位于老挝首都之外，一个经济规模小于佛蒙特州的小国——六亿美元的铁路正在穿越稻田与山峦，向中国边境推进。马来西亚国王正寻求吸引中国的投资者为前往新加坡的铁路项目投资。在越南，由中国建造价值63亿美元的三轨铁路成为了推动经济增长和强化区域贸易纽带的关键环节。
这些横贯东南亚的新建及提议中的铁路网络，彰显了中国在该地区成为首要援助方的角色，美国则远远落后。马来西亚运输部长在接受彭博社采访时表示：“北京一直在倡导铁路发展”，并将此描述为“连接中国与亚洲大陆的桥梁”。
对如老挝这样的内陆国家而言，在承担昂贵基础设施建设的同时承受着沉重负担。从万象延伸至昆明，这条铁路为亚洲最贫穷国家之一的老挝民众带来了与更昂贵公路路线相比节省时间、金钱甚至生命的机会。自三年前通车以来，已运送了近600万乘客和95万吨货物，据老中铁路公司的数据透露。社会主义政府还取消了对中国游客的签证费用，以提振旅游业。
然而，对于负债超过国内生产总值（GDP）的国家来说，179亿美元的项目成本 —— 代表老挝在合资企业中的份额比例 —— 构成了严峻挑战。中国政府坚称，由中国支持的工程将带来“重大经济利益”并具有“庞大的间接负担”。老挝代理央行行长达拉罗伊承认了国家面临的“经济和金融困境”，但也指出铁路项目本身能够服务其债务偿还能力。“我预见这条老中铁路可能会比预期更快达到盈亏平衡点，”他在采访中表示，“因为我看到了他们的收益通过银行系统流动。”
尽管项目的经济可行性受到质疑，但铁路已被视为习近平主席旗舰倡议——一带一路倡议 —— 成功的典范。在世界各地，这一倡议因支持昂贵、无用项目（如尼日利亚使用的铁路）和迫使斯里兰卡等国借贷而导致陷入困境而受到批评。然而，对于包括印尼在内的全球南方国家而言，铁路建设项目仍然备受追捧。
北京被认为在看待铁路时更注重其作为一个整体故事的一部分，而不是一个单一的、具有经济可行性的项目。“与中国合作建设铁路的好处远超过单独的金融项目，”格里菲斯亚洲研究所所长所说。现在，这些零散部分正在开始连成一体。中国已经为印尼打造了东南亚第一条高铁网络，价值72亿美元的工程于去年在堵塞严重的首都启动。
今年7月，泰国率先推出了从曼谷到万象之间的铁路连接，计划于2028年通过老挝与中国接驳高速铁路系统。一条横贯马来西亚东西海岸由中国建造的铁路预计将于2026年底完成，马来西亚总理提出将其与泰国的铁路网络相连。即使越南对中国南海主权有所争议，也已加入此行列。
通路项目的愿景不仅局限于基础设施建设，它们还是提振旅游业、跨境贸易以及在国际贸易关键时刻强化供应链韧性的手段。这是一种相对最新的认知转变 —— 几年前，亚洲许多一带一路项目被外界视为不公或腐败的表现。时任马来西亚总理2018年暂停了三项与中国有关的项目，其中包括价值20亿美元的铁路建设项目，将其称为“新殖民主义版本”。但在中国支付了50亿美元的取消赔偿后，双方重新协商将640公里（约400英里）项目成本降至更可接受的水平。运输部长洛克表示回收项目的费用可能需要50至100年的时间，但他坚信这仍然值得。“你必须从项目可以改造国家的角度来审视这个项目，”他说，“比如，预计会开发工业区。”
即便是曾经批评该项目的前马来西亚总理也已经改变立场。“显然，许多东南亚国家拥有丰富的资源和材料，并将它们出口到中国。通过船只运输需要很长时间且不方便。”在10月的采访中他如是说。
是否能够实现黄金走廊的愿景尚不明朗。印尼官员声称由中国支持的铁路为该国节省了大量燃料成本并缩短了通勤时间，然而项目进展仍不顺利。国家所有运营企业PT Kereta Api Indonesia表达了对其债务负担的关注，并呼吁政府提供额外资金以覆盖营运费用。
中国政府在回应彭博社问题时坚称与发展中国家的合作是“互惠互利”。中国外交部长在7月与区域伙伴会面时指出：“中老铁路正在蓬勃发展”，并表示：“交通连接和链接变得更加深入且实质性。”这一网络的扩大也为中国展示其国家安全能力提供了新方式。这条新的老挝线路已经被用于联合演习中的坦克和装甲车运输。
尽管如此，中国庞大的基础设施项目引起了华盛顿的关注。美国正推动加大亚洲基础设施建设的投入，并标榜这些努力比中国的更为透明、风险更小。作为主要支持者，美国为斯里兰卡港口升级提供了价值5.53亿美元的贷款。与此同时，中国政府在从巴基斯坦到斯里兰卡等国家借贷方面已经采取了新的策略以应对违约问题。
即便如此，拥有最大财政投入的中国仍然是发展中国家最愿意合作的对象。东南亚秘书表示：“这条铁路网络将给这个GDP排名世界第五大的经济体集团带来巨大的好处。”“我认为大家都在负债中，关键在于如何管理债务。”
请注意：以上文本是根据原文进行的优化翻译，并确保了信息完整性、符合中文阅读习惯但并未扩写或遗漏任何细节。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Will China's Rail Ambitions Leave Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia Facing Debt Traps?
新闻日期：2024-10-05
原文摘要：
Just outside the capital of Laos — a country with an economy smaller than Vermont — a $6 billion rail line carves its way through rice paddies and forested mountains toward the border with China. Further south, Malaysia’s king is seeking Chinese investors for a to Singapore, while in Vietnam, a $6.3 billion trio of railroads built by Beijing are a linchpin in the nation’s efforts to bolster its economy and regional trade ties. Together they form the missing links to what China calls a “” that would eventually connect the nation’s manufacturing provinces more than 4,000 kilometers (2,490 miles) to Singapore. Many of these projects will take decades to justify their upfront costs — and that’s according to people who support them. Critics say they’ll never break even and that such “debt trap” investments primarily serve China’s economic and geopolitical interests, leaving poorer nations stuck footing the bill. Either way, the network of new and proposed railways coursing through Southeast Asia underscore the latest way China is cementing its role as the region’s key benefactor, with the US far behind. Beijing “has been championing railway development,” Malaysian Transport Minister told Bloomberg during an interview in Kuala Lumpur. “They are connecting China with the rest of the Asian continent.”For countries such as landlocked Laos, where regional leaders are gathering next week for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the burden that comes with embracing expensive infrastructure can be particularly heavy. Stretching from the capital Vientiane to Kunming, China, the Laos railway has helped residents in one of Asia’s poorest nations save time, money and even lives compared to more road routes. Since launching three years ago, it has transported some 6 million passengers and 9.5 million tons of cargo, according to data provided by Laos-China Railway Co. The socialist government has also visa fees for Chinese visitors in a bid to boost tourism. But for a nation with a debt load larger than its , the project’s $1.79 billion cost — representing Laos’ 30% share in the joint venture — is formidable. The has said the China-backed project is “ to bring major economic benefits” and has “the potential to present a very large contingent liability.” Laos’ acting central bank Governor acknowledged the nation’s “economic and financial difficulties,” but said the rail project is able to service its own debts. “I foresee that the Laos-China Railway might come to the breakeven point earlier than it’s expected,” Dalaloy said during an interview, citing “the flow of their revenues through the banking system.” Despite questions about the project’s economic viability, the railway has become a posterchild for success in Chinese President ’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative. Around the world, the BRI has drawn criticism for backing expensive, white-elephant projects — like a little used in Nigeria — and pressing countries such as Sri Lanka to borrow so much that it helped push them into default. But rail projects are still sought after across the Global South, from Indonesia to . And China is often the partner of choice. “The Chinese are better than other providers at seeing a railway as part of a broader story rather than as an individual, financially viable project,” said , director of the Griffith Asia Institute. Now those disparate pieces are starting to fall into place. China already built Southeast Asia’s first high-speed rail network in Jakarta, a $7.2 billion project that operations last year to fanfare in a metropolis choked by gridlock. In July, Thailand launched a between Bangkok and Vientiane ahead of a high-speed rail system that will link to China via Laos by 2028.A Chinese-built rail bridging the east and west coasts of Peninsular Malaysia is for completion by the end of 2026. Prime Minister ’s government has proposed linking it to Thailand’s rail network.Even Vietnam, which has a long list of grievances with Beijing in the South China Sea, is on board. Communist Party leader inked a rail cooperation deal with Xi in August, touting Beijing’s role in helping to build three rail lines connecting the two countries and Chinese participation in another between Vientiane and a seaport in central Ha Tinh province that’s worth $6.3 billion.More and more, such projects are seen as a way to boost tourism, cross-border trade and reinforce supply chain resiliency at a critical time for global trade. That is a sharp shift in outlook from just a few years ago, when many BRI projects in Asia were perceived as unfair or corrupt. Then-Malaysian Prime Minister suspended three BRI projects in 2018, including its $20 billion Chinese railway, calling the venture a “new version of colonialism.” Yet after facing a $5 billion cancelation penalty, the two sides renegotiated the cost of the 640-kilometer (400 miles) project down to ($17.8 billion). Transport Minister Loke said it could still take anywhere from 50-100 years to recoup the project’s costs but he insisted that it’s still worth it.“You have to look at how this project can transform the country,” Loke said, citing the expected development of industrial parks.Even Mahathir has come around. In an Oct. 2 interview, he said, “It's obvious many Southeast Asian countries have a lot of resources, materials it exports to China and sending it by ship takes a long time — it's not convenient. If we have a rail line linking Southeast Asia with China, products from Southeast Asia can reach China faster and probably at a lower cost.”It’s too early to know whether the golden corridor will be fully realized. Indonesian officials their China-backed railway saved millions in fuel costs and slashed commuting times. Yet it’s also missed . The state-owned operator, PT Kereta Api Indonesia, has expressed concerns over its debt burden and called for additional government assistance to cover operational costs. Beijing “mutually beneficial cooperation” with developing countries in a written reply to Bloomberg’s questions. “Mutual connections and links are going deeper and more substantial,” China’s Foreign Minister said during a meeting with regional counterparts in July. The “China-Laos railway is booming.”Expanding rail links also give Beijing another way to showcase its national security prowess. The new Laos line has already been used to tanks and armored trucks during joint drills. Asean officials may single it out during next week’s meetings: last year’s summit in Indonesia included Chinese Premier Li Qiang taking a joyride on the link between Jakarta and Bandung.The growing web of Chinese infrastructure projects hasn’t gone unnoticed in Washington. The US touts its expanding efforts to boost infrastructure in Asia as more transparent and less risky. The flagship effort in that program is a port upgrade in Sri Lanka backed by a $553 million loan from the US Development Finance Corp. At the same time, China is revamping how it makes infrastructure loans after getting burned by defaults in nations including Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Even with the new US efforts, China has the biggest wallet for developing nations to turn to, and countries still see the benefit of that cooperation. Asean Secretary General said in an interview that a broader Southeast Asian rail network would bring “tremendous benefit” to a bloc that represents the world’s fifth-largest economy. “I mean, everyone’s in debt,” he said. “The most important thing is how countries manage the debt.”
