中国人民银行行长近期在记者会上宣布了一系列广度与深度并存的货币刺激措施，以期重振中国世界第二大经济体的发展步伐，并表明中国政府对于经济增长放缓及投资者信心低迷的高度关注。此举标志着自2015年以来，下调关键短期利率和减少银行存款准备金要求至历史最低水平的首次联合公布。这一动作直接涉及到了中国经济命脉中最为敏感的部分。
行长在记者会上宣布了将关键短期利率下调，并减少了银行需要保持的储备资金数量，这是为了刺激经济增长并稳定金融市场，这在至少近一年的时间内第一次以如此明确的方式共同发布。这些措施与降低个人贷款成本、放宽第二套房购买规则等政策相结合，旨在通过增加市场流动性来提升房地产市场的活力。
这一系列举措随后引发了中国股市出现明显的反弹，基准300指数上涨4.3%，接近抹平全年跌幅的前景。尽管该指数目前仍比2021年高点下跌超过40%。
此举显示了中央政府对于确保实现今年约5%左右经济增长目标的重视，并表明它们采取了一系列综合措施以实现这一目标。市场对此反应积极，大宗商品价格上升，人民币汇率相对稳定，而中国10年期国债收益率也有所回升，这在某种程度上反映了市场对政策支持的信心。
然而，中国政府一直努力在不依赖大规模刺激措施的情况下复苏经济，这种策略与以往的周期性危机中的大手笔投入形成鲜明对比。近来经济增长放缓至5个季度来的最差水平，已经考验了领导人容忍度——在过去三年中有两年的目标未能实现。
中央银行的一系列激进政策举措对提振市场信心起到关键作用。这些措施需要与其他经济政策协调一致，尤其是财政政策的跟进措施。对于中国的消费者需求增长问题，分析人士认为这是当前经济复苏的关键短板之一。
中国人民银行行长的公开亮相，显示了政府在应对金融市场压力时采取了一种更为透明和积极的态度，通过提前宣布降低储备率来稳定市场情绪，避免了股票市场的剧烈波动。尽管此次政策发布被视为一种正面的信号，并在一定程度上提振了股市，但对于更大规模、更具有根本性影响的刺激措施的需求仍然存在疑问。
目前，中国政府正面临着土地销售收入下滑导致财政支出受限的局面，这对依赖增长的投资项目产生了重大打击。有分析人士指出，这一套支持政策虽然比过去有所加强，但仍远不足以被称为大规模冲击经济的强力干预，关于降低房贷利率能否真正推动房地产市场复苏的问题仍然存在不确定性。
在中国当前经济挑战加剧的背景下，人们都在期待后续是否会有更多实质性的措施出台。如果政策制定者回归观望模式，市场初期的积极反应可能会逐渐减弱。
总的来说，中国央行的一系列举措旨在缓解市场压力、提振投资者信心，并在不牺牲财政稳健性的情况下实现经济增长目标。然而，在全球经济不确定性增加以及国内挑战加剧的背景下，这一系列经济刺激措施的效果如何，还有待时间的检验。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Unveils Series of New Stimulus Measures to Revive Weak Economy
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
China’s central bank unveiled a broad package of monetary stimulus measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy, underscoring mounting alarm within ’s government over slowing growth and depressed investor confidence.People’s Bank of China governor cut a key short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the amount of money banks must hold in reserve to the lowest level since at least , appearing at a rare briefing alongside two of the country’s other top financial regulators in Beijing. That marked the first time reductions to both measures were revealed on the same day since at least 2015.Read more: Those moves were followed by a slew of other announcements that fueled gains in China’s beleaguered equity market. The central bank chief also a package to shore up the nation’s troubled property sector, including lowering borrowing costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in mortgages and easing rules for second-home purchases.Subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast on , or you listen.For the nation’s stocks, Pan said the central bank will at least 800 billion yuan ($113 billion) of liquidity support, adding that officials were setting up a market stabilization fund.While several of the measures had been anticipated, the highly publicized rollout showed authorities are taking seriously warnings that China risks missing its growth target of around 5% this year. The policy barrage likely puts that goal back within reach, but doubts remain whether it was enough to break China’s longer-term pressure and entrenched real estate crisis. Authorities have yet to unveil more forceful measures to boost demand among consumers, which some analysts view as a key missing ingredient for the economy.“It’s hard to say what silver bullet can help resolve everything,” said , Asian equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments Hong Kong Ltd. “While it’s good to have monetary easing measures that are accommodative, more needs to be done in order to help solidify fourth quarter growth.”After a slow start, markets embraced the policy package. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index of shares ended the session 4.3% higher, close to erasing losses for the year, though the gauge is still down more than 40% from its recent peak in 2021. Commodities markets gained and the yuan was little changed against the dollar. China’s 10-year bond yields rose 3 basis points to 2.06%, erasing an earlier decline to a record low. Policymakers in Beijing have been trying to revive the economy without resorting to the bazooka stimulus China deployed in previous downturns, but piecemeal efforts have been ineffective. Growth recently slowed to its worst pace in five quarters — a that’s testing the leadership’s tolerance for missing its high-profile annual target for the second time in three years.“The purpose of today’s briefing is to inject confidence into the market, judging by the fact that the authorities revealed measures in one go,” said , head of China economics at Macquarie Group Ltd. “The stimulus push will still need coordination from other policies — particularly follow-up policies from the fiscal side.”The Federal Reserve’s bigger-than-expected half-percentage point slash has given central banks across Asia more room to move. But making money cheaper won’t lift the economy if Chinese consumers don’t want to spend because layoffs are looming amid sliding corporate and property prices are still falling. New home prices their biggest decline last month from the previous period since 2014. Pan’s decisive display of ramped up monetary policy now sets the stage for the Finance Ministry to its own bid to defend the growth target. A plunge in revenue from land sales has held back fiscal spending this year, crippling indebted local governments’ ability to invest in growth-boosting projects.“It is too far from being a bazooka,” ANZ chief greater China economist said of the package. “We are not sure how much the mortgage rate cut will induce a property recovery.”Read more: The central bank governor unveiled his big policy shift at his first high-profile press conference since March, appearing alongside securities regulator , and , head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration. The trio kicked off their first joint public briefing at 9 a.m. before China trading began, ensuring their roll out of steps to investor sentiment and stem a selloff in equities had maximum impact on markets. Government briefings typically start later in the morning.Among their policies were new financial tools to expand liquidity for equities, which would help listed companies and major shareholders buy back shares and raise holdings.Read this next: The PBOC chief also effectively mapped out monetary policy for the rest of the year, exemplifying his more transparent approach. Pan used a similar briefing in January to a RRR cut two weeks before it was effective, as authorities tried to halt a stock-market rout.The question now is whether this is all a prelude to more substantial measures to come, said , deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.“If policymakers go back into wait-and-see mode,” he added, “the initial burst of market enthusiasm might fade.”
