在金融市场的一片静默中，中国以令人猝不及防的方式猛然出手，出台了一系列刺激措施，并在黄金周假期前宣布了这一决定。尽管具体细节仍不明朗，官方的转变以及带来的“大动作”使得顶级投资者大卫·特珀(David Tepper)表达了增加对中国资产投资的兴趣。然而，大多数首席投资官在做出资产配置决策时，面临的是更为复杂的考量，因为他们必须回答如何在资金管理中为中国的投入辩护。
在错过了最初涨势后，这些投资领袖现在需要提出一个有说服力的论点来支撑他们关于中国市场的地位。根据最近的全球基金经理调查报告，在9月初，押注中国股票和做多美国大型科技股是市场上最受追捧的投资主题之一。三分之一被调研者已转向其他国家。
然而，时局正在变化。在一段爆发性的上涨之后，MSCI中国指数已经达到了标普500指数的水平，累计涨幅超过30%。这引发了一个问题：客户可能会问他们的投资经理，他们对中国市场是否有过多的暴露？特别是当美国市场似乎失去动力的时候。
尽管最近的估值调整，中国的股市仍然相对具有吸引力，价格并不高昂。这一举措与北京在2022年底从“清零”政策退出时的情况相类似——都涉及了突然、激进的转向策略。如果我们以此类比，在早些时候的2023年年初，MSCI中国指数大约以11.8倍12个月后预期收益的价格交易；现在则是11.4倍左右。
换言之，市场的乐观情绪似乎与去年重启时期（即解除封锁后希望释放被压抑消费需求）相当。然而，这与过去几年中看到的狂热并不相仿。中国股市过去四年经历了持续的“打折”状态。大型科技企业的严苛监管和房地产行业的深度疲软将一个曾经受到外国投资者青睐的增长市场转变为了一个价值陷阱。
在2021年初市场高位时，MSCI中国的估值约为19倍预期收益，比当时的S&P指数便宜了约15%。如今这一差距已经扩大到了近一半。因此，首席投资官面临的紧迫问题是：大幅刺激计划的推出以及官方对大型消费者科技企业态度的转变，是否有可能重新定义中国股市的价值？如果真的出现了“估值回升”的情况，现在仍然是加大配置的时候。
然而，在忽视中国这一全球第二大经济体的过程中，许多管理者可能已经失去了对这个问题的答案。弄清楚习近平主席政策转向的背后原因至关重要——这将决定这次转折是北京的转折点还是又一短暂的复苏浪潮。无论结果如何，新兴市场投资总是充满风险的，不了解中国市场就无法准确预知下一个“中国”何时出现。
例如，选择回避中国的策略可能会导致明显的落后于基准的表现，并且引发投资者对其对中国巨大经济规模无任何暴露的质疑。以东南亚为例，它正成为中国重要的贸易伙伴和合作伙伴网络的一部分，从巴西到印尼的全球南方国家都在其中扮演角色。中国作为一个测试投资管理者洞察力、信念与研究能力的地方，无疑是一个检验市场反应能力和对复杂政策环境适应能力的良好场所。
关键在于判断这次转向是否预示着共产党的重大转变，还只是一次“死猫反弹”。不论结果如何，在面对全球风险的新兴市场时，深入了解中国都是必不可少的。此外，更多关于中国市场及其投资潜力的观点和洞察可以从相关文章中获取。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Is Making Investor Calls So Awkward
新闻日期：2024-10-06
原文摘要：
Don’t ever underestimate China’s ability to shock and awe. Just when global asset managers had given up for good, Beijing made an abrupt turn, rolling out a barrage of stimulus measures before going on a week long national holiday. While lacking in operational details, the change in official rhetoric and the “big guns” they’re bringing out prompted billionaire investor David Tepper to declare his desire to buy more of . Unfortunately, most chief investment officers don’t have Tepper’s swagger. They manage other people’s money and need to justify their asset allocations. Having already missed the initial stage of the rally, they need to come up with a coherent argument to defend their positioning on China. As of early September, shorting China — and being bullish on US big tech — were the two most crowded trades, according to the latest Bank of America global fund managers survey. One-third of those polled were already looking elsewhere, . But the tables are turning. After an explosive rally, the benchmark MSCI China Index has caught up with the S&P 500 Index, gaining around 30% for the year. So it’s not hard to imagine clients asking their money mangers how much exposure they already had on China, and whether it was time to accumulate, especially since the US market appears to have lost its momentum. Chinese equities are still not expensive despite the recent melt-up. People have compared this economic policy pivot to Beijing’s exit from Covid Zero in late 2022, finding similarities in their abrupt and sharp turn. If we are referencing that time, the MSCI China index traded at as much as 11.8 times 12-month forward earnings in early 2023. We are at 11.4 times now. In other words, market optimism is just about par with the 2023 reopening trade, when investors had hoped that the end of lockdown would unleash pent-up consumer demand, but well short of the euphoria seen in earlier years. What we have witnessed over the last four years was a steady de-rating of Chinese equities. Regulatory crackdowns on big tech, as well as a deep property downturn, have transformed China from a growth market well-loved by foreigners into a value trap. At its early 2021 peak, MSCI China traded at close to 19 times forward earnings, about a 15% discount to the S&P’s valuation. Now, the valuation discount has widened to almost half. So the big question that CIOs must address is whether a supercharged stimulus package, as well as an official reversal in attitudes toward big consumer tech, might create a paradigm shift in Chinese equities again. If a re-rating occurs, it’s not too late to build up positions. Unfortunately, by taking their eyes off China, many are no longer equipped to answer that. By the time they figure out what prompted President Xi Jinping’s change of heart — an essential point in that it determines whether this is Beijing’s “” moment — as well as how much stimulus domestic investors are expecting, the market would have moved beyond their recognition. Of course, an easy way out is to ask whether China is investable, given the unpredictable nature of Beijing’s policymaking. Lombard Odier’s CIO Michael Strobaek, for one, has and said he was moving into other emerging markets. But this strategy runs the risk of glaring underperformance, as well as investor ire and skepticism, as to whether one can really have no exposure to the world's second-largest economy. Southeast Asia, for instance, has risen to become Beijing’s . China Inc. is made up of big investors in the fast-growing Global South, from Brazil to Indonesia. China is a good place to test a money manager’s insight, conviction and research capabilities. Its government has a proven track record of hitting a wall, bleeding, turning around and somehow staging a comeback. So the key is to discern whether this is a pivotal moment for the Communist Party or just another dead cat bounce. Either way, emerging markets investing is risky business, and one simply can’t spot the next China if she doesn’t know China. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
