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在周二这个令人振奋的日子后，中国股市经历了四年来的最大涨幅，这得益于当局推出了最新的刺激政策大招。然而，许多人并不相信这次的增长能持续太久。市场观察者预计，在中国政府措施带来的短期上涨之后，关注点很快会重新回到长期以来困扰中国经济的问题上：消费低迷、物价下跌以及难以解决的房地产危机——这些问题可能无法被近期推出的措施所克服。
一位时间投资管理公司的投资组合经理表示：“这些政府措施的效果仍然有待验证。”“许多问题的本质是需求或信心驱动的。”
今年，中国股市呈现出一波又一波涨跌的模式，大部分时间都在这种反复中度过。这主要是由于北京采取了零碎化的复苏策略，只带来了短暂的上涨。连投资者都开始不耐烦，如果本周推出的新措施未能扭转下滑趋势，他们可能就会放弃努力。
最新的刺激政策在周二触发了一波购买热潮，CSI 300 指数大幅增长4.3%，这是自2020年7月以来的最大单日涨幅。恒生中国企业指数上涨超过5%，结束了过去一年中最好的一天。这轮举措包括了提高银行放贷、对价值约5.3万亿美元的抵押贷款减少成本，以及让基金和券商能够利用央行资金购买股票等一系列措施。此外，还正在考虑建立一支稳定股市的基金。
一名新加坡Maybank Securities Pte.公司的机构股交易部门主管表示：“投资者希望看到更多措施来提振消费，普遍认为这些举措可能在下次美国大选后才会实施。”
对于长期观察市场的人来说，这样的剧情再熟悉不过了。
今年2月，在北京突然任命新的证券监管机构负责人后，股市反弹超过10%，这让一些人推测这可能是当局将采取更强硬的措施来结束股市跌势的一个信号。两个月后，吴宣布了一项包含九点改革措施的计划，这些措施被认为是近十年来力度最大的。交易者起初对这个努力表示欢迎，导致CSI 300指数上涨约6%。然而，在经济增长持续令人失望、信心下滑的情况下，市场基准迅速恢复了下跌趋势。
目前，大多数基金经理预计至少短期内将从最新一轮刺激措施中得到一定的提振。“我确实看到短期积极的市场反应，因为有真实的流动性影响和潜在的买盘动力来支持中国股市。”Magellan Investments Holding Ltd. 的长期与短期股票部门负责人说，“然而，通胀压力的根部问题和房地产下行周期仍然存在，并将持续对消费以及经济增长产生拖累。”
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新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Stock Traders Worry Policy-Fueled Gains May Be Shortlived
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
capped their best day in over four years on Tuesday after authorities rolled out the latest stimulus bazooka. But few think the party will last.Market watchers expect gains in the world’s second-largest equity market to be fleeting as focus will soon revert to Beijing’s long-standing problems: weak consumption, falling prices and an entrenched property crisis — challenges that the latest won’t be able to fix.“A lot of the issues are demand or confidence driven,” said , a portfolio manager at Timefolio Asset Management Co. “The effectiveness of these government measures remains yet to be seen.”Chinese equities have been trapped in a start-stop cycle of gains and losses for most of this year as Beijing’s piecemeal approach to reviving the market produced only brief rallies. Even are growing impatient and there’s a risk that they may throw in the towel if Tuesday’s measures fail to reverse the downward trend. The latest stimulus measures set off a wave of buying on Tuesday which propelled the CSI 300 Index to a 4.3% jump — its biggest one-day advance since July 2020 — at the close. The Hang Seng China Enterprises surged more than 5% to round off its best day in over a year.The steps announced included moves to boost bank lending, a reduction in borrowing costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in mortgages, and a measure to allow funds and brokers to tap the central bank’s funding to purchase equities. Authorities are also weighing a stock stabilization fund.“Market participants would like to see more, perhaps other moves to boost consumption, and the general consensus seemed to be those would not be forthcoming until after the US elections” said , the head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities Pte. in Singapore. “Hong Kong stocks rose but we will have to see if those gains can hold.”For long-time market watchers, the narrative is all too familiar.In February, shares rebounded more than 10% from the month’s low after Beijing appointed as the head of its securities regulator in a surprise move that some said may foreshadow more forceful measures to end the rout.Two months later, Wu unveiled a of nine-point reform measures that were considered to be the most forceful seen in a decade. Traders initially applauded the effort, pushing the CSI 300 Index up by about 6%. But as growth continued to disappoint and confidence kept sliding, the benchmark gauge quickly resumed its declines.For now, most money managers expect at least a temporary boost from the latest round of stimulus measures.“I do see short term positive market reaction as there is real liquidity impact and potential buying momentum to support Chinese equities,” said , head of long-short equities at Magellan Investments Holding Ltd. “However, the fundamental deflationary pressures and property downcycle remains and will continue to weigh on consumption and hence economic growth.”
