在绝大多数经济学家看来，中国经济要以约5%的增长率扩展运行路径，并克服预期持续五年之久、价值18万亿美元的家庭财富缩水的房地产危机，最有效的途径在于全面实施政府主导的计划并确保其达到最大效能。在 Bloomberg 的一项调查中，15位分析师提出的政策选项显示，在面对经济是否能实现北京年度增长目标的疑虑加深的情况下，多数受访者将更加坚决地执行政府方案列为首选。
“要打破通缩螺旋，需要彻底转变思维方式”，澳大利亚与新西兰银行集团大中华区首席经济学家如此表示，“大规模放宽措施以避免名义国内生产总值收缩是必要的。”
长达数年的房地产低迷，已经是中国经济面临的最大挑战。它夺走了成千上万个工作岗位、耗损了消费者信心并削减了对如消费品等产品的需求。然而，在中国实施其有史以来最广泛的尝试之一来提振房市的四个月后，针对包括提供3000亿元（425亿美元）央行资金帮助政府支持公司收购开发商滞销住宅在内的一系列计划而言，进展缓慢。
就业情况亦同步恶化，青年失业率继8月份上升至今年新高后连续两个月攀升。同期，政府数据揭示出预算赤字因房地产销售税收入骤降41.8%而遭受重创。
没有强有力的刺激举措，预计中国今年的实际经济增长率为4.8%，略低于官方设定的目标区间下限。但考虑到价格下滑的影响，名义增长率可能低至4.25%。
除住房支持措施之外的其他方法似乎不足以提振经济动能，调查显示。四位经济学家偏好鼓励地方政府使用债券额度，两人投出减息票选，并有一位提议调整预算以释放更多公共支出。
同时，在接受调查的八位经济学家看来，中国房地产领域的阴霾预计将延续二至五年之久。
尽管政策制定者迄今仅是推出了连续的小幅支持措施，中国经济却需果断、前倾式的财政刺激。”Maybank 投资银行集团的经济学者如是说，“现在是时候实施有力且前置化的财政提振。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Must Ramp Up Housing Rescue to Propel Growth, Economists Say
新闻日期：2024-09-22
原文摘要：
China’s housing rescue package offers the best path for putting the country on track to expand around 5%, in the view of most economists, assuming it’s deployed to maximum effect in the face of a real estate crisis expected to last as long as five more years.Among the policy options considered by 15 analysts in a Bloomberg survey, a more forceful implementation of the government-led plan was the top choice of a majority of respondents. The poll followed the of data for August that deepened doubts over whether the economy Beijing’s annual growth goal.“A complete change in mindset is required to break the deflationary spiral,” said , chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “A massive easing is needed to avoid a contractionary nominal GDP.”The years-long real estate slump that’s wiped out an estimated $18 trillion in wealth from households has been the single biggest challenge faced by the Chinese economy. It’s cost millions of jobs, ravaged consumer confidence and brought down demand for products like .Yet four months after China its most far-reaching attempt to revive the property market, has been slow on plans that include a program to provide 300 billion yuan ($42.5 billion) of central bank funding to help government-backed firms buy unsold homes from developers. Unemployment has worsened in the meantime, with the youth jobless rate rising for the second straight month in August to its level this year.Designed to reduce the glut, the package of measures is far short of the 1 trillion to 5 trillion yuan that some analysts said was needed to deliver a more decisive fix. And given the unattractive economics of the plan for local authorities, only 29 cities are heeding the call to help absorb an excess of housing, a fraction of more than 200 urged to participate by the central government. China has dismissed as risky and overly expensive a proposal — with a price tag of — made by the International Monetary Fund to use central government funds to complete unfinished housing on a large scale. Authorities have been unwilling to extend more support to the housing sector, in part, because of Beijing’s resolve to shift the economy’s growth driver away from property to technology and manufacturing. The government has urged banks to lend to developers and stalled housing projects, while stopping short of providing direct funding. Fiscal policy has been a on economic growth this year — a broad measure of government spending fell an annual 2.9% in the first eight months of 2024, accelerating from a 2% drop in the seven months through July, according to the latest government data. A plunge in revenue from land sales has been a particular drain on budgets, with the earnings slumping a record 41.8% in the January-August period.Without a stimulus blitz, the Chinese economy is expected to expand 4.8% this year in real terms, according to the median forecast of economists in the survey, falling roughly at the lower end of the government’s target range. But nominal growth, which factors in the impact of declining prices, will likely come far lower at 4.25%, they estimate.Measures other than housing support will likely prove less effective in giving the economy a push, the survey showed. Four of the economists favor encouraging local governments to use their bond quotas, two voted for rate cuts, and one chose a budget revision to unleash more public spending.Meanwhile, China’s property gloom is projected to last another two to five years by eight economists in the survey.Chinese authorities are considering various ways to shore up the real estate market. That includes local governments buy unsold homes with funds raised from special bond issuance, rates on outstanding mortgages, and some of the remaining home purchase restrictions for consumers.Local officials have been cautious because property prices are expected to slide further despite previous plunges, while estimated returns from turning inventory into affordable rental housing are below the cost of funding.In a sign the slow roll-out of the rescue plan has failed to put a floor under the downturn, new-home prices in China 0.73% last month from July, the biggest decline since 2014. Property investment continued to decrease at a double-digit rate, while consumption weakened more than expected and a deceleration in production notched its longest slowing streak since 2021.“Policymakers have so far chosen to stay the course and roll out steady drips of policy support.” said , an economist with Maybank Investment Banking Group. “The time has come for a forceful, front-loaded fiscal boost.”
