东京——在周五自由民主党选举新党魁后，石破茂预计将成为日本下一任首相。作为美国的坚定盟友，石破茂将在应对中国在地区影响力增长的同时领导日本。
现年67岁的石破茂将从5日接替首相岸田文雄以及内阁大臣的职务。岸田文雄在一系列腐败丑闻导致自由民主党支持率创新低后，决定辞职并让党恢复生机、重获民众信任。
石破茂将面临物价上涨引发的公众不满、人口不断萎缩与迅速老龄化的挑战（约1.25亿人口、世界第四大经济体），以及亚太地区错综复杂的安全环境。美国正加强与其他盟友的合作，尤其是日本，以抗衡中国不断增长的力量。此外，日本还得面对加速导弹发射并可能进行第七次核试验的邻国朝鲜。
自第二次世界大战结束以来几乎不间断统治日本的自由民主党寻求在明年的例行选举前以新人形象重建公众信任。这次领导过渡始于一个月前，当时岸田文雄表示会因腐败丑闻而辞去职位。
石破茂在周五赢得党魁竞选后说：“岸田文雄坚定地做出这一决定，目的是为了让自由民主党和人民重获信心。”他表示，“我们必须作为一个整体响应他的决定。”
在腐败丑闻让大量自由民主党势力分裂后，出现了九位候选人竞逐党内领袖位置的历史性时刻，包括两位女性。石破茂击败了63岁的经济安全保障大臣坂本善英，后者有望成为日本首位女首相。
这是石破茂第五次竞选党魁。在投票中以215比194票的优势战胜对手。政治专家、东京美国圣庙大学的迈克尔·库奇克（Michael Cucek）解释称，过去之所以未能当选主要因为石破茂不会犹豫地向党内同僚指摘他们的想法无道理。
近年来，石破茂已“收敛了言辞”，如今更多成员选择支持他，库奇克表示。作为首相，人们可以预期他会是一个“平衡的领导者，在密切与美国合作的同时也关注国家自身的问题。”
石破茂出身于长期人口减少的小岛本州县鸟取。相比之下，其他党派成员可能对日本面临的长远问题不够敏感，“不是要扭转下降趋势”，而是“减轻其影响”。他还被描述为一名现实主义者、无污点的理想主义者以及台湾民主的坚定支持者。
库奇克指出，石破茂很重视与美国盟友的合作，包括韩国——两国关系紧张；菲律宾和澳大利亚。在竞选期间，甚至呼吁日本引领亚洲版北约军事联盟的创建，这是一个中国视为威胁、美国持保留态度的想法。
石破茂对于中国来说可能是个“松口气”的消息，因为他是三位主要候选人中唯一没有到过象征二战侵略行为的靖国神社的人，这一议题对中国与日本的关系尤为敏感。但这并不意味着他会在面对中国的挑衅时软弱。库奇克表示，“他是一位军事专家，始终是如此。”一直以来主张建立强有力的自卫队。
中国外交部未对石破茂选举结果作出评论，将其视为内政事务。
发言人林健在例行新闻发布会上说道：“中日关系长期健康稳定发展符合两国人民的根本利益。”
然而，对于台湾访问的反对意见依然存在。这与石破茂一个月前的举动一致。
新闻来源：www.nbcnews.com
原文地址：Former defense minister set to lead Japan amid efforts to counter China’s growing power
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
TOKYO — Shigeru Ishiba is set to become Japan’s next prime minister after the governing Liberal Democratic Party elected him as its new leader on Friday, as the U.S. ally takes on a growing role in countering China’s influence in the region. Ishiba, a straight-talking former defense minister, will take office on Tuesday when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his cabinet ministers resign and Ishiba is elected his successor by members of the LDP-controlled parliament. Ishiba, 67, will face public anger over rising prices, as well as difficult demographic and labor issues in a country with a shrinking and fast-aging population of about 125 million and the world’s fourth-largest economy. He is also contending with a complicated security environment in the Asia-Pacific region, where the U.S. has been strengthening ties with Japan and other allies in an effort to counter China’s growing power. Japan has another volatile neighbor in North Korea, which has been accelerating missile launches and may be on the verge of its seventh nuclear test. The LDP, which has ruled Japan almost uninterrupted since the end of World War II, is seeking to regain public trust with a fresh face ahead of a general election that must be held by October of next year. The leadership transition was set in motion last month when Kishida said he would step down after a series of corruption scandals that sent his party’s approval ratings to record lows. Kishida “resigned from his post with great determination and made this decision so that the Liberal Democratic Party could be reborn, and regain the trust of the people once again,” Ishiba said Friday after winning the leadership race. “We must all respond to his decision as one.” A record nine lawmakers, including two women, ran for party leader after most of the LDP’s powerful factions dissolved over the corruption scandals, making it easier to enter the field. After no candidate received a majority in the first round of voting, Ishiba won in a runoff against economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, who would have been Japan’s first female prime minister. This was Ishiba’s fifth time running for party leader. He defeated Takaichi in a vote of 215 to 194. Part of the reason the outspoken Ishiba failed in the past is because he did not hesitate to tell other members of his party that “their ideas are unsound,” said Michael Cucek, an expert in Japanese politics at Temple University in Tokyo. But Ishiba has “curbed his tongue” in recent years, Cucek said, and “enough of them voted this time for him to become party president.” As prime minister, Ishiba can be expected to be “a moderate leader who is going to be working closely with the United States but also very in tune with the problems of this nation,” Cucek said. Ishiba is from the small, rural Japanese prefecture of Tottori, which has been losing population for a long time. “He’s very aware, unlike other members of his party, that Japan’s problems are chronic, and it’s a story not of trying to reverse the downward trends, but to lessen their impact,” Cucek said. In addition to being a realist, Ishiba is also an idealist who has never been tainted by scandal, Cucek said. And like Kishida, Ishiba favors “a more robust Japanese defense posture,” Cucek said. Ishiba is very interested in working with U.S. allies, Cucek said, including South Korea, with which Japan has historically had a tense relationship, as well as the Philippines and Australia. During the leadership campaign, Ishiba even called for Japan to lead the creation of an Asian version of the NATO military alliance, an idea that China finds extremely threatening and the U.S. has resisted. Ishiba is also a supporter of Taiwan, the self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. But Beijing is most likely “breathing a sigh of relief” that Ishiba will be Japan’s next leader, Cucek said, as he was the only one of the three leading candidates with no history of visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression that is a sensitive issue in China-Japan relations. That doesn’t mean Ishiba will be weak in the face of Chinese provocations. “He’s a defense wonk, and has always been one,” he said. “He has always advocated for a robust Japanese military, and that’s what is going to be happening in East Asia.” The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined to comment on Ishiba’s election Friday, saying it was an internal affair. “The long-term healthy and stable development of Sino-Japanese relations is in the fundamental interests of the people of both countries,” spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular news briefing in Beijing. Lin did, however, express opposition to foreign political leaders visiting Taiwan, as Ishiba did last month. Arata Yamamoto reported from Tokyo, and Jennifer Jett reported from Phuket, Thailand.
