欧洲联盟近日对中国实行了其最强力经济手段之一——对电动汽车征收关税，这一行动旨在加剧与中国之间的摩擦风险，并有可能反噬国内企业和消费者。周五，欧盟已就高达45%的高额税率达成一致意见，此举措是为了回应中国为汽车制造商提供不公平补贴的观点。尽管如此，这一系列动作正试图符合世界贸易组织的规定。
法国总统马克龙警告称，欧洲经济体系“需要重新调整”，并提及若不考虑美国与中国更大程度上的国内投资与市场保护措施的影响，欧盟可能面临生存威胁。欧盟领导人计划于下月公布新的竞争力发展蓝图。欧方某高级分析师指出，周五的关税决议标志着欧盟与中国的双边关系的一个关键节点。该人士认为，若有效执行这些关税政策，则能强化欧盟自身，给予其动力继续应对市场失衡、重要依赖性和新兴安全挑战。
前欧洲央行行长德拉吉在上月发布的一项备受关注的报告中表达了类似的忧虑，并将欧盟面临的“缓慢衰败”现象归咎于未能加大对经济转型的投资，以更好地对抗北京和华盛顿的竞争压力。他指出，过去二十年来，欧盟经济增长持续慢于美国的主要原因在于生产力进展较小。
沃尔夫斯堡、梅赛德斯-奔驰集团与斯塔路茨尼等欧洲汽车制造商在中国市场的影响力正在减弱，这影响了它们在该地区的业务表现；宝马因一次昂贵的召回事件受到冲击，并在美国市场遭遇销量不佳的问题。这些因素导致过去一个月各大制造商纷纷发出盈利预警。
面对最近有关盈利预测的负面报道后，欧洲汽车制造商股价出现下滑，周五的关税决议使情况有所缓和，但据RBC Europe分析师特姆·纳雷扬所说，这主要反映了市场已经预见了这一结果，STOXX 600汽车与零部件指数目前较年初下跌逾10%，尽管费拉里（NV）公司的股价表现良好。
欧洲长期以来试图解决与中国的长期摩擦问题，包括中国对工业补贴的使用及其国内市场准入限制，但在目睹中国企业数字化和清洁技术领域的进步——这些企业凭借关键材料控制而迅速发展后，欧盟的态度逐渐变得强硬。作为世界最大贸易集团，欧盟主要受益于多边主义，其GDP的一半依赖国际贸易，但当前的国际环境充满了美国与中国的竞争以及争夺原材料以加速经济增长的需求，迫使欧盟重新思考其策略。
欧洲对电动汽车征收关税旨在回应当前的政治重点需求，但它也带来了经济风险。在通胀冲击后的时代背景下，全球贸易战争爆发的可能性增加了潜在消费者物价上涨的压力。即将于10月17日举行的ECB会议预计将进行第三次降息，然而鉴于此一背景环境可能导致决策者产生犹豫。
世界银行在8月份警告称，中央银行之间的“价格战”尚未完全结束；保护主义措施如关税会导致生产成本和运输费用上升，并且如果贸易壁垒持续存在，则最终可能促使生产商将这些成本转嫁给消费者。德国经济部长周五通过Instagram发布声明表示：“我们希望实现公平的市场环境而非贸易战。这就是为什么现在我们需要在对反补贴税的问题上寻求谈判解决方案。”
欧洲作为一个整体是强大的，如果分裂开来，就成为他人操纵的棋子。如果欧盟未能团结一致应对中国咄咄逼人的工业战争，则这将不仅局限于汽车行业；其它领域也可能遭受类似的冲击。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：EU Tests Its Mettle to Take On China With New EV Tariff Fight
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
The European Union unleashed one of its most powerful economic tools on China, imposing tariffs on electric vehicles in a move that increases the risk of retaliatory measures and backfiring on domestic consumers and companies.The EU voted on Friday to as high as 45%, arguing that Beijing provides unfair subsidies to its carmakers. While the bloc is aligning with the US’s more aggressive approach to taking on Chinese trade practices, the latest move intends to comply with World Trade Organization rules.French President warned this week that Europe’s economic model “needs to be reset,” and failure to account for the US and China’s greater domestic investment and market protections could be an existential threat for the EU. The bloc’s leaders are expected to unveil a new competitiveness roadmap next month., a director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the vote “marks a pivotal moment for the future of EU-China relations.” She said successful implementation of the tariffs would strengthen the EU, giving it “momentum to continue addressing market distortions, critical dependencies, and emerging security challenges across various industries.”Former European Central Bank President shared similar concerns as Macron last month when delivering a much-anticipated report on Europe’s competitiveness. He said that the EU would face a “slow agony” if the bloc didn’t invest in its economic transformation to better contend with competition posed by Beijing and Washington. EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, driven by smaller advances in productivity, Draghi said. And the consequences of the slow response to the challenge posed by China’s aggressive industrial plans, with billions of dollars invested in subsidies, are already felt in some of the key industries.While Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG are struggling with waning relevance in China, BMW AG has been tripped up by an expensive recall, and Stellantis NV is getting hit by poor sales in the US. All of them have issued profit warnings in the past month, with VW considering closing plants in its home market Germany for the first time.After European carmaker shares took a beating in the past weeks following the profit warnings, they recovered a bit on Friday’s tariff vote. The Stoxx 600 autos and parts index rose, but that’s because the news was already priced in, said Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Europe. The index is still down more than 10% this year — despite the ever-ascending Ferrari NV in the mix.After years of failed attempts to address long-standing bilateral irritants, including China’s industrial subsidies or the restricted access to its vast market, the EU has gradually hardened its stance as it witnessed the steadfast progress of Chinese firms in the digital and clean tech sectors, fueled by their control of critical materials.As the world’s largest trading bloc, Europe is the main beneficiary of multilateralism, with half of its GDP tied to international trade. But the hostile international environment marked by the US and China’s rivalry and the fight to secure raw materials to accelerate economic growth is forcing the EU to rethink its approach.While EV tariffs deliver on Europe’s current political priorities, they’re not without economic risks. Coming in the wake of a once-in-a-generation inflation shock, the prospect of potential full-blown global trade wars erupting comes with the danger of renewed consumer-price pressure.ECB policymakers are set to deliver a third interest-rate cut when they meet on Oct. 17, but the backdrop could yet stoke doubts in their resolve. Aside from the trade environment — further threatened by the possibility of retaking the White House — resurgent oil prices and a still-resilient US economy might also give officials pause for thought.The World Bank warned in August that central banks’ war over inflation isn’t won just yet. The Washington-based institution said protectionist measures like tariffs raise production and shipping costs and, if such barriers to trade persistent, they “may eventually prompt producers to pass them on to consumers.”“We want a level and fair playing field, but not a trade war. That is why we now need a negotiated solution to the issue of countervailing duties,” German Economic Minister said in a statement Friday on Instagram. “Together Europe is strong, divided it becomes a pawn of others. And if Europe does not react as one, China’s aggressive industrial war will continue in other sectors too.”
