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这周，金秋节（Golden Week）迎来了它的特别意义：中国经济的重要指标，也是全球第二大经济体消费者支出的关键风向标。特别是在后疫情时代背景下，人们希望看到Xi Jinping主席推出的刺激措施能否重新提振国内消费市场。从放松房地产政策的瞬间开始，购房者迅速涌现，甚至连深夜也不曾停歇。旅游预订数据显示，更多中国旅客正前往欧洲及亚洲地区如日本和马来西亚等目的地，国内旅游业也呈现出繁荣景象。
国家媒体对假期期间的经济活动进行了大力报道：每日更新的新闻应用上，中央电视台（CCTV）与新华社会不断提及诸如全国电影院票房、铁路运输与自驾游量等数据，这些数据中常伴随着“破纪录”、“创高峰”的字样。不过，金秋节消费情况的完整评估可能要到下周才能得出。
为了维持这种乐观情绪，北京需要实施并进一步加强宣布的刺激措施。根据Ray Dalio的说法，在经济转机上“尽全力”是必要的策略。这可能会导致财政支出激增，如果政策得以释放，“火箭弹式”的大规模刺激将不可避免。由24名精英组成的政治局指导组已敦促各级政府更有效地使用超长期特别国债和地方特债，以推动投资而不给出具体数额，此举引发了关于财政措施力度的猜测。
Jia Kang，财政部下属研究机构前负责人，表示中国可以在不给经济带来过多负担的前提下发行多达10万亿元人民币（约1.4万亿美元）的特殊债务。这是政府今年原计划出售超长期国债规模的数倍之多，并且比2008年4万亿元刺激资金的增加量更高，考虑到中国的国内生产总值在2023年末增长了四倍。
当港股市场经历了自9月初以来超过30%的剧烈上涨后，最近一个交易日迎来了反弹。市场的暂时波动反映了投资者对消费潜力的重新评估与信心。金秋节期间出现的这一波利好效应令人瞩目，尽管有人怀疑它是否持续可靠以及背后原因。
在电子期刊特别关注的新闻部分：中国政府坚决推动关键领域如电动汽车半导体和先进硬件实现自主生产，即便这可能意味着牺牲获得最佳芯片的机会以支持国内企业发展。为促进人工智能（AI）领域的本土创新，北京正在鼓励科技公司购买更多来自中国的AI芯片，而不是国际大厂如NVIDIA的产品。此举旨在扶持华为、寒武纪等本地企业，并避免与美国的紧张关系升级。
在金秋节前，中国政府的一系列刺激措施让股市变得炙手可热。投资者们通过各种应用渠道提交了海量申请以开通交易账户。社交平台上出现了关于股票上涨如何提振个人假期消费的各种故事。有朋友甚至在大涨后通过机场的航班升舱体验了“财富效应”。
然而，在金秋节期间，中国经济仍面临房地产危机等挑战。今年早些时候的一轮市场暴跌导致投资者转向美国大使馆社交媒体账号寻求安慰，并自我嘲讽为“股灾受害者”。现在股市的反弹虽让人振奋但也有着一丝怀疑——人们深知历史循环，对未来的不确定性心存戒备。
中国正推动创新以实现技术领域的领先地位和未来发展。Xi Jinping在六月的一次科技会议上强调了这一点，“一些核心技术和顶尖人才仍然被他国所控制”，“我们需要加强创新，掌握技术竞赛与未来发展的主动权。”
本期刊将特别关注当前热门话题：随着政策的强力支持，中国股市从备受冷落转变为炙手可热只在数日内。高涨的热情使券商申请系统崩溃，并促使大量投资者提交开户请求以捕捉这一利好机遇。社交平台上分享了炒股上涨如何影响假期消费的故事，其中不乏关于升级机场航班体验的真实案例。
中国的股市经历了一段艰难期，受到持续的房地产危机与经济挑战的影响。今年初的市场动荡引发了更多投资者转向美国大使馆寻求心理慰藉，并将自己称为“股灾受害者”。零售投资者开始自嘲为“股友”来表达对回报不佳的失望情绪。
目前的情绪可以理解，在政策支持和股市回弹的背景下，中国投资者在期待中的“财富效应”中找到了新的信心。但同时，也伴随着历史经验带来的怀疑与谨慎。
请注意：上述翻译内容基于原文，并未增加任何解释或说明信息。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Stakes Are High for China’s Golden Week After Flurry of Stimulus
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
Welcome to Next China. Each week, we take you inside the economic giant that is China. To subscribe to this newsletter directly, click . This week, we explore China’s Golden Week and its special importance, why Beijing is advising companies to avoid Nvidia, and look at what's going viral behind the Great Firewall.Hi, this is Yanping Li in Singapore. This Golden Week holiday in China is indeed quite golden. Domestic investors are likely celebrating after stimulus sent markets . Mainland stocks closed out the final trading day in a bull market.The holiday season typically sees a surge in Chinese travelers, making it a key indicator of consumer spending in the world’s second-biggest economy. This has taken on extra significance this year, with economists and traders looking to see if President Xi Jinping’s latest can reinvigorate the country’s downcast consumers. There are some very early signs of recovery. As soon as cities relaxed homebuying rules, people quickly to showrooms — even in the middle of the night. Travel booking data shows more Chinese are to Europe and Asian destinations like Japan and Malaysia compared to last year and even before the Covid-19 pandemic. Domestic travel is also booming, with the national rail network seeing a record number of passenger trips on the first day of the holiday. State media are hyping up the holiday spending data. Almost daily, headlines with words like “” or “exceed” would pop up on news apps from China Central Television and Xinhua News Agency, highlighting figures such as nationwide cinema ticket sales, railway traffic, and road trips.We won’t have a complete view of China’s holiday spending until next week at least. For the current optimism to last, Beijing will need to follow through on the stimulus measures it has announced — and possibly even more. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said policymakers must do “” to bring about a turnaround.That would likely require major fiscal firepower — something that could push stimulus into “bazooka” territory, if unleashed. The elite 24-man Politburo has urged officials to issue and better utilize ultra-long special sovereign bonds and local special notes to drive investment without giving specifics, fueling speculation on the strength of the fiscal measures. Jia Kang, a former head of a research institute affiliated with the Ministry of Finance, said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special debt.That would be many times the 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long special sovereign bonds the government planned to sell this year. But he said that would be a proportional increase from the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2008, given China’s gross domestic product had quadrupled in nominal terms by the end of 2023.As a historic rally in Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks on Thursday, with traders taking a moment to reflect after a more than 30% surge since early September, it remains to be seen whether the dip is just a brief setback.Much is at stake this Golden Week. If the conditions leading into the holiday were so favorable and yet failed to boost consumer spending, it would raise the question what could? What We’re Reading, Listening to and Watching:China is determined to become self-sufficient in key areas like electric vehicle semiconductors and advanced hardware, even if it means sacrificing access to the best chips to support its local companies.Beijing is encouraging Chinese tech companies to buy more locally produced AI chips instead of those from Nvidia, which are considered the best for training algorithms. This move aims to strengthen domestic alternatives like Huawei and Cambricon Technologies, Bloomberg News .The policy serves as guidance rather than an outright ban as Beijing seeks to avoid escalating tensions with the US and hurting its own AI tech development. Broadly, the move aligns with China’s efforts to quickly boost domestic chip production and reduce reliance on foreign technology, especially amid a growing US-led campaign to restrict its access to the most sophisticated semiconductors and equipment. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the value of semiconductor production by Chinese companies will reach 40% of the country’s chip demand by 2030, up from 16% in 2022, though most of the capacity expansion will be focused on mature nodes due to technology constraints. Huawei’s release of Mate 60 Pro 5G handset last year was a major breakthrough in China’s self-sufficiency drive. The phone’s development, featuring an advanced locally-made processor with help from Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., demonstrated that Chinese companies can continue to despite growing restrictions. Additionally, 50% of the critical components in the Mate 60 Pro handset came from Chinese suppliers, an increase from less than 40% for the Mate 30 Pro in 2019, to research firm Yole Group.Earlier this year, Chinese officials local EV makers to sharply increase their purchases from domestic auto chipmakers.This has implications for other countries: the European Union has that its chipmakers, including NXP Semiconductors NV, may lose market share in China. And the Biden administration is so concerned about potential oversupply from China’s chip capacity expansion that it has 50% tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports. However, this pushback will only strengthen China’s resolve to keep replacing foreign technology imports.Xi this at a national science conference in June, saying some core technologies are still controlled by others and that China faces a shortage of top scientific and technological talent.“We need to ramp up our innovation and claim the high ground in technological competition and future development,’’ the Chinese leader said. A weekly look at an item that’s been big water cooler news in China.After a barrage of stimulus announcements, Chinese stocks have gone from unloved to a fan favorite in a span of a few days. The interest was so that broker applications were overwhelmed and requests for opening trading accounts surged. This frenzy even sparked memes featuring the unlikeliest of characters, such as a man on crutches, a food delivery driver and a monk, at brokerages opening accounts.With the policy support coming just before the holiday, people on social media shared stories about how the rally emboldened them to splurge on their trips. One friend even texted the day after the rally to say he was upgrading his flight at the airport — exactly the wealth effect that Beijing is aiming for.It’s been long overdue. Chinese stocks have been struggling as the economy grapples with a persistent real estate crisis and . Earlier this year, a market meltdown prompted many to flock to the US embassy social media account to their losses. Retail investors even began calling themselves “” to express their disappointment with the poor returns.So the current enthusiasm is understandable, even though there’s also a sense of skepticism. After all, Chinese investors have been several times before."As an old chive who's been watching A shares for over twenty years, the current festive mood feels like déjà vu," a user wrote on Weibo, striking a pessimistic tone and hinting at a potential crash following the rally.Others have noted that the lack of attractive investment options is fueling this euphoria.“There haven’t been many good investment options since the real estate collapse,” one user wrote. “So when something becomes investable, people will rush in, just like they did with bonds and stocks.”
