在接下来几个月里，欧元很可能会下跌。这一预测基于欧洲服务业通胀水平的减缓以及欧元区经济面临的挑战，尤其是与美国联邦储备系统(Fed)可能实施的利率政策相比，这显示出不同之处。根据汇丰银行（HSBC）的说法，随着欧元区服务行业的价格涨幅放缓，欧洲中央银行将有可能加快降息步伐。汇丰银行外汇策略师尼克·安德鲁斯在其研究报告中指出：“降低的服务业通胀率应该促使欧洲央行加速利率下调。”然而，最近的数据似乎显示欧元区内经济增长疲软。
相比之下，美国经济的相对稳健表现使得市场对美联储减息周期的预期似乎有些过于乐观。根据汇丰银行的观点，在2024年底之前，欧元可能从当前的1.12美元降至约1.08美元，并在2025年第三季时进一步跌至大约1.05美元。这一评估表明了未来汇率变动的趋势。
而针对另一部分预测，意大利裕信银行（Unicredit Research）也表达了一种观点，即短期内欧元对美元的波动范围可能会保持在1.11至1.12美元之间。这是基于市场预期美联储与欧洲央行降息幅度差异可能不太大的情况下做出的判断。据Unicredit的研究团队指出，“当前预测暗示美联储今年将降息70个基点，而欧洲中央银行则为50个基点；至于到2025年7月时，美联储计划减息185个基点，相比之下，欧洲央行仅为170个基点。”
尽管欧元在弱于预期的欧元区经济数据和市场对十月份欧洲央行降息的担忧下，并没有突破1.11美元的低位；而同样地，在预期中更为宽松的降息政策下，它也未出现显著上涨至超过1.12美元的情况。综上所述，这表明短期内汇率变动的波动性可能会限制在这一区间内。截至当前时间点，欧元兑美元的价格为1.1160美元，略有下跌约0.2%。
新闻来源：www.wsj.com
原文地址：Euro Expected to Fall in Coming Months as Inflation Eases, Economy Stutters
新闻日期：2024-09-27
原文摘要：
1355 GMT – The euro is likely to decline in the coming months as eurozone services inflation eases, the eurozone economy struggles while the Federal Reserve could cuts interest rates by less than the market expects, HSBC says. “Slowing eurozone services inflation should allow the European Central Bank to accelerate the pace of rate cuts,” HSBC forex strategist Nick Andrews says in a note. Recent data also point to weaker eurozone growth, he says. In contrast, relatively solid U.S. economic growth makes market expectations for the Fed’s rate cut cycle look excessive, he says. The euro could fall to $1.08 by end-2024 and to $1.05 by the third quarter of 2025 from $1.1200 currently, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com) 1350 GMT – The euro could remain within a $1.11-$1.12 range against the dollar ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data next week as markets expect smaller differences in interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, Unicredit Research forex strategists say in a note. “Forward rates now imply roughly 70 basis points of further cuts by the Fed this year versus 50 basis points by the ECB; and 185 basis points versus 170 basis points, respectively, by July 2025,” they say. This difference is too small to lift the euro well above $1.12, while weak eurozone data and prospects of an October ECB rate cut failed to drag it below $1.11 either, they say. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1160. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
