在中国股票市场反弹之际，全球基金经理和策略专家表现出了审慎态度，对其信心有所保留，并等待北京政府采取实际行动来兑现刺激经济的承诺。一些观点认为，尽管市场短期内出现上扬，但需要坚实的基本面作为支撑才能实现持久的股票行情。Invesco、JPMorgan Asset Management、HSBC Global Private Banking和Nomura Holdings Inc.等机构均表示对近期复苏持怀疑态度，并正在观察中国政府后续实际行动。
投资人们指出，此轮股价上涨已导致一些股票估值过高，缺乏清晰的基于预计盈利表现的价值主张。自一系列经济支持措施推出以来，中国股市已出现显著上扬态势。据彭博社追踪数据显示，在过去一个月中，H股指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)飙升超过30%，成为全球主要90多个股市指数中涨幅最大的。
然而，尽管市场充满乐观情绪，历史的波动性和近期反弹的反转情况提醒人们需保持谨慎。随着中国股票对更广泛的新兴市场指标的影响增强，并挤压了那些在最大发展中国家持有过低仓位的基金经理的表现，市场的持续性复苏对其年终绩效以及与中国经济存在交易和投资联系的国家将产生直接影响。
对于今年初就持较为乐观态度的投资人如Invesco的Ma来说，在当前阶段他并未急于扩大投资。Ma指出，一些股票价格已上涨30%至40%，接近历史高位，这使其在接下来12个月内基本面是否会达到峰值之前的表现存疑。“那正是我们需要削减的一类股票。”他说。
JPMorgan Asset Management同样持有谨慎看法，认为需要采取更多政策举措以提振经济活动和信心。该公司的亚太地区首席市场策略师在香港表示：“目前宣布的政策有助减轻去杠杆化过程中的波动，但资产修复还需进一步进行。”
对于HSBC Global Private Banking来说，他们认为中国已经采取的措施不足以改变其长期经济增长放缓的局面。“为维持复苏动力并促进增长至实现2024年5%国内生产总值目标，需要更大的财政宽松。”该银行香港的投资总监说。
不过，并非所有市场人士都持保守观点。Fidelity International在香港的全球多资产投资管理负责人认为，尽管当前估值仍然低于平均水平，但从技术角度看仍有上涨空间。“这轮反弹可能有更长的持续性，但要转化为实际业绩是一个更为关键的问题。”他说。
在最悲观的预期下，Nomura Holdings Inc.警告称市场反弹可能是泡沫式的，并且存在迅速破裂的风险。该银行报告指出，在最糟糕的情况中，股市狂热之后可能会出现崩溃现象，类似于2015年所经历的。报告认为这种结果比更加乐观的情景具有更高的可能性。
另外，部分投资者和策略家对刺激措施对中国债市和货币的影响表示关注。随着股票市场反弹开始，中国债券价格下跌，结束了投资者购买避险资产而导致收益率创新低的局面。“尽管存在许多需要解决的挑战，但我们还需要确保这些政策干预有效稳定房价走势，并避免再次将资金涌入股市。”ING Bank在香港的中国大陆经济学负责人强调。
对于中国央行每日参考汇率的影响和人民币的走向，市场也保持着密切关注。近一个月以来，离岸人民币已升值超过1%，正接近每美元7元的关键水平。如果这一门槛被突破，可能会引发新一轮行情上涨。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stock Skepticism Gets Louder as World-Beating Run Extends
新闻日期：2024-10-06
原文摘要：
The in Chinese stocks is failing to convince many global fund managers and strategists.Invesco Ltd., JPMorgan Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those viewing the recent rebound with skepticism and waiting for Beijing to back up its stimulus pledges with real money. Some are also concerned many stocks are already reaching overvalued levels.Chinese shares have skyrocketed since as a barrage of economic, financial and market-support measures reinvigorated investor confidence. The Hang Seng China Enterprises , which comprises Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, has jumped more than 30% over the past month, making it the best performer among more than 90 global equity gauges tracked by Bloomberg.“In the short term, sentiment could overshoot but people will go back to fundamentals,” said , Invesco’s chief investment officer for Hong Kong and Mainland China. “Because of this rally, some stocks have become really overvalued” and they lack a clear value proposition based on their likely earnings performance, he said.Read more: Stimulus announced by Beijing has included interest-rate cuts, freeing-up of cash at banks, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term slide in property prices. While there’s plenty of optimism that could underpin a sustainable equity rally, there have been a number of before, most recently a rally in February that completely unwound.The surge in the past has seen Chinese equities reassert their influence over broader emerging-market gauges, and dented the performance of fund managers who had been running underweight positions in the biggest developing-nation economy. The durability of the rebound will not only matter for the year-end performance of index-tracking funds, but also have direct implications for nations that have trading and investment links with China.Ma at Invesco, who was one of relatively few coming into this year, said he’s in no rush to add to his investments now.“There are a group of stocks whose share prices are up by 30% to 40% and almost at historical highs,” he said. “Whether in the next 12 months the fundamentals will be as good as before their peak, that’s more uncertain to me. That would be the category we would like to trim.”Read more: JPMorgan Asset Management is just as cautious.“Additional policy steps would be needed to boost economic activity and confidence,” said , Asia Pacific chief market strategist in Hong Kong. “The policies announced so far can help to smoothen out the de-leveraging process, but the balance-sheet repairing would still need to take place.”Hui also pointed to global uncertainties that may crimp the nascent stock rally.“With the U.S. elections only a month away, many investors would argue that the U.S. view of China as an economic and geopolitical rival is a bipartisan consensus,” he said. Moreover, “foreign investors may choose to wait for economic data to bottom out and for this new policy direct to solidify,’ he said.HSBC Global Private Banking remains concerned the steps China has taken aren’t enough to reverse the nation’s slowing long-term growth outlook.“More significant fiscal easing is still needed to sustain the recovery momentum and shore up growth to achieve the 5% 2024 GDP growth target,” said , chief investment officer for Asia at the private bank in Hong Kong. “For now, we stay neutral on mainland China and Hong Kong equities based on our expectation of China’s GDP growth decelerating from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025.”Still, some remain bullish, saying valuations are cheap due to the three-year selloff.“The rally can run, there’s a lot of money that still needs to rebalance. especially from global investors,” , global head of multi-asset investment management at Fidelity International in Hong Kong, said on Bloomberg Television.“We know valuations are still below mean and could run further from a technical view. This could have more legs and how much it goes into earnings is a bigger question,” he said.Nomura Holdings Inc. is among the most pessimistic, warning the rally may quickly turn from.In the most gloomy scenario, “a stock market mania would be followed by a crash, similar to what happened in 2015,” Nomura economists led by in Hong Kong wrote in a note to clients. That outcome may have a “much higher probability” than more optimistic scenarios, they said.Some investors and strategists are also wary about what the stimulus blitz means for the nation’s bonds and currency.China’s bonds have dropped since the stock rally started, ending at least temporarily a period in which yields set successive record lows as investors bought haven assets.“There are still major challenges to be resolved, and it’s not an easy road,” said , chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank in Hong Kong. “We need to ensure that this policy blitz is effective in stabilizing the downward trajectory of the housing market and not just result in a rush of hot money to equities.”Bonds may become a beneficiary if the stock market cools, Song said. “There’s certainly a risk we could revert back to the previous months’ environment if anything goes wrong in the next steps ahead.”Yuan traders will be watching out on Tuesday for the central bank’s daily reference rate, the level around which the currency is allowed to trade. The onshore yuan has strengthened more than 1% in the past month to approach the key level of 7 per dollar. A break of that barrier may trigger a further rally.
