进入10月，一场潜在的选举干扰高潮即将来临，为美国选民、政治家和政府官员带来了焦虑与紧迫感。
虽然俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京声称支持前总统唐纳德·特朗普，但伊朗——莫斯科在乌克兰战争中的重要盟友——则急切地希望能阻止他重返白宫。为此，伊朗黑客团体正忙于入侵特朗普竞选团队的系统，并泄露任何被发现的信息，同时还策划对其进行暗杀。
美国司法部预计不久后将宣布对与伊斯兰革命卫队密切关联、疑似实施此次网络攻击的伊朗黑客组织进行指控。这一消息很可能在本周五公布。此外，这一行动还包括对华盛顿记者和其他人的账户发动的攻击。
至于中国这个曾被认为是选举中不可忽视的关键角色国家，其立场似乎有些摇摆不定。目前，北京的主要关注点集中在地方选战上，它们采取的影响操作旨在破坏公众对基本民主程序的信心。
近期的私人情报简报为选举工作人员和国会议员揭示了这场信息战争的真实面貌：在接下来两个月内，虚假信息加剧，网络攻击风险最大。这与2016年和2020年的局势有相似之处，美国官员们指出俄罗斯仍然是最活跃的国际影响力威胁，其他几个国家则通过互联网传播旨在煽动分裂、削弱选民对选举过程信心的信息。
然而，在即将来临的选举周期中，情况出现了一些前所未见的新特点。俄罗斯对特朗普的支持可能比以往更加全面；与此同时，作为俄罗斯盟友的伊朗正在这一战役中采取相反立场。中国在行动上的不确定性使局势变得复杂多变。而让美国官员担忧的是，犯罪分子用于冻结城市、公司和医院运营的技术手段可能会被利用于选民投票过程中。
根据情报，联邦官员已加强了非机密和机密简报的频率，并为参议员举办了一次闭门会议。此外，在前一周对众议院情报委员会的高级机密简报也引发了争论：共和党质疑俄罗斯意图的情报基础，这与过去特朗普总统质疑美国情报部门关于俄罗斯干涉评估以及指责FBI和美国情报机构制造虚假叙述的情况类似。
然而，今年的一个明显变化在于美国政府更积极地警告可能出现的选举威胁。旨在在大选当日或后续验票过程中减少外力影响的努力包括对民众进行提前教育。这是与以往做法的大不相同：当时的奥巴马政府花费数月时间正式指控俄罗斯干涉2016年总统选举，这一行动发生在特朗普击败希拉里·克林顿之后。
无论幕后势力支持哪位候选人，美国网络安全和基础设施安全局（CISA）局长珍妮·埃斯特利表示：“他们的两大目标是削弱对美国选举及其民主制度的国家安全信任，并播撒党派分裂。”她强调了所有外国对手的共同追求。
目前，选民极度分化的情况使得一些对选举干预的看法也存在分歧。每当特朗普警告称“某地”正试图操控投票时——这一指责频率和强度在不断上升——他通常是指针对其国内政治对手以及选举工作者的指控。而民主党人在谈及干涉时，则更多指向俄罗斯及其偏爱特朗普的事实。
参议员安格斯·金（独立，缅因州）强调了联邦情报部门提供的信息：“对于来自国外势力的虚假信息和对选民不信任的来源加以防御并公布是合理的。”他提到了亚历山大·汉密尔顿在其《联邦党人文集》第68篇中对外国干预美国政治威胁的深刻见解，而“这种观点在二百多年后的今天依然具有前瞻性和针对性”。
参议院情报委员会的负责人马克·华纳（民主党）在最近的一次听证会上警告称：“外敌干涉我们选举的积极性前所未有的高涨。”
考虑到拜登政府对乌克兰的支持，11月的投票结果对于俄罗斯具有重大意义。
“普京认识到，在美国塑造公众舆论和影响大选是削弱西方对乌克兰支持、破坏美国国际地位的低成本手段。”华纳说。
在最近向公众发布的报告中，美国情报机构指出，俄罗斯和伊朗利用生成人工智能技术来增强其选举影响力行动。这些情报官员表示，这种技术的应用并非革命性突破，而是允许外国势力快速生产出质量更好的内容。
据称，俄罗斯可能使用生成人工智能与常规编辑工具结合，为副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的演讲制造假版本，在听觉上让她的话音与实际所说不符，并添加额外的话语。然而，利用人工智能制作视频仍存在技术难度，较为拙劣的应用很容易被识别出真伪。因此，俄罗斯继续使用传统手法发布虚假视频和脚本以传播其信息。
美国情报部门的发现与微软公司的报告相互印证：显示俄罗斯黑客最初对拜登退出竞选这一情况措手不及，并在卡玛拉·哈里斯接替拜登后，一段时间内仍发布指责拜登家族腐败的视频。前微软威胁分析中心负责人克林特·瓦茨指出：“普京阵营花了大约几周的时间来确定如何针对哈里斯进行策略，以及他们想要采取哪些攻击路线。”
“你可以看到俄罗斯黑客将所有注意力集中在此次美国大选上。”瓦茨补充道。
在这个关键的选举周期里，各种各样的挑战和不确定性让美国及其盟友面临前所未有的考验。情报机构、政府官员和私营部门都在努力识别并应对这些威胁，以确保选举过程的公正性和透明度。
新闻来源：www.nytimes.com
原文地址：Crunchtime for Election Interference: October Is the Month of Mischief
新闻日期：2024-09-26
原文摘要：
Federal officials battling foreign interference in the coming election say they are entering what may be the most perilous period of the campaign: October, when the prospect for mischief runs high and the time to react runs short. While the Russians make little attempt to hide their support for former President Donald J. Trump, the Iranians — among Moscow’s most important suppliers in the war in Ukraine — desperately want to stop him from returning to office, and are busy hacking into his campaign and dumping whatever they find, as well as plotting to assassinate him. The Justice Department is expected to announce, likely as soon as Friday, the indictment of an Iranian hacking group closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for the hack of the Trump campaign, along with efforts to attack the accounts of Washington journalists and others. And China, once expected to be a major player in the election, seems uncertain which candidate it detests more. So, for now, Beijing is focusing on local races, conducting influence operations that have the potential to undermine public faith in the basic democratic process. That has been the essence of a series of private intelligence briefings for election workers and members of Congress recently, as U.S. officials describe the stark, oftentimes confusing battlefield in which disinformation ramps up and the risk of cyberattacks is greatest. At first glance, those briefings sound right out of the playbooks from 2016 and 2020. During one such meeting on Sept. 13, U.S. officials said Russia remained “the most active foreign influence threat” and other countries were flooding the internet with messages meant to “stoke discord and undermine confidence in our electoral process.” But as the briefing went on it was clear that what may unfold in the next month and a half includes some new features that American election officials have never seen before. Russia may be fully behind Mr. Trump, despite Vladimir V. Putin’s assertions to the contrary. But in this election cycle, its efforts might be partially canceled out by Iran — Russia’s ally in most everything these days — working the other side. China’s position is a muddle. And on the election-manipulation front, there are new worries, focusing on whether techniques used by criminals to freeze up the operations of American cities, companies and hospitals could be used to similar effect as Americans prepare to vote. “What is going to be happening in the next two months is going to be an onslaught,” said Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. He said foreign powers “are getting more active, more aggressive.” The scenarios that worry American officials are legion. While the actual balloting processes being used on Nov. 5 seem safer than in previous elections — 97 percent of votes cast will involve some form of paper backup that makes recounts far more reliable — federal officials have been war-gaming the possibility that registration systems become locked up, perhaps in what may initially look like the kind of ransomware attacks that have closed down city services in Baltimore or Atlanta, or that have hit the Seattle airport. The fear is that if it becomes difficult to register voters in the final weeks before an election, it could skew the results on Nov. 5 — or, alternatively, give an opening to seemingly pro-Trump election officials who have taken power in a few key states, like Georgia, and give them an excuse not to certify the vote. Because of the threats, intelligence officials have been stepping up their unclassified and classified briefings, including a closed-door meeting for senators on Wednesday. Officials also held a highly classified briefing for the House Intelligence Committee last week, a session that quickly became contentious, with Republicans raising questions about the intelligence around Russian intentions, according to officials briefed on the meeting. Those complaints echoed Republican criticisms of years past, as Mr. Trump has questioned American intelligence assessments of Russia and Mr. Putin, and accused the F.B.I. and U.S. intelligence agencies of falsifying narratives of Russian interference. What is different this year is how aggressively the U.S. government is warning of possible election threats, hoping that a bit of advance education will reduce the ability of foreign actors to have much effect come Election Day, or in any recounts. That is a major change from eight years ago, when it took the Obama administration months to formally name and charge Russian actors with election interference, a step that came only after Mr. Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton. Jen Easterly, the head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which has primary federal authority for helping the states defend election systems, said the U.S. government this year was undertaking a far more sophisticated effort to make sure the public is aware “of what these actors are doing and how they are doing it.” No matter whom the foreign powers favor, Ms. Easterly said, they have common goals. “The two main goals are to undermine American confidence in the security of our election and our democratic institutions and to sow partisan discord,” she said in an interview. “Those are the two goals of all our foreign adversaries.” This year, officials are worried that a big portion of the ever more polarized electorate is divided even on the issue of election interference. When Mr. Trump warns that someone, somewhere is working to manipulate the vote — an accusation he makes with increasing stridency and regularity — he is usually talking about his domestic political opponents and election workers. When Democrats talk about interference, they are often pointing at Russia — and its fondness for Mr. Trump. “To the extent our intelligence services can determine that misinformation and mistrust in our election is of foreign origin, it is fair game to defend against and announce,” said Mr. King, the Senate Intelligence Committee member. Mr. King invoked Federalist No. 68, in which Alexander Hamilton called out foreign intervention in our politics as a grave threat. “It is pretty prescient,” Mr. King said. “Here it is, 200 plus years later, and we are seeing it playing out in real time.” During last week’s hearing of the Senate Intelligence Committee, lawmakers quizzed representatives of Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet, Google and YouTube’s parent company, about their efforts to defend against foreign influence efforts. Senator Mark Warner, the Virginia Democrat who leads the panel, said foreign adversaries “are more incentivized than ever to intervene in our elections.” America’s support for Ukraine under the Democratic administration means the November vote has big stakes for Russia. “Putin understands that influencing public opinion and shaping the elections in the United States is a cheap way to erode Western support for Ukraine and undermine America’s standing in the world,” he said. In their most recent report to the public this week, U.S. intelligence officials announced that Russia and Iran had been using generative artificial intelligence technology to give a boost to their election influence efforts. The intelligence officials said that the use of A.I. had not been revolutionary, but instead had allowed foreign powers to produce better material more quickly. Russia, the intelligence officials said, may have used A.I. along with standard editing tools to produce falsified versions of speeches by Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, adding words she did not say in what sounds like her voice. Still, the use of artificial intelligence in videos remains difficult to pull off, and less artful uses of it are relatively easy to identify. And so Russia has continued to use old-school fake videos, using actors and fake story lines, to push some of their messages. The intelligence agencies’ findings echoed work done this month by Microsoft, which reported a shift by Russian operatives to attack Ms. Harris. Russia appears to have been initially caught flat-footed when President Biden exited the race. And for days after Ms. Harris took his place, Russian operatives continued to push out videos accusing the Biden family of corruption, said Clint Watts, the head of the Threat Analysis Center at Microsoft. “It took the Kremlin a couple weeks to figure out what they wanted to say about Vice President Harris, what attack lines they wanted to pursue,” Mr. Watts said, adding: “You see all the Russian actors focusing on the U.S. election now.”
