在过去几年里，在亚洲政治格局的竞争中，美国与中国的经济与军事实力占据着绝对优势地位。每年发布的一份备受瞩目且由悉尼智库主持研究的报告再度确认了这一点：中美两国影响力稳固不减，但在一个显著的区别背后蕴含着未来的潜在变化——印度、日本和印尼正逐步崛起，在经济与战略层面扮演日益重要的角色，预示着亚洲未来格局的重大转型。
这份题为“年度国家影响力的评估”的报告每年对27个国家及地区进行深度分析，并以政府、学术界的广泛关注著称。其中的“力量”概念被划分为两个维度：一个是拥有何种资源和影响力，另一个则是如何有效运用这些力量。最新的评估覆盖了新加入的东帝汶等国家和地区。美国与中国的排名持续稳固在首位和第二位，显示出了巨大的领先优势；而今年中美之间的差距更是达到历史最大值，原因在于中国的力量发展进入平缓期。
世界经济第二大的中国正在面临经济增长放缓与房地产市场危机的巨大压力，预计难以实现预定的约5%增长率目标，连其最高领导人习近平也表达了对其可能性的质疑。在国家安全至上的政策导向下，中国的商业信心和区域影响力正遭受一定程度的削弱。
值得一提的是，在军事能力方面，中国首次被评估为更有可能在全球范围内快速部署、并维持较长时间军事力量介入洲际冲突，其中最可能的情况是针对台湾的主权争议。美国总统拜登政府已明确表态，将全力确保台湾的安全免受“前所未有的攻击”。中美关系紧张加剧与美国加强对该地区的联盟深化推动了日韩等国的新一轮崛起。
日韩两国正从以经济和文化为中心的角色向更积极参与国防安全合作转变。日本在过去八十年代末期曾经历了一场对亚洲的军事占领，但到了九十年代初期，其外交政策转变为在东南亚投资的主导者，并且一直保持了比中国更为强大的经济体地位直到二〇一〇年。
如今，日本正定期参加南海地区的军事演习，成为东盟不可或缺的战略伙伴之一。同时，它与菲律宾签署了协议，旨在抗衡中国在这些水域不断增强的影响力，而这些水域的国际仲裁已经裁定并非完全属于中国。
除中美之外，亚洲还有其他力量崛起的趋势，如印度和印尼。新德里在中国影响力的评估中取得了第二名的增长成绩，紧随日本之后；印尼则成为增长最为显著的国家之一，在其人口众多的情况下令人惊讶。历史上，这个南亚大国在亚洲地区的关系构建上并非特别突出，主要是由于国内优先战略和对贸易协议的相对冷淡态度（例如曾拒绝签署包括新加坡在内的十五国跨太平洋伙伴关系协议）。但即便如此，印度仍然超越日本成为亚洲第三大影响力力量，尽管其实际影响力仍低于潜在实力。印度政府在推动具有Hindu倾向的政策时，面临了在穆斯林占多数地区的合作问题。
印尼则成为了本次报告中的最大赢家，在过去一年中对其他国家的政治影响力的显著增长令人瞩目，特别是在东南亚国家联盟主席职位上的“稳健表现”。新总统普拉博沃·苏比安托上任后，将需要在此基础上进一步推动经济复苏，并应对复杂环境下的挑战。现实情况是，这些亚洲国家目前还无法与美国和中国相匹敌——两国仍然是该地区的主要力量中心，但未来这种格局或将发生变化。
全球经济增长的重心从西方向东方转移的趋势自二〇〇八年金融危机后已持续进行中；根据国际货币基金组织的数据预测，亚洲地区到二〇二九年将贡献超过60%的全球增长。历史上，这一巨大贡献主要源自中国的力量推动。尽管中国经济正面临放缓，但该地区的其他国家将在定义亚洲下一世纪格局的过程中发挥关键作用。
一个日益由亚洲力量主导、不再完全由中美国力主宰的亚洲？这值得我们关注与支持。
至于更多关于《观点》的文章和订阅信息，有兴趣的读者可以自行查阅。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Asia’s Power Plays Aren’t Just About the US and China
新闻日期：2024-09-22
原文摘要：
Over the last few years, the clear winners of the power game in Asia have been the economic and military heavyweights, the US and China. A closely watched annual report puts them at the top of the table again, showing that their influence remains unwavering, but with a significant difference: India, Japan and Indonesia are rising in importance both economically and strategically, making them significant players in the region’s future.The , published annually by the Sydney-based think-tank , is monitored by governments and academics and the resources and influence of the countries it surveys. Power, Lowy says, can be measured in two ways: What countries have — and what they do with what they have. This year, the index is ranking 27 nations and territories. Timor-Leste is the newest entrant on the list. Washington and Beijing are in first and second place respectively, by a considerable margin. The US’s lead over China is the largest since 2018, when the report was first launched. That’s because Beijing’s power is plateauing. The world’s second-largest economy is faltering under the burden of slower growth and a persistent crisis in its housing market. Most economists that China will not make its growth target of around 5% this year — even President Xi Jinping seems that it’s unlikely. His focus on national security has come at the cost of business confidence and regional influence. There is one area where Lowy found that Beijing is ahead of the US, though: Military capability. For the first time, experts judged that China is better able to deploy rapidly, and for a sustained period, in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia. That would most likely be over Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. The US, under the Biden administration, has to defend it from an “unprecedented attack.” The heightened tensions between the superpowers, and Washington’s desire to deepen alliances in the region, has led to the renewed rise of nations like Japan, which is evolving from being an economic and cultural icon to one more active in defense and security cooperation, the report notes.This is a remarkable and positive shift. Just eight decades ago, much of the region was under a Japanese occupation during . In the 1980s, Tokyo’s relationship with Asia changed again. It has been a leading of investment in Southeast Asia for three decades, with an economy that was than China’s until 2010.Japan now regularly participates in exercises in the South China Sea, and has become an increasingly important partner to . It also signed agreements with Manila, with a view to pushing back against Beijing’s increasingly assertive presence in waters that an international tribunal don’t belong exclusively to China. Asia has other rising powers, too, like India and Indonesia. New Delhi was the second-biggest gainer on the power index, followed by Jakarta. Historically, the South Asian giant hasn’t been great at forging relationships in Asia, mostly because of domestic priorities and its seeming aversion to making trade deals (it the 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, in 2019, for example.) Despite this, India has overtaken Japan to become the third-ranked power in the region, but its clout remains below the potential promised by its resources. A Hindu agenda under Prime Minister Narendra Modi isn’t helping in parts of Muslim-majority Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Indonesia, with a population of 280 million, is the biggest gainer this year — surprising for a nation that is often viewed as below its potential. Jakarta is winning on the foreign policy front, with what Lowy’s experts called a “sure-footed chairing” of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian nations. Incoming President Prabowo Subianto, who is due to take over in October, will need to build on that success, while also the economy through a challenging time. The reality is that none of these countries can rival Washington and Beijing yet — the two are still the dominant players in this part of the world, and will be for some time to come. But economic power has been shifting from west to east since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. According to projections from the International Monetary Fund, will more than 60% to global growth by 2029. Historically, that’s largely been by China. But even as it slows, other countries in the region will help to define what Asia’s next century looks like. An Asia that is increasingly being driven by Asian power, besides China’s? We should get behind that. More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .
