香港租金即将达到历史高位，这一趋势是由大量内地人士与外籍人员涌入香港带动的。据Midland Realty的数据指出，过去六个月，租金已连续上涨并达到五年的高峰水平，仅比2019年创下的最高点低1.2%。其中，增长动力来自于今年秋季入学的内地大学生以及通过各种移民计划进入香港的人士。
值得注意的是，尽管整体房地产市场持续低迷，但租赁市场却呈现出复苏迹象——即便住宅价格已跌至八年来最低水平。租金上涨原因在于，政府实施了一系列旨在吸引人口增加的教育政策和移民政策，并且高借贷成本促使潜在购房者转为租房。然而，并非所有地区的房租涨势一致：内地学生聚集、靠近大学的地区租金恢复速度超过了疫情前；而豪华房产集中区如Repulse Bay的租金，则与2022年持平。
在高端住宅市场，银行行业的外派专业人员返回香港，新入境者常签订为期两至三年的合同。然而，这些人士对住房的支出因薪资限制而有所减少——从大流行前水平至少降低了50%，降至30,000港元到50,000港元之间（相当于约3,900美元至6,400美元），反映了对短期内业务前景的谨慎态度。
香港作为全球金融中心的地位近年来受到挑战，因北京加大了监管力度，并且与美国的外交关系紧张。长期来看，租金市场有可能会因一系列潜在下行风险而放缓。“人口增长的边际减少、收入增长停滞以及就业市场的减弱都将影响住房租金。”一家公司的高级项目策略及咨询总监诺瑞·李表示，“工资涨幅跟不上租金上涨速度，这意味着家庭需要分配更多比例的收入以满足支付需求。”
同时，香港房地产业高管詹姆斯·费舍尔指出：“尽管求租价格持续上扬，但增速已较年初有所放缓。冬季来临之际，我们对租金走势感兴趣，随着季节性需求的减少，情况将会如何发展。”
新闻来源：www.bloomberg.com
原文地址：Hong Kong Rents Near Record High on Demand From Students, Expats
新闻日期：2024-09-24
原文摘要：
Hong Kong’s rents are poised to reach a record high, buoyed by an influx of mainland Chinese and foreign nationals to the city. Rents have risen for six consecutive months to a five-year high, and are just 1.2% below a historical peak achieved in 2019, according to data from Midland Realty. The increase is being driven by mainland students arriving for the new academic school year, and foreigners entering under various immigration programs, said Midland’s chief analyst .Hong Kong’s rental sector has strengthened even as the overall real estate market remains in a prolonged slump, with residential prices slumping to an eight-year low. Rents have climbed as the government implemented a range of and education policies to boost the population. High borrowing costs have also meant that prospective homebuyers signed leases instead. Still, some districts are seeing rents recover faster than others. Rents in districts by mainland Chinese and located near universities have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Prices in Tseung Kwan O, for example, have risen almost 20% from their previous low in 2022. In contrast, rents in districts known for luxury homes, such as Repulse Bay, are on par with 2022 levels. In the high-end residential market, there is a return of expatriate professionals in the banking industry, and new arrivals are typically on two to three-year contracts, according to . But they have less to spend on housing because of tighter allowances.Housing budgets for expats have dropped by at least half from before the pandemic to between HK$30,000 and HK$50,000 ($3,900 and $6,400), reflecting a “cautious outlook on short-term business prospects,” the broker said in a report this month. Hong Kong’s status as a financial hub has come under scrutiny in recent years amid concerns over Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns and geopolitical tensions with the US. Longer term, the rental market may soften amid a raft of downside risks, analysts warn. “The marginal decline of population, stagnation in income growth and weakening job market are going to affect residential rents,” said Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at Wages aren’t growing fast enough to keep pace with rising rents, meaning households will have to allocate a larger proportion of their income to meet payments, he said.Seasonal demand may also soon fade, said Chief Operating Officer James Fisher. “Though asking prices continued to go higher, the speed of increase has cooled off compared to earlier in the year,” he said. “It’ll be interesting to see what happens to rents as seasonal demand drops off heading into winter.”
