新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s Power in Asia Plateauing Below US, Lowy Institute Says
新闻日期：2024-09-22
中国在亚太地区影响力的态势呈现平稳状态，虽未超越美国但亦不衰退，据悉尼智库洛伊研究所对其年度亚洲影响力分析报告所示。
该报告明确指出，在涵盖军事能力、外交与文化影响、韧性以及未来资源等八大主题的亚洲权力指数中，中美仍是顶尖势力，主导区域局势。中国并未呈现出显著的增长或消减趋势；其经济实力的停滞增长，归因于经济增长放缓及长期结构难题，使得中国的经济影响力虽稳定但不再扩张。
报告还揭示了印度超越日本，位列第三名，澳大利亚排名第五，而俄罗斯下滑至第六位。美国在八个主要评估领域中领先中国六项，仅军事能力方面，美优势有所削弱。值得注意的是，专家首次判断，在面对亚太地区可能的国家间冲突时，中国具备更快速且持续部署力量的能力。
报告还提到，印度影响力的增强得益于其丰富资源与外交影响力，但经济关系仍为薄弱环节。报告强调，新德里在马六甲海峡以东区域的势力投射能力有限，然而，鉴于其影响力实际水平远低于预期的资源水平，这预示着未来作为主要大国存在巨大的增长潜力。
该研究所总结称，尽管中国和印度短期内难望超越美国，但这两个国家仍有广阔的发展前景。
原文摘要：
China’s power in Asia is plateauing at a level below the US as its economic capability is curtailed, according to the Lowy Institute’s annual analysis of influence in the region.“Power in Asia remains a bipolar game, with the world’s two superpowers topping our ranking by a considerable margin,” the Sydney-based think tank said in a report Sunday.“China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing, but plateauing,” the institute said. “Flatlining economic capability, driven by slower economic growth and longer-term structural challenges, means that China’s economic clout, while still commanding, is no longer growing.”Read more: The Asia Power Index rankings encompass eight broad themes including military capability, diplomatic and cultural influence, resilience and future resources. The results also showed India overtaking Japan to be third-ranked, while Australia rose to fifth and Russia dropped to sixth.The US leads China in six of eight broad measures, although in military capability the US advantage is eroding, the institute said.For the first time, experts “judged that China is better able to deploy rapidly and for a sustained period in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia,” it said.Read more: India’s power is growing, driven by its rich resources and diplomatic influence — although its economic relationships remain a weak point, the institute said.“New Delhi still has limited ability to project power and influence east of the Malacca Strait,” it said. “However, the fact that its influence remains well below the level promised by its resources suggests it still has ample potential for further growth as a major power.”
