摩根士丹利建议投资者应调整策略，不再过分关注在内地上市的中国股票，而将目光投向海外交易所交易的中国股票。根据该美国银行的观点，关键因素显示了这些在岸股票的魅力正逐渐减弱。
在过去几个月里，两个原本作为主要支撑的因素发生了显著变化。摩根士丹利策略师在其报告中指出：「两大关键支持要素在最近几月已出现重大转变。」
过去一年间，摩根士丹利一直偏好内地上市的中国股票。然而情况正在改变，因为中国的A股市场在过去一年下跌约6%，而同样包括境内外上市公司的中国股票指数则上涨了近4%。
中国政府背景的资金曾经被用于支撑国内股市价格，但如今迹象显示这种动力在减弱，并且这些资金可能暂时休整或退出行动。与此同时，摩根士丹利的汇率预测有所调整，预计人民币年底将稳定在约7.1这一水平，相比之前预测的贬值有了变化。
贬值本会使中国股票以外币计算的价值下降，但同时也能促进出口增长，提振整体经济。据该银行观察，中国市场对中国的A股利润预期正在下调。
今年内，关于如何管理对中国市场的敞口问题成为了各大投行策略师的主要话题。此前，摩根大通、瑞银财富管理和野村控股等机构已纷纷调整中国股票的推荐策略。而Barclays的策略师Kaanhari Singh则持更乐观态度，在最近的一次投资建议中表示看好中国的股票市场潜力。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Morgan Stanley Drops Preference for Onshore Stocks as China Bets
新闻日期：2024-09-23
原文摘要：
Investors should stop prioritizing Chinese stocks listed on the mainland over those trading overseas, according to Morgan Stanley.The US bank pointed to reduced buying by the so-called national team and lower chances of yuan depreciation as key factors that will undermine the appeal of Chinese shares listed onshore.“The two biggest supporting factors have shifted significantly over the past couple of months,” Morgan Stanley strategist wrote in a note. The bank had maintained a preference for the mainland-listed shares for at least the last year.China’s onshore has fallen around 6% this year, underperforming the almost 4% rise of the , which includes stocks listed inside and outside of the country. Chinese state-linked funds have to help prop up prices in the country’s domestic stock market. But Morgan Stanley says that the national team’s momentum is slowing down, and these funds are likely to take an “interim break.”The US bank recently changed its view on the yuan exchange rate, which it now thinks will stabilize at around 7.1 towards year-end, compared with its previous forecast of a depreciation. Although a weakening yuan would lower the value of Chinese stocks in foreign currency terms, it could also increase exports and so give a boost to the wider economy. Morgan Stanley added that it was seeing more downward revisions in earnings estimates for Chinese A-shares.How best to manage exposure to China has became a major talking point for bank strategists this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently for Chinese stocks, following similar moves by UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura Holdings Inc. But Barclays Plc strategist Kaanhari Singh sounded a more bullish note last week, telling investors that Chinese stocks were
