美国军事官员与专家多年来曾预警，中国可能对台湾实施武力攻击或封锁行动，但新近发表的一份报告则提示了一种潜在的非军事策略，此种方式能有效对中国自治岛屿施压。
位于华盛顿的研究机构“基金会为民主防卫”在报告中指出，北京有可能会采取经济战和网络战等非军事手段，迫使台湾屈服，而无需直接使用武力。该报告揭示了一个往往被忽视的情景挑战着美国的安全立场——台湾的最大盟友，并建议美国做好应对此类策略的准备。
“基金会为民主防卫”的研究人员与台湾金融专家合作，在今年进行了为期两天的模拟演练，探讨了北京可能采取的非军事行动，包括虚假信息攻势、基础设施网络攻击等。这是首次开展此类活动，以填补分析空白。
报告强调：“全球化的发展创造了更多经济联系，中国能够借此实现强迫目标。”科技创新则进一步增加了数字链接，提供了更多实施胁迫的可能性，尤其是针对关键基础设施的威胁。
尽管中国政府曾承诺在必要时采取武力收复台湾，并且国家主席习近平表示会尽力推动和平统一，但1949年国共内战后，被败退国民党政府流亡至台湾的大陆势力所分裂。
自2016年起，中国对台湾的政治与军事压力增强，促使美国加强了对该地区的支持。根据美国法律，需向台湾提供足够的国防设备以确保其安全，美国认为维持台海和平以及支持如台湾等民主国家对于维护基于规则的世界秩序是符合自身利益的。
中国政府则要求美国避免介入台湾事务，并视之为内政。美国总统拜登曾表示，在中国对台湾发起武力攻击的情况下会派遣军队进行防卫，但美国至今未制定针对非军事策略的具体应对计划，这使得北京有灵活性可以利用经济压力而非立即触发来自华盛顿的全面反应，以防台湾被侵略。
截至报告发布之时，台湾外交部与国防部尚未对此作出回应。
由于约有一百万台湾人在大陆工作和生活，两岸间的经济联系不断加深，这种情况下，经济胁迫、商品禁售、军事封锁等风险变得更加严峻。在模拟演练中，美台专家分析了北京可能采取的行动，包括发动心理战削弱公众信任、禁止进口台湾产品或提高关税、做空台湾股票、冻结跨海峡银行转账、切断光纤电缆以及攻击能源进口和储存设施等。
报告建议台湾应多样化能源进口来源、将业务转移至大陆之外、开拓新市场，并构建联盟与合作伙伴关系。同时，美国也需要制定一份针对中国的应对方案，加强与盟友间的协调行动。
台湾金融与银行协会表示，此举旨在增强台湾的金融韧性。
报告指出：“中国可能通过扰乱台湾金融市场来煽动社会动荡，作为入侵前的先兆。”
台湾研究所华盛顿分院院长 Russell Hsiao 表示，北京已在加大对台湾实施非军事手段的压力，并且这种努力预计将在未来几个月乃至几年内进一步加剧。他认为美国和台湾应该携手与盟友加强合作，以共同增强对于中国武器化经济依赖的能力。
“基金会为民主防卫”的上述分析强调了国际合作在应对此类挑战方面的关键作用。
新闻来源：www.abcnews.go.com
原文地址：China could wage economic war on Taiwan to force surrender, report says
新闻日期：2024-10-04
原文摘要：
U.S. military officials and analysts have for years warned of possible armed attacks or blockades by China on Taiwan, but a report released Friday has raised a red flag about possible non-military tactics that could be used effectively against the self-governed island. Beijing could wage an economic and cyber war to force a surrender from Taiwan without direct use of military power, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, said in the report. Such a likely but overlooked scenario, it said, poses a challenge for the U.S., the island's biggest ally, and suggested Washington make preparations for how best to respond. FDD researchers teamed up with banking and finance experts in Taiwan over two days earlier this year to simulate likely non-military moves by Beijing, such as disinformation campaigns and cyber attacks on infrastructure. The exercise was the first of its kind and seeks to fill an analytical gap, FDD said. “Modern globalization has created more economic connections that China can exploit to achieve coercive aims," the report said. “Technological innovation created even more digital connections, offering more possibilities for coercion, including through the targeting of critical infrastructure.” Beijing has vowed to take Taiwan, by force if necessary, although Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to make “utmost efforts” to do so peacefully. Taiwan split from the mainland in 1949 during a civil war when the defeated nationalist government fled to the island. Tensions have flared in the Taiwan Strait since 2016 when Beijing began to increase diplomatic and military pressure on the island, prompting the U.S. to step up its support. Washington, which is obligated under U.S. law to provide Taipei with sufficient military hardware for its defense, has argued that it is in the U.S. interest to keep peace in the strait and to stand with democracies such as Taiwan to maintain the rules-based world order. Beijing has demanded the U.S. stay out of Taiwan, arguing it is a purely domestic affair. President Joe Biden has indicated he would send troops to defend Taiwan in case of an armed attack from China, but the U.S. government has yet to formulate a plan to respond to non-military tactics, giving Beijing flexibility in working to undermine Taiwan without triggering an outright response from Washington that a military invasion would, the FDD researchers said. Taiwan’s foreign and defense ministries had no immediate comment on the report. With an estimated 1 million Taiwanese living and working in China, economic ties have grown ever closer. That has made the possibility of economic coercion, boycotts and military blockades an even bigger threat. In the simulation exercises, the experts from the U.S. and Taiwan studied possible moves by Beijing such as conducting psychological wars to erode public trust, banning imports of Taiwanese products or raising tariffs on them, short-selling Taiwanese stocks, freezing bank transfers across the strait, cutting fiber optic cables, and targeting energy imports and storage. Recommendations include that Taiwan diversify its energy imports, relocate businesses away from the mainland, develop new markets, and build alliances and partnerships. The report suggested that the United States develop a playbook of options to counter China and improve coordination with allies. The Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance, which worked with FDD on the simulation exercises, has argued that Taiwan must strengthen its financial resilience. “China could destabilize Taiwan’s financial system to incite social unrest as a precursor to invasion,” the report said. Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Washington-based Global Taiwan Institute, said Beijing has already been ramping up non-military measures against Taiwan and that such efforts are expected to intensify in the coming months and years. “It behooves the United States and Taiwan to work with allies and like-minded partners to strengthen our collective resilience to China’s weaponization of economic interdependence,” Hsiao said. ___ AP writers Fatima Hussein in Washington and Christopher Bodeen in Taipei contributed to this report.
