新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Chinese Stock Traders Ponder Just How Bad the Economy Can Get
新闻日期：2024-09-15
周六公布的经济数据显示，今年中国经济的主要动力——出口和政府支持的增长势头正在减弱。工业生产增长率低于预期，连续第四个月呈现疲弱态势，这是自2021年9月以来最长的一次。
这些数据“可能让市场觉得当局睡着了，”Melbourne Capital.Com Inc.的高级市场分析师表示。中国人民银行上周表示，将加强抗通缩的努力，并准备更多政策以恢复经济，尽管此前已实施的减息措施未能提升私人信心。
“真正的问题是企业精神缺失，许多商人不愿投资。”一位经验丰富的新兴市场投资者说，“政府需要放松对私营企业的限制和规制，以激发私营部门活力并促进经济增长。”
原文摘要：
A slew of poor economic data from China is deepening pessimism among equities traders wondering what it’d take for authorities to initiate forceful stimulus.Figures released Saturday Chinese factory output, consumption and investment all slowed more than forecast for August, and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high. Home prices from the previous month.“The fear is that the authorities are losing control of the economy and they won’t admit it,” said , chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office. “The market looks set to go to significantly lower levels in the absence of real, substantial new policies.”Concern that Beijing doesn’t have the stomach to turn things around has weighed on the nation’s equities. The CSI 300 Index to its lowest since early 2019 last week. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has dropped 13% from a high in May. Any reaction in Chinese stocks on Monday will be focused on Hong Kong, with mainland financial markets closed until Wednesday due to holidays.Authorities have shown a reluctance to unleash big-bang fiscal stimulus ever since they acted to deflate a property bubble, which has led to the current crisis. Support measures such as interest-rate cuts and state funds’ purchases of exchange-traded funds have done little to revive sentiment. The result has been an exodus from the nation’s equity markets. In all, some $6.8 trillion has been from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021. Read more: Saturday’s figures suggest the main driver of the Chinese economy this year — bolstered by exports and government support — is losing steam. Industrial output expanded at a slower rate than economists had expected, extending a weakening streak to the fourth month, the longest stretch since September 2021.The economic data “probably makes the markets feel like authorities are asleep at the wheel,” said , a senior market analyst at Capital.Com Inc. in Melbourne. The People’s Bank of China last week it will step up its fight against deflation and prepare additional policies to revive the economy, after credit data showed private confidence remained weak despite previous interest-rate cuts.Still, stimulus can only go so far in China’s current business climate, according to veteran emerging-market investor .Read more: “The real problem is that the entrepreneurial impetus is missing, with lots of businessmen unwilling to invest,” he said. “It will be necessary for the government to loosen up on private enterprise restrictions and regulations so the private sector can be stimulated and help grow the economy.”
