biggest ally, and suggested Washington make preparations for how best to respond. FDD researchers teamed up with banking and finance experts in Taiwan over two days earlier this year to simulate likely non-military moves by Beijing, such as disinformation campaigns and cyber attacks on infrastructure. The exercise was the first of its kind and seeks to fill an analytical gap, FDD said. “Modern globalization has created more economic connections that China can exploit to achieve coercive aims," the report said. “Technological innovation created even more digital connections, offering more possibilities for coercion, including through the targeting of critical infrastructure.” Beijing has vowed to take Taiwan, by force if necessary, although Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to make “utmost efforts” to do so peacefully. Taiwan split from the mainland in 1949 during a civil war when the defeated nationalist government fled to the island. Tensions have flared in the Taiwan Strait since 2016 when Beijing began to increase diplomatic and military pressure on the island, prompting the U.S. to step up its support. Washington, which is obligated under U.S. law to provide Taipei with sufficient military hardware for its defense, has argued that it is in the U.S. interest to keep peace in the strait and to stand with democracies such as Taiwan to maintain the rules-based world order. Beijing has demanded the U.S. stay out of Taiwan, arguing it is a purely domestic affair. President Joe Biden has indicated he would send troops to defend Taiwan in case of an armed attack from China, but the U.S. government has yet to formulate a plan to respond to non-military tactics, giving Beijing flexibility in working to undermine Taiwan without triggering an outright response from Washington that a military invasion would, the FDD researchers said. Taiwan’s foreign and defense ministries had no immediate comment on the report. With an estimated 1 million Taiwanese living and working in China, economic ties have grown ever closer. That has made the possibility of economic coercion, boycotts and military blockades an even bigger threat. In the simulation exercises, the experts from the U.S. and Taiwan studied possible moves by Beijing such as conducting psychological wars to erode public trust, banning imports of Taiwanese products or raising tariffs on them, short-selling Taiwanese stocks, freezing bank transfers across the strait, cutting fiber optic cables, and targeting energy imports and storage. Recommendations include that Taiwan diversify its energy imports, relocate businesses away from the mainland, develop new markets, and build alliances and partnerships. The report suggested that the United States develop a playbook of options to counter China and improve coordination with allies. The Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance, which worked with FDD on the simulation exercises, has argued that Taiwan must strengthen its financial resilience. “China could destabilize Taiwan’s financial system to incite social unrest as a precursor to invasion,” the report said. Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Washington-based Global Taiwan Institute, said Beijing has already been ramping up non-military measures against Taiwan and that such efforts are expected to intensify in the coming months and years. “It behooves the United States and Taiwan to work with allies and like-minded partners to strengthen our collective resilience to China’s weaponization of economic interdependence,” Hsiao said. ___ AP writers Fatima Hussein in Washington and Christopher Bodeen in Taipei contributed to this report.
