柬埔寨因其地理位置联系着中国、印度和东南亚国家，在地缘政治上的重要性远超其国土面积。北京对这个邻国进行了大规模投资，兴建了诸如运河和港口等关键基础设施项目，这些行动带来了显著的经济支持与回报的同时，也极大地增加了中国在该地区的政治影响力。
如果忽视这一点，会让世界第二大经济体在全球最具战略意义的区域之一拥有更多权力。在中国成为柬埔寨最大外国投资者的情况下，前领导人洪森毫不掩饰对中国的依赖，“如果我不依靠中国，能依仗谁呢？”2023年，他儿子洪文内塔继任总理职务，并似乎继续遵循父亲的理念，高度倚重北京来推动经济稳定。
最新的基础设施项目之一是一个耗资17亿美元的运河工程，横跨柬埔寨约180公里，从首都金边延伸至沿海省份。此类中国资助项目带来的后果也十分明显：柬埔寨对外债务总额近1110亿美元中，有几乎一半是由中国提供的。其中特别令人关注的是位于泰国湾靠近南海沿岸的Ream海军基地。它不仅控制着关键的海上交通线，最近有关中国计划向金边交付两艘战舰的消息，进一步加剧了地区的紧张局势。
美军消息源推测此举为掩盖中国的海军扩张意图，但洪森在今年早些时候对此予以否认。柬埔寨的社会治理状况正在恶化。根据《世界司法项目》法治指数显示，该国在2023年的排名降至第141位/142名，最新案件中知名记者梅克·达拉因报道腐败和网络诈骗事件被捕，面临长达两年的监禁风险，这激起了国际社会尤其是美国的关切。
有观点认为，在北京的影响下，柬埔寨的风险在于可能沦为一个无法自我维持的国家。穆索查，一名在日内瓦工作的反对派领导人、曾担任被解散的柬民族救援党副主席，并担心着中国对媒体、公民社会组织以及民主机构的影响，导致政权对其实施打压。“我们虽然小国一员，但具有地缘政治的重要价值。”她说，“北京试图控制这一区域以确保贸易通道的畅通无阻，这是全球希望看到的局面吗？”
在俄乌战争及中东局势动荡之际，美国和国际社会对于柬埔寨的关注有所松懈。然而，柬埔寨及其在南海争议地区的政策选择仍然值得他们的关注与警惕。
美国对柬关系的巩固措施是关键之一，这包括今年6月国防部长奥斯汀访问金边，旨在增强与新领导层的关系。这些互动应当继续，并需要在下一届政府中延续，以提升美国在该地区的影响力。此外，通过支持非政府组织、推动法治和人权，并扶持民主机构的举措也能帮助缓解局势。
柬埔寨确乎是一个高度管控的国家，但与之交流能够提供替代北京视角的力量是必要的，尤其是考虑到当前的地缘政治格局变化。
面对乌克兰战争和中东地区持续的混乱，美中全球竞争正使柬埔寨等地区面临新的挑战。柬埔寨值得更多关注，并需要来自国际社会的支持以确保其政策选择不会继续向中国一方倾斜。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：US Should Not Let Cambodia Drift Further Into China's Grip
新闻日期：2024-10-06
原文摘要：
Sitting on trade routes that link China, India and Southeast Asia, Cambodia’s geopolitical importance far outweighs its land mass. Beijing has invested heavily in its neighbor, building key infrastructure projects like canals and ports. But with economic largesse has come increased political influence. Ignoring that would cede more power to the world’s second-largest economy in a region that is at risk of drifting away from Washington. China continues to be the leading foreign in the kingdom. Former strongman leader has made no secret of his affection, famously : “If I don’t rely on China, who will I rely on?” In 2023, his son Hun Manet over as prime minster, and appears to be working from the same playbook, leaning heavily on Beijing to prop up the economy.The project is a $1.7 billion canal, that spans some 180 kilometers (111 miles) from Phnom Penh to the coastal province of — the latest among a host of Chinese-funded developments. But these have come with expensive repercussions: Nearly of Cambodia’s over $11 billion in foreign debt is owed to China. The Ream Naval is of particular concern. on the coast of the Gulf of Thailand near the South China Sea, it offers Beijing access to crucial shipping lanes. News that China is over two warships to Phnom Penh will further raise regional tensions. US military sources the upgrades are a cover for Chinese naval expansion, a claim Hun Sen denied earlier this year.Life in the Southeast Asian nation is becoming more oppressive. Cambodia comes in at 141 out of 142 in The World Justice Project's Rule of Law for 2023. Last week’s of Mech Dara, an award-winning Cambodian journalist who reported on corruption and online scam centers, is just the latest example. He was with inciting social unrest and faces up to two years in jail. Several governments, the US, have expressed concern. The kingdom risks becoming a failed state under Chinese control, Mu Sochua, the opposition leader who until recently was vice president of the banned Cambodian National Rescue Party, told me from Geneva. “We may be a small country, but we are very important geopolitically. Beijing wants to control this spot to secure the passage of trade, transport or military equipment. Is this what the world wants?” She now leads the newly formed , an organization aimed at building unity within the diaspora to further political change at home. Among her biggest concerns is growing Chinese influence. “Our media, our civil society, our institutions of democracy have all been trampled on, and China’s influence on the political system is helping the regime to do that,” Sochua told me. The Communist Party of China the Cambodian regime as a like-minded partner. It has almost $18 billion dollars worth of aid and loans into the kingdom, turning it into a client state.Phnom Penh shows its loyalty through foreign policy. It actively Beijing’s unification with Taiwan, for instance, and consistently backs its position on the South China Sea in regional forums. China says it owns almost all of the lucrative waterway, despite a ruling from an international tribunal the Philippines’ claims. As part of the 10-member , Cambodia blocked statements on the issue in and , and joint-Asean naval drills in the contested waters. The topic will likely come up again at the Asean in Laos this week, when the bloc is due to meet with China, along with Japan and South Korea, on the sidelines of the gathering. It’s more than just a case of friends with benefits. Earlier this year, the two sides conducted joint , which included over 2,000 military personnel carrying out drills on land and at sea. There are concrete steps Washington could take to prevent any further drift to Beijing. In June, the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Cambodia to ties with the new leadership. These visits should continue under the next administration, but more needs to be done to shore up America’s credibility in the region. civil society groups by promoting the rule of law and human rights, along with fostering democratic organizations, could also help. It is a tightly controlled nation no doubt, but engaging with groups that provide an alternative to the current Beijing-backed narrative is essential.With a war in Ukraine and growing chaos in the Middle East, Washington and the global community are understandably distracted. Cambodia deserves their attention. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
