正当中国政府宣布将由三大金融监管机构共同举行一次罕见的经济形势简报会之际，并在同日下调了短期政策利率时，外界猜测政府正为加大力度以提振经济增长做准备。周一，中国人民银行行长及相关部门官员将在简报会上讨论财政支持经济发展的重要议题。
紧接着，中国人民银行宣布将14天期逆回购利率降至1.85%，追随着7月的减息步伐，这一举动使得市场预期中国央行有进一步降低利率的可能性。上周美国联邦储备系统的降息行动，缓解了中国为支撑货币汇率所承受的压力。8月份一系列令人担忧的数据表明，政府可能会错过年度经济增长目标大约5%左右的水平，除非加大支持力度。
这一举措使中国政府债券10年期收益率在周一交易时段触及历史最低点2.03%，而沪深300指数也迎来连续四天上涨，这是过去两个月以来最长的一次持续上扬。Pinpoint资产管理公司的总裁及首席经济学家预测，在接下来的几个月内，中国人民银行将下调7天逆回购利率以及存款准备金率（RRR）。
该简报会为监管层提供了机会，“以揭示其政策立场”，他补充道。这次简报将在9点开始，比央行日常宣布短期政策贷款及其成本的时间提前20分钟，通常这些公告都是在10点钟发布。
此前，在今年1月的一次类似简报中，央行行长曾预先两周公布下调存款准备金率的消息，以试图遏制股市暴跌至6万亿元。在努力提振市场信心方面，他展现出了更加透明的政策态度。
“增强货币政策措施的力度”是中央银行行长在周一澳门举行的活动上做出的承诺，并已在人民银行网站发布这一声明。当局近期已表明正在准备进一步措施。
尽管亚洲其他央行现在有了更大的行动空间，但并非所有国家立即效仿了这次减息行动。例如印尼央行上周并未降低其主要利率，而澳大利亚央行计划于周二维持不变，与上周新西兰货币当局的决定形成对比，后者正处在加息路径上。
中国经济最近五年来最低增速使得减息措施未能刺激经济活力。房地产市场长期危机导致约18万亿美元家庭财富蒸发，削减了消费欲望并使中国进入自1999年以来最长的通缩期。
这意味着实际利率（调整后的物价变化）仍然较高，减弱了适度宽松政策的影响。土地销售收入的急剧下滑也限制了财政支出，使得负债累累的地方政府面临支付账单的压力，并减少了投资增长项目的能力。
目前，关注点集中在第四季度增长率是否能接近年度目标。东亚投资公司亚洲股票组合专家估计2024年最有可能实现4.8%的增长率。他表示，“货币政策能够帮助”，但关键在于刺激消费，提升消费者信心。“中国需要的是一个更大的一揽子解决方案”于周一降息的10个基点削减之外，ANZ大中华首席经济学家表示，在手头工具中，如存款准备金率、中期贷款便利（MLF）和房贷利率下调等政策措施也可能被宣布。
此外，中国政府需要引导现有的房贷利率下降，并推进今年5月推出的住房救援计划的执行。监管机构正在考虑允许上海、北京等超级城市为非本地买家提供更多购房选择。上周有近200个城市的其中29个城市响应号召以消化过剩的房地产库存，这仍被认为是弱的。
对此，Credit Agricole首席中国经济学家表示，“中国人民银行需要指导降低现有按揭贷款的利率。”监管机构还在计划提出一个提议，允许像上海和北京这样的超级城市对非本地买家提供购房资格。据路透社报道，这一提案已得到有关部门的认可并正在制定中。
尽管最近几个月央行并未强调降低政策贷款成本（如MLF），而更侧重于短期利率以引导市场预期，但这意味着在一周的全国性假期之前，即10月开始的一周长假前，中国人民银行可能会选择先行下调新的政策利率而非短期政策利率。这凸显了其调整顺序的变化。
例如，在7月份央行先于大规模降息措施前降低了7天期逆回购利率，并且自2020年4月以来的最多幅度进行了MLF贷款削减。
值得注意的是，市场正在关注中国政府可能采取的一系列举措组合，包括存款准备金率下调、中期借贷便利（MLF）下调以及房贷利率下降等。这次14天期逆回购利率的降低是为即将到来的国庆长假期间流动性管理所做的准备之一，在过去的春节周长假期前，中国人民银行通常会提供为期两周的贷款服务。
上次央行采取降息措施是在接近农历新年假期之际，以确保市场流动性的平稳运行。“需要一个更大的政策组合包”，ANZ大中华首席经济学家强调，“还有更多的政策措施可利用，如存款准备金率、中期借贷便利（MLF）和房贷利率下调，预计这些措施将被宣布。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China's PBOC Cuts Short-Term Rate Due to Slowing Economy Following Fed Move
新闻日期：2024-09-23
原文摘要：
China announced plans for a rare briefing on the economy by three top financial regulators just as it cut one of its short-term policy rates, fueling speculation officials are preparing to ramp up efforts to revive growth.Authorities announced Monday that central bank governor will hold a press conference tomorrow on financial support for economic development, alongside officials. Minutes later, the People’s Bank of China lowered the 14-day reverse repurchase rate, catching up with reductions initiated in July.Taken together the moves bolster expectations for the PBOC to lower rates, after the US Federal Reserve finally started cutting last week easing pressure on China’s need to defend its currency. A slew of disappointing data in August raised concerns that President ’s government could miss its annual growth target of around 5% without unleashing more support. Traders appeared to be pricing in more stimulus, with the yield on China’s 10-year government bonds falling to a fresh low of 2.03% in the Monday morning session. The benchmark CSI 300 Index for onshore stocks marked their fourth straight day of increases, the longest streak in two months.“I do expect the PBOC to cut the 7-day reverse repo rate as well as the reserve requirement ratio in the coming months,” said , president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. The briefing will give regulators a chance to “shed light on their policy stance,” he added. That event kicks off at 9 a.m. — 20 minutes before the PBOC’s daily announcement on its short-term policy loans and their costs, in contrast to more typical 10 a.m. start times.Pan used a similar briefing in January to announce a cut to the amount of money banks must hold in reserve — the RRR — two weeks ahead of time, as authorities tried to halt a $6 trillion stock-market rout. The governor has displayed a more transparent approach to policy as he tries to boost confidence.The central bank chief vowed to “enhance the intensity of monetary policy adjustment,” at an event in Macau on Monday, according to a posted on the PBOC’s website. The authority recently it was preparing additional policies.While the Fed’s bigger-than-expected half-percentage point slash has given central banks across Asia more room to move, not all are immediately following suit. Indonesia’s central bank reduced its main rate last week, but the Bank of Australia is set to hold on Tuesday, echoing last week’s decision by monetary authority which is on a hiking path.China’s string of rate cuts hasn’t done enough to stimulate an economy that most recently expanded at the slowest pace in five quarters. The years-long real estate crisis that’s wiped out an estimated $18 trillion in wealth from households has appetite for spending and pushed China into its longest streak of deflation since 1999.That means real interest rates — which are adjusted for changes in prices — have stayed elevated, weakening the impact of any moderate easing. A plunge in revenue from land sales has also held back fiscal spending, leaving indebted local governments struggling to pay their bills and with little bandwidth to invest in growth-boosting projects.Now, the focus is on whether China’s fourth-quarter growth can get “remotely close” to the annual target, said , Asia equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments, adding that a 4.8% expansion looked most likely for 2024. “Monetary policy could help,” he , “but ultimately getting the consumer to spend, and building up consumer confidence, is going to be key to China.”Economists in a Bloomberg poll pinpointed enforcement of the housing rescue package China unveiled in May as the single most-impactful way officials can give the economy a kick. So far, has been weak with only 29 of some 200 cities heeding the call to absorb a housing glut.“It is also needed for the PBOC to guide lower the interest rates on existing mortgages,” said Credit Agricole Chief China Economist , responding to the Monday cut. Regulators are also working on a proposal that would allow mega cities such as Shanghai and Beijing to for non-local buyers, Bloomberg News previously reported. China has a window Wednesday to lower the cost of its one-year policy loans, which officials have downplayed in recent months in favor of short-term rates to guide the market. That means the PBOC might opt to cut its new policy rate before making any change to the . Underscoring the shift in sequence, the central bank in July cut the seven-day reverse repo rate days before it slashed the MLF by the most since April 2020.The PBOC’s decision to lower the 14-day rate to 1.85% from 1.95% Monday came ahead of the week-long nationwide break that begins Oct 1. The central bank typically offers fortnight-long loans ahead of extended breaks, previously doing so in February ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year break. The last time officials cut the RRR came on the cusp of the Lunar New Year holiday, as they looked to smooth liquidity.“A bigger package is needed” than Monday’s 10-basis-point trim, said ANZ Chief Greater China Economist . “Other policy measures in the tool box such as RRR cut, MLF cut and mortgage rate cut will likely be announced.”
