在中美关系当前的背景下，国会竟然没有废除中国的永久正常贸易关系地位（即“最惠国待遇”）这一事实显得颇为意外。在这座山上，很难找到任何议员愿意公开为这项24年前达成的协议辩护。回顾当年的协议，当时美国总统比尔·克林顿在众议院批准他的政府与中国的贸易协定时曾称这是美国的一个“好日子”，并预测“十年后我们将会回过头来庆幸我们曾经这样做了”。然而，时间已经过去了近25年，结果却让人颇感失望。尽管几乎没有人对这项协议感到满意，但也有一些群体认为完全废除将给美国经济带来损害。
根据彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的一项研究显示，在短期内，取消中国永久正常贸易关系地位的举动会对农业、采矿以及耐用制造业产生最大影响。随着时间推移，这些失业工人可能会被服务业吸收，伴随着整个美国经济体实际工资的下降。“总体而言，废除中国的PNTR状态将导致美国GDP在基准情况下的短期下滑，并且经济难以完全恢复”，研究报告中如是说。
此外，如果对华加征额外关税或中国进行报复，通胀水平也会出现激增。研究指出，取消这一状态可能导致通胀分别上升0.2%和0.4%，这并不是两位总统候选人都希望看到的前景——尤其是他们在誓言打击通胀的情况下。更何况想象一下美联储政策制定者们会作何反应。
尽管PNTR废除的一个方面似乎很有可能实现——特别是在国会山日益对中国持负面态度的情境下，即恢复美国与中国自2000年前的状态。从1980年到千禧之年的二十年间，美国每年都会向中国提供正常的贸易关系待遇，但它并非永久性的。
2023年，众议院竞争与中国委员会在其报告中提出了一项类似的建议，在收到行业组织对更为严厉提案的意见后。
一旦一项法案获得通过并成为法律，废除的难度非常大，这也是立法者们更倾向于防止相关立法通过的主要原因之一。因此，完全取消中国永久正常贸易关系地位的可能性不大，但根据2024年共和党的平台要求，这一情况有可能发生，如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普再次当选。
如果副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯赢得选举，全面废除也不是不可能的选项。但国会可能会发现回归到2000年前的状态或许同样吸引人，并且实施起来并不容易。
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新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Supply Chain Latest: China’s Normal Trade Relations Hang in the Balance
新闻日期：2024-09-23
原文摘要：
Given the state of US-China relations at this point, it’s surprising that Congress hasn’t revoked the country’s permanent normal trade-relations status, formerly known as “most favored nation.”It’s hard to find anyone on Capitol Hill willing to publicly defend that 24-year-old deal, and its staying power is even more mind-bending when reading through accounts of the agreement from that time: President Bill Clinton called it a “good day for America” when the House of Representatives approved his administration’s agreement with China, and said “10 years from now we will look back on this day and be glad we did this.”Nearly a quarter century later the results are in. While no one is particularly happy with the deal, there are some groups who say a full repeal would do harm to the US economy. According to a by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, agriculture, mining and durable manufacturing would be hardest hit initially.“Over time, these unemployed workers would be absorbed into the services sector, through a fall in real wages across the US economy,” the report says. Overall, revoking China’s PNTR status would result in “a short-term decline in US GDP relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers.”Inflation would also spike as a result of repealing the status, by 0.2% if additional tariffs are imposed and 0.4% if China retaliates, according to the report. That’s not an attractive prospect for either presidential candidate vowing to take on inflation — and just imagine what policymakers at the Federal Reserve might think.The one aspect of PNTR repeal that does seem likely, especially given the sentiment toward China on Capitol Hill, is a return to where US-China relations were before the year 2000. For the two decades between 1980 and the dawn of the new millennium, the US granted China normal trade relations on an annual basis. It just wasn’t “permanent.”The House Committee on Competition with China recommended a similar move in their 2023 report after receiving from industry groups on a harsher proposal.Once a a measure is signed into law it’s very difficult to repeal, which is one of the reasons lobbyists spend most of their time trying to prevent legislation from getting passed.A complete repeal of China’s permanent normal trade-relations status is unlikely, but that’s what the 2024 GOP platform calls for, and it could happen if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, a full repeal isn’t off the table, but Congress may find that returning to the pre-2000 status quo might be just as attractive a proposition, though not easy to pull off.— in WashingtonRead More:The US economy is facing a jolt that threatens the kind of and consumer discontent rife during the pandemic — and possibly puts your daily dose of bananas at risk. Some 45,000 dockworkers at every major eastern and Gulf coastport are threatening to strike Oct. 1. With talks at a stalemate since June, industry officials now believe a strike is inevitable, and and have started sending out customer advisories and making contingency plans. The shock looms just as US policymakers shift focus from curbing inflation to shoring up thejob market — and just weeks before a knife-edged . Don’t keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can . We also publish the , a briefing on the latest in global economics. For even more: Follow on Twitter and for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters. How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. .
