中国央行推出广泛刺激政策后，基准债券收益率出现反弹迹象。此前一系列措施包括下调政策利率及银行存款准备金要求，促使部分投资者从债市撤出并转向风险资产。结果导致10年期政府债券的收益率在创下2%的新低后有所回升。
对于长期效果而言，分析师观点不一；不过短期内可以明确看到的一点是：市场风向由保守转为冒险，安全避险资产如国债受到冷落。这种动态可能给央行一些喘息机会，因为过去投资者持续押注经济放缓的举动引发了债券市场的涨势。汇丰银行亚太宏观经济研究主管指出：“这次政策转变值得注意，如果这些工具能成功提振投资者情绪并重燃市场活力，那么它对经济的中长期影响可能是积极的。”
中国国债收益率上升了3个基点至2.06%，香港上市的中国概念股票指数（恒生中国企业指数）涨幅高达5.1%。
针对刺激措施的影响，某私募股权投资管理公司联合投资负责人预计，10年期政府债券的利率可能会上调10到15个基点。然而，尽管已经采取了这一行动，但有分析师及交易员仍认为未来几个月内国债收益率跌至2%以下的可能性依然存在。
中国人民银行官员暗示还有更多宽松政策即将到来，这将对债市构成下行压力。“我预计最终收益率会降至低于2%，”ING银行大中华区首席经济学家表示，“如果今年稍后出现更多的放宽措施，我很可能会看到它调整到大约1.8%。”
近期的行动显示，中国人民银行在努力与债券市场的投资者抗衡。担心若政策利率突然上升导致银行资产受损，央行采取了一系列措施包括调查小型农村金融机构的交易活动、买入短期债券和卖出长期债券以拉平收益曲线。
南京证券分析师指出，由于年初以来持续上涨后投资者获利了结压力增大，加之股市上涨及风险偏好情绪推高了市场情绪，中国政府债券价格下跌。估值变得过高且持仓集中，使债市受到抑制。
中国人民银行采取的宽松措施比预期更为广泛，这让交易员对未来政策变动难以预测。“这次调整出乎意料，使得我们对未来的动向感到迷茫。”该分析师补充道。
整体而言，在一系列刺激政策的影响下和市场情绪转变的带动下，中国债券市场正在重新评估其价值；10年期国债收益率可能因此上调至2%以上。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China’s 10-Year Bond Yield Falls to 2% for First Time on Record
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
China’s benchmark bond yield rebounded from a historic low after the central bank’s widespread stimulus package pushed bullish investors away from the bond market and .The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds declined to a record low of 2% after the People’s Bank of China unveiled measures including a policy rate cut and lower reserve requirement for banks. But the potential economic implications of these moves and fueled risk appetite and sent bond yields higher once again.While analysts were divided on the long-term effectiveness of the wide-ranging package, the short-term impact was clear: a shift toward risk and away from safe haven assets such as government bonds. This may relieve pressure on the People’s Bank of China, which has been trying to slow a debt market rally that indicates investors are betting on a prolonged economic slowdown.“This move is noteworthy because if these tools succeed in rebooting investor sentiment and reviving animal spirits, that could have a positive medium-term impact on the economy,” said , head of Asia macro research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “An increase in equity market activity and confidence could stimulate growth, eventually leading to higher bond yields and a stronger yuan as the economy strengthens.” The yield on the was up 3 basis points at 2.06%. Yields on jumped 5 basis points, the most in six weeks, to 2.19%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, closed up 5.1%.China’s rates market will reprice in the wake of the stimulus announcement, with 10-year government bond yields moving 10 to 15 basis points higher, said , co-chief investment officer of U-Shine Private Equity FD Mgt Co. But despite Tuesday’s moves, some analysts and traders still think there is scope for the 10-year yield to fall below 2% in the longer term. PBOC officials hinted at more easing measures to come, which will ultimately put pressure on bond yields.“It will be interesting to see if the PBOC steps in again to try and protect the 2% level, but I am personally expecting it to move below 2% at some point,” said , chief economist for greater China at ING Bank NV. “If we see more easing later in the year, it would not surprise me to see it move down to 1.8% or so.”The People’s Bank of China has tussled with bond market investors this year, worried that banks will take a balance sheet hit should policy rates suddenly rise. Traders had also interpreted its moves as an attempt to stop a deflation mentality from becoming entrenched among traders.It has also launched probes of the trading activity of small rural lenders, and bought short-term bonds and sold longer maturity bonds in an apparent attempt to steepen the yield curve.The decline in Chinese government bond prices on Tuesday may also have been fueled by investors taking profits after a prolonged rise this year, said , an analyst at Nanjing Securities. The rally in stocks and the risk-on mood suppressed the bond market, where valuations have become quite stretched and long positions too crowded, he said.The PBOC’s easing measures have been broader than expected, making it harder for traders to anticipate future moves, Yang added.
