在应对房地产市场压力之际，中国政府最近出台了迄今为止规模最大的稳定措施，旨在降低高达 5.3 万亿美元房贷的利率，并放宽二套房购买时的首付要求至历史最低水平。
央行副行长在周二召开的新闻发布会上透露，该举措将平均下调个人贷款者的存量房贷利率 0.5个百分点。同时宣布，购买第二套房产的家庭首付款比例最低可降至 15%，这一政策确认了 Bloomberg News 的报道内容，并凸显出中国政府防止经济增速因房地产行业放缓而减缓的决心。
面对潜在的贸易保护主义增加与全球经济前景不稳的威胁，该计划进一步表明北京方面急于采取措施以支撑亚洲最大经济体的发展。与此同时，经济学家们预测中国可能难以实现今年的增长目标。
银行包括摩根大通、花旗和美国银行在内的机构皆持此观点。此外，他们也提到了有关中国房地产市场的最新动向，并建议关注 Bloomberg Daybreak 广播节目或相应的平台获取更多资讯。为了进一步提升国营企业购买库存房产的融资效率，央行将提高其再贷款计划的资金支持比例至100%，这是自全球金融危机以来首次实施的大幅增加措施。
此轮政策调整预计将惠及约 1.5亿房贷持有者，平均每年可减少他们的利息支出达 1,500亿元人民币（约合 210亿美元）。尽管这一举措将中国平均房贷成本降至纪录低点，但考虑到银行通常要等到明年才会调整现有贷款利率，大部分家庭并未享受到这一优惠。
对于大型金融机构而言，政策变化对利润和边际收益的影响中性。原因是新的资金释放为银行提供了更多流动性，并且预期存款利率也会跟随上升。此外，中国政府还宣布将首次向最大规模的银行提供超过十年以来的额外信贷额度支持，旨在帮助这些机构应对利润下滑和资本短缺的问题。
在经历了多次存贷款利率下调以抵消低利率对收入的影响之后，中国各大商业银行的总利润仅增长了 0.4%，这是自2020年以来最缓慢的增长速度。同期，银行净利息边际收益继续下降至创纪录的1.54%（6月底），远低于维持合理盈利能力所必需的1.8%。
在政策持续收紧和市场预期房价将继续下滑的情况下，购房者对购买第二套房产的兴趣可能不会因这一波支持措施而显著提高。荷兰ING银行大中华区首席经济学家指出，“这一步是对方向的一种认可”，并补充道，“但除非后续有更多财政刺激举措跟上，否则它可能不足以推动经济增长。”
对于房地产市场复苏而言，稳定或恢复房价和消化过剩库存是必要条件。直到这些条件得到满足，增长放缓的拖累作用才会减轻。因此，中国房地产市场的挑战仍将持续多年，而8月销售数据再次下滑表明，政策宽松措施的影响力逐渐减弱，且购房者担心未来房价将进一步下跌。
“对于房地产市场的复苏来说，有两个关键点需要实现：首先，房价需要稳定或回升；其次，过剩房产库存需回归历史平均水平。在此之前，经济增长将受到持续影响。”上述ING经济学家强调。
在当前经济低迷情绪下，消费者不大可能因价格继续下滑而选择承担更大额度的房贷来购买第二套房产。荷兰ING银行大中华区首席经济学家补充道，“因此，在提供更显著财政补贴之前，这一系列政策包难以充分激活房地产行业和整体经济。”
最终，中国政府将面临如何在维持市场稳定与促进经济增长之间找到平衡点的压力，这将是其必须面对的长期挑战之一。
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：China Property Stimulus Includes Mortgage Rate Cut, Change to Second Home Rules
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
China unveiled its biggest package yet to shore up its beleaguered property market, lowering borrowing costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in mortgages and easing down-payment requirements for second home purchases to a historical low. The will cut outstanding mortgage rates for individual borrowers by an average of 0.5 percentage point, Governor said at a press conference on Tuesday. The minimum down-payment ratio on second home purchases will be lowered to 15% from 25%. The plan, confirming by Bloomberg News, underscores Beijing’s urgency to stem a housing-led slowdown in Asia’s largest economy as it faces the prospect of increasing protectionism and a shaky global outlook. The moves comes as economists at banks including , and Bank of America Corp. predicted that China will of delivering on its growth target this year. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast on , or you listen.The PBOC didn’t specify whether the mortgage refinancing plan this year will apply to first-home purchasers only, which would be the same as its first reduction , or expand to also include second-home buyers. Mortgage rates for purchasing second homes are much higher than for first homes. Homeowners will be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders first, Governor Pan said. Regulators will then consider whether to allow borrowers to refinance with a different bank, he added. Mortgage refinancing between banks, if later approved, would be the first time since the global financial crisis and would likely ramp up competition among lenders.Separately, the PBOC will ramp up its re-lending program for state-owned firms to acquire unsold property inventories. It will now provide 100% of the principal of bank loans for such purchases, up from announced in May, Pan said. A Bloomberg Intelligence of Chinese property developer shares rose 4.6% on Tuesday, though it’s still down 31% from this year’s high in mid-May. Dollar bonds issued by developers were little changed Tuesday morning, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.“This package is China’s biggest and widest supporting measures on home loans yet, as it covers both new home-buying and outstanding purchases,” said Yan Yuejin, vice president of Shanghai E-house’s research arm.Policymakers have taken forceful steps to lower financing costs this year including a central government-guided mortgage rate floor for first home purchases. But such moves have mostly benefited new property buyers, exacerbating the disparity with existing homeowners that has driven a wave of early mortgage repayments and lenders in recent years.Currently, existing mortgages carry an average interest rate of about 4%, compared with 3.2% on newly issued loans for a first home and 3.5% for a second home, according to data compiled by China Real Estate Information Corp. in late August. The move will ease mortgage burdens for an estimated 150 million people, cutting their annual interest expenses by about 150 billion yuan ($21 billion), Pan said. While China has pushed average mortgage costs to a record low this year, most households haven’t benefited because banks won’t reprice existing loans until next year.Still, it will likely add pressure on the nation’s biggest banks, which have been struggling with record low margins, sinking profits and rising bad loans. Pan said the new round of interest-rate adjustments will have a neutral impact on bank profits and margins, given that more funding is freed up and deposit rates will follow suit. Officials also announced on Tuesday they would to the largest lenders for the first time in more than a decade, to help them battle with eroding profits and capital shortfalls. Banks have resorted to multiple deposit rate cuts to mitigate the impact of lower loan rates. Combined profits at China’s commercial lenders rose 0.4% in the first half, the slowest pace since 2020, according to official data. The sector’s net interest margins have continued to decline, hitting a record low of 1.54% at the end of June, well below the 1.8% threshold regarded as necessary to maintain reasonable profitability.The reduction to the minimum down-payment ratio for second-home buyers follows a sizable in May. Top regulators have said China will support homebuyers seeking to upgrade to bigger homes. Market watchers warned that the basket of policies is far from enough to revive the real estate sector and economy. “The package a step in the right direction, compared with the previous drip-feeding support,” said , head of China economics at Capital Economics. “But it will probably be insufficient to drive a turnaround in growth unless followed up with greater fiscal support.”Given downbeat sentiment, households are unlikely to be swayed to take on a larger mortgage to acquire a second property when price momentum is still trending downward, said , chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV. The higher portion of PBOC financing for the property destocking initiative also won’t be enough to significantly improve its takeup until more fiscal subsidies are provided, Evans-Pritchard cautioned. China’s is now into its fourth year with no signs of letting up. The slump in home sales in August as the impact of policy loosening measures waned and buyers were deterred by expectations for to keep falling.“For a recovery of the property market, two things need to happen: First, we need to see prices stabilize, if not recover. Second, we need to see excess housing inventories come down toward historical norms,” ING’s Song said. “Until then, the drag on growth will continue.”Read this next:
